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INLS 151

INLS 151. Mon April 18 2016. learning outcomes for today…. Explore relation between social media, information evaluation and decision making Distinguish between two models of decision theory (optimizing & satisficing)

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INLS 151

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  1. INLS 151 Mon April 18 2016

  2. learning outcomes for today… • Explore relation between social media, information evaluation and decision making • Distinguish between two models of decision theory (optimizing & satisficing) • Identify and describe examples of bias surrounding information behavior and decision-making

  3. Spence, P.R., Lachlan, K.A., Edwards, A. & Edwards, C. (2016). Tweeting fast matters, but only if I think about it: Information updates on social media. Communication Quarterly, 64(1), 55-71. doi: 10.1080/01463373.2015.1100644 Experiment designed to examine the impact of update speed on a social media page on the amount of cognitive elaboration (i.e. thinking about) a viewer had after exposure and subsequent judgments of source credibility (competence, goodwill, and trustworthiness) and desire for more information. Research questions / hypothesis(es): The speed of updates on a social media site will be positively associated with the perceived credibility of the site’s source through its effect on elaboration (with specific regard to risk communication, information needs to be updated frequently for the public to find it credible.) Method: participants viewed a Twitter page from the CDC on the topic of the current flu season in 3 states of speed Findings Organizations were seen as most trustworthy in the condition with immediate updates (putting needs of stakeholders first). But… as in the fairytale, social media users may rely on a “Goldilocks” heuristic, in which both too fast and too few slow updates may impact specific credibility perceptions. .

  4. Using Twitter as a news outlet can be risky. There are many cases in which false news has been spread due to a mistake made by the initial source. My question is: do news providers prepare for the risk of false information originating and being spread from their source, and what do they do, if anything, to correct this misinformation?  -Lunden It is quite evident that people are starting to use social media to seek information concerning risks or crises…I wanted to know if Twitter or other social media sites will ever start to edit or review “tweets” and posts that present information to the public?. False information seems like a heavy liability on the sites image, so is there any ideas on how to protect their credibility? -Anis YES, to an extent: machine reading/algorithms to analyze “trustworthiness” and security officers at companies like Twitter…

  5. A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

  6. “People are not accustomed to thinking hard and are often content to trust a plausible judgment that comes quickly to mind.” Daniel Kahneman. (2003). American Economic Review93 (5), p. 1450

  7. Two-systems of thought[exist in parallel] • System 1 • Intuitive, implicit more “perceptual” • Affective • Heuristic-based • Relies on mental shortcuts • Unconscious • Automatic • Evolved early • Independent of general intelligence • Relatively invulnerable to aging • Generally faster • General feeling of certitude • System 2 • Explicit and rule-based • More “analytical” • Conscious • Slow • Effortful • Controllable • Logical / abstract • Constrained by working memory, sequential • Permits hypothetical thinking • Correlated with general intelligence • Develops with age and is more vulnerable to aging

  8. Decision Theory

  9. The Classical Model:Rational Choice Theory or Optimizing Assumptions… • human beings have well-ordered preferences • people go through life with all their options arrayed before them, as if on a buffet table • we have complete information about the costs and benefits associated with each option • we compare the options with one another on a single scale of preference, or value, or utility • and after making the comparisons, we choose so as to maximize our preferences, or values, or utilities. von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

  10. The Classical Model:Rational Choice Theory or Optimizing To make the best decision: • define the problems • establish goals and objectives • generate all possible alternatives • consider the consequences of all alternatives • evaluate all alternatives • select the best alternative • implement and evaluate the decision

  11. Mathematical Decision Process Models: Expected Value Theory The rational procedure is to: • identify all possible outcomes • determine their values (positive or negative) • determine the probabilities that will result from each course of action • multiply the two to give an expected value Expected value theory says you should always choose the option with the HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUE

  12. Expected value theory indicates option 1 is best

  13. EV says you should prefer option 2 to option 1. Many people prefer 1 to 2. Why? Option 1 is a sure thing … option 2 is a gamble…

  14. $3 million is not really three times as desirable a consequence as $1 million…I would probably be MORE satisfied with an almost sure million than to risk gaining nothing…

  15. Mathematical Decision Process Models: Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) We can construct a scale, called a utility scale in which we try to quantify the amount of satisfaction (UTILITY) we would derive from each option

  16. Multiattribute Utility TheoryMAUT Assigning weights

  17. behavioral economics • assumption of complete information that characterizes rational choice theory is implausible • choice theorists treat information itself as a “commodity,” something that has a price (in time or money), and is thus a candidate for consumption along with more traditional goods Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1993). The adaptive decision maker. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  18. Satisficing model of decision making Simon argued that the presumed goal of maximization (or optimization) is virtually always unrealizable in real life, owing both to the complexity of the human environment and the limitations of human information processing. Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man, social and rational: Mathematical essays on rational human behavior. New York: Wiley.

  19. Satisficing model of decision making In choice situations, people actually have the goal of “satisficing” rather than maximizing. To satisfice, people need only to be able to place goods on some scale in terms of the degree of satisfaction they will afford, and to have a threshold of acceptability.

  20. To satisfice is to pursue not the best option, but a good enough option. Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man, social and rational: Mathematical essays on rational human behavior. New York: Wiley.

  21. To satisfice is to pursue not the best option, but a good enough option. Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man, social and rational: Mathematical essays on rational human behavior. New York: Wiley. satisficing: when you don’t have the time or just don’t care enough to do the very best

  22. info behavior & decision making Are we biased? Asking another way – do we use simplifications and shortcuts to make decisions? Like what?

  23. Traps (biases) in decision making to avoid

  24. Traps (biases) in decision making to avoid

  25. As someone who regularly uses Twitter, I've first-hand seen how social media can greatly affect people's lives, either positively or negatively. Twitter can cause things to become viral in only a matter of hours. -Grace How can these things be regulated or should they? -Kalsey However the Article and study fail to mention the critical role that social media like twitter has in places where media is censored. It has been called that Twitter and other sources of information where pivotal in Revolutions like the Arab Spring. Even now in Venezuela Twitter is used for everything… -Jorge

  26. Effective presentations • Jon Ronson’s Ted Talk, online shaming • effective? why/how?

  27. effective presentations • Jon Ronson’s Ted Talk, online shaming • effective? why/how? • thoughtful and meaningful phrasing (e.g. voiceless people, privilege, democratized justice) • concrete examples and stories • finding common ground with audience (e.g. “that sad feeling that we all get when the internet doesn’t congratulate us for being funny”) • taking apart and exploring/probing words • narrates a storyline that we are compelled to follow • big themes & repetition (beginning, middle and end)

  28. Use definite, specific, concrete language • Choose a suitable design and hold to it • Use the active voice • Omit needless words • Put statements in positive form

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