Meeting the MDGs in Africa

1. Meeting the MDGs in Africa “A question of unrelenting concern rather than despair” -Barcelona Development Agenda

2. Meeting the MDGs in Africa Context • The advent of MDGs and Africa’s commitment coincided with a transition period from structural adjustment to PRSPs. • MDGs are relevant (sets benchmarks); necessary (MDGs as ends but also means); and urgent (time-bound targets) for Africa, given the low initial human development for most African countries • The key point lies in the range of issues that MDGs raise, in terms of the fundamental development problem the continent faces today and the necessary policy interventions to address this problem

3. Goals and Targets North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa G1 Poverty T.1 Halve poverty On track Not on track T.2 Reduce hunger by half On track, minimal change Not on track, minimal change G2 Primary Education T.3 Achieve Universal Primary Education met Progress, but lagging G3 Gender Equality T.4.1 Equal Girls’ enrolment in primary school met Progress, likely to achieve target T.4.2 Equal Girls’ enrolment in secondary school Met Not on track, no change T.4.3 Literacy parity between young men and women Lagging, likely to achieve Lagging, unlikely to achieve target T.4.4 Women’s representation in national parliament Progress but lagging, unlikely to achieve Progress but unlikely to achieve target G4 Child mortality T.5.1 Reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds met Not on track, minimal change T.5.2 Measles immunization (85% of population at risk) met Not on track, minimal change MDGs at a glance: levels and trends CONTD

4. Goals and Targets North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa G5 Improve maternal mortality T.6 Reduce maternal mortality by two thirds On track, likely to achieve goal Lagging, unlikely to achieve target G6 HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases T.7 Halt and reverse spread of HIV/AIDS Threat of increase Progress but unlikely to achieve target T.8 Halt and reverse spread of malaria Threat of increase Not likely to achieve target, regressive trend G7 Environmental Sustainability T.9 Reverse loss of forest N/A Not likely to achieve target, regressive trend T.10.1 Halve proportion without clean water in urban areas met On track, likely to meet target T.10.2 Halve proportion without clean water in rural areas On target Progress, but unlikely to achieve target T.11.1 Halve proportion without sanitation in urban areas On track Lagging, unlikely to meet target T.11.2 Halve proportion without sanitation in rural areas Progress but lagging Not likely to achieve target, minimal change MDGs at a glance: Levels and trends

5. Regions in Africa Countries North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Burundi, Comoros, DRC, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda. West Africa: Burkina Faso, Benin, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo Central Africa Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic, San Tome &Principe Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe African sub-regions composition

6. Goals Sub-regions likely to achieve goals/ targets Countries in SSA that are likely to achieve the targets Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Halving poverty- North Africa except Sudan and Mauritania Child Malnutrition-North Africa Overall undernourishment-North Africa except Sudan and Mauritania Poverty: Burkina Faso, Lesotho, Botswana, Cameroon, Gambia, Mauritania . Child Malnutrition: Botswana, Chad, Gambia Overall undernourishment: Ghana, Malawi and Angola. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education North Africa except Sudan and Mauritania Both net enrollment and completion rate: Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Botswana, Cape Verde, Seychelles, Togo, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Namibia, south Africa, Gabon and Sao Tom. & Princ. Goal 3: Promote gender equality Central Africa West Africa North Africa A part of Southern Africa( 50%) Primary level education: Botswana, Lesotho, Mauritius, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. Secondary level: Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Botswana, Lesotho, and Namibia Goal 4: Reduce child mortality North Africa Mauritius, Seychelles, Cape Verde and North African countries. Goal 5: Improve maternal mortality North Africa North African countries, Botswana, Cape Verde and Mauritius Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases North African :Tuberculosis HIV/AIDS: Botswana, Zimbabwe and Uganda. Malaria: Gambia,Guinea-Bissau, Comoros, Benin, and Rwanda Central Africa, Cameroon, and Kenya. Tuberculosis: South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Angola, Gabon, Gambia and Madagascar and North African countries in all the three case (HIV/AIDS, Malaria, and Tuberculosis) Goal 7: Ensure Environmental sustainability All regions Access to safe drinking water urban Sustainable development (forest area): North African countries, Swaziland, the Gambia, and Cape Verde. Access to safe drinking water (rural): Egypt, Mauritius, Algeria, Botswana, Burundi, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Ghana and Namibia. Access to sanitation (urban): Libya, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, and Mauritius. • Most African countries are lagging behind • Data aggregation hides country and sub-regional specificties (example Uganda will likely reach Goal 1 but not other goals) • For Africa the MDGs are minimum benchmarks, given the low initial level of human development

