MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW
Download
1 / 42

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 115 Views
  • Uploaded on

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW. MARCH 2014. 500-hPa. Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel). CONTENTS. * Tropics - ENSO [Neutral] - MJO * Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice) *Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks * Drought * Selected Weather Events * Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO). I. The Tropics.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW' - carol


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

MARCH 2014

500-hPa

Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)


CONTENTS

*Tropics

-ENSO [Neutral]

-MJO

*Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice)

*Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks

*Drought

*Selected Weather Events

*Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO)



LATESTMONTHLYINDICES




850-hPa Wind

Recent

Westerlies, esp. mid-month



SST & Anomalies

Subsurface


SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region

CFSv2

NMME & inputs

(6th)

CPC/IRI

CPC Consolidation



MJO (March 17, 31 Overviews)

  • MJO remains active with E.P.* entering Indian Ocean; though indicators are

    increasingly incoherent due to destructive interference with slowly evolving

    atmospheric and oceanic conditions in western Pacific.

  • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts diverge considerably for next 2 weeks.

    Some models weaken MJO as it interacts with the low frequency base state, while

    others indicate a more robust Indian Ocean MJO event.

  • Statistical models generally favor continued MJO activity.

  • MJO favors enhanced (suppressed) convection over western & central Indian Ocean

    (Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during period; also tending to oppose ongoing

    convection across the west-central Pacific associated with increasing ocean temperatures.

*E.P. = Enhanced Phase


200-hPa Velocity Potential

Anomalies (5°S-5°N)

Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation

Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation

MJO

strengthens

Faster

propagation

speeds – atmo

Kelvin waves?

Indo-Pacific

warm

pool region

Slower

propagation

speeds

Little

propagation?

Longitude


Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no additional eastward propagation of the MJO signal.



Northern Hemisphere

500-hPa

SLP


Southern Hemisphere

SLP

500-hPa


Global Temperatures

King Salmon (52F)

March 1

(record high)*

*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)


Global Precipitation

Seattle record:

9.44” (254%);

previous: 8.40” (1950)*

E.P. = Enhanced

Phase

ITCZ

S.P.

MJO

E.P.

MJO

S.P. = Suppressed

Phase

*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)


Departures clearly related

to orography (much more

so than PNP)

Precipitation

Featureless


Hawaiian Rainfall (March 2014)

Dry start followed by trade wind strengthening

Total

PNP (% of normal)

+

54

1.9”

3.4”

M

4.0”

92

3.8”

160

18.7”

~135

+: 6.46” (March 8-9)

Oahu Forest Nat’l Wildlife Refuge

Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)


Sea Ice

Arctic

Antarctic

*Annual maximum extent on March 21

2014 Arctic max is 5th lowest in record (1978-2014)

*Annual minimum extent on February 23

2014 Antarctic min is 4th highest in record (1978-2014)

L

-2

-1

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


Significant increase in

coverage of multi-year ice

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

http://projects.kmi.open.ac.uk/role/moodle/pluginfile.php/712/mod_page/content/1/u116_2_f004i.jpg




DROUGHT MONITOR

March 4

April 1*

* Okay, so data cutoff extends 8 hours into April (12z April 1st) !


http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gifhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif


Monthly-Average http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gifStream flow for the month of year

Soil Moisture Anomaly

CPC

NLDAS


V. Selected Weather Eventshttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif


Track of Cyclone Gillianhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

Borneo

Sumatra

PNG

E. Timor

March 6-26, 2014

10-min winds: 125 mph

1-min winds: 160 mph

Highest Gusts: 180 mph

Minimum SLP: 937 hPa

Java

Bali

X

Christmas

Island

Gillian also affected search

for missing

Malaysian Airlines Flight 370

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Gillian_2014_track.png


Gillianhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

“X”

Java

Approximate location

of Christmas Island

(10.5S, 105.6E)

X

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg/459px-Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg


Track of Cyclone Hellenhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

March 27-April 1, 2014

10-min winds: 145 mph

1-min winds: 155 mph

Minimum SLP: 925-hPa

Tanzania

Mozambique

Madagascar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hellen_2014_track.png


Explosive Deepening of Cyclone Hellen over http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

the Mozambique Channel

Symmetrical &

Intense CDO

(150 miles)

Eye: 12 mi

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg/515px-Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg


Hazel Landslide/Oso Mudslide in Washington statehttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

March 22, 2014

ACIS

{1500 feet long, 4400 feet wide and 30-40 feet deep}

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oso_landslide_%28WSP%29.png

Washington State Patrol


VI. Outlooks for April & AMJ 2014 & MDOhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif


APRIL TEMPhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

APRIL PRCP

AMJ TEMP

AMJ PRCP


THE ENDhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

??!

http://roflmouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/funny-animal-pictures-cute-duckling-scam.jpg


ad