7. Meeting the MDGs in AfricaChallenges • Synergies across MDGs facilitate the choice of policy instruments • Goal 1 – eliminating extreme poverty and hunger - likely supersedes the others, however, given that its attainment generally requires reaching the other goals • Slow GDP growth on the continent (2% on average in the 90s) has made reaching the MDGs difficult. There is an annual growth deficit of over 4%, for example, in order to reach MDG1 • Thus the emphasis on (pro-poor) economic growth in Africa is crucial to achieving Goal 1 • Above all, however, attaining the MDGs depends crucially on converting commitments to actions on the part of both donors and African countries

8. Africa and global poverty headcount figures • Africa (at the aggregate level) has the highest headcount ratio of all regions • Its change over time has been minimal

9. Poverty 1999 (headcount ratio) Africa Region Per capita Monthly Exp. (1985 PPP) Gini Coefficient (%)-Mid 1990s Required Regional GDP Growth Rate (%) Actual Average Real GDP Growth rate (%), 1999-2003 1.98 North 122 37 5.6 4.2 59.56 West 53 43 7.61 3.2 38.86 Central 77 42.3 6.7 4.4 37.01 East 38 43.4 8.12 3.5 28.17 Southern 90 47.4 6.2 2.7 37 Total Africa 76 44 6.79 3.6 40.9 (SSA) 65 43 7.16 3.1 Goal 1 by Sub-region • Slow economic growth on the continent (4% growth gap on average) has made reaching MDG 1 very difficult • Regional differences point towards specificity in pro-poor growth strategies

10. Goal 1 : Some positive signs • Chart shows SSA countries likely to halve poverty by 2015 given present rates

11. Meeting the MDGs in Africa Policy directions I • High levels of pro-poor growth and decreases in income inequality must be essential characteristics of any poverty reduction strategy in Africa • The relative weight of growth and equity is very much country-specific. In some countries, dealing with income distribution issues can be complex, and even costly. In others, accelerating growth alone may not help in meeting MDG target (examples Namibia should emphasize distribution, Ethiopia growth) • The pace of economic growth as well as the state of income distribution in Africa are determined by structural factors • These include institutional factors giving rise to good governance, as well as geography and economic structures • Increasing agricultural productivity, managing population growth which to an extent derails poverty reduction and addressing spatial distribution of poverty within African economies are crucial policy areas. These elements jointly contribute to the overall poverty trap that is now a feature of most African countries

12. Meeting the MDGs in Africa Policy directions II • Sub-Saharan Africa depends on three components for a successful drive to reach the MDGs namely: commitment, contextualization, and institutional capacity. Commitment • Pledges made and the mutual accountability of such pledges are important. In this respect a joint study by ECA/OECD to ensure greater aid effectiveness is being undertaken Contextualization • Countries have started to integrate the MDGs into their national development frameworks (PRSPs) and tailoring them into national circumstances to achieve pro-poor growth (e.g., Rwanda,Tanzania, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia) • Harmonizing a more comprehensive socio-economic development programme (beyond current PRSPs) with on-going macroeconomic programmes Contd

13. Meeting the MDGs in Africa Policy directions • Institutional Capacity: • Building statistical capacity for effective monitoring of development results • Critical is the development of a capable state that: (1) maintains peace and security; (2) creates a conducive environment for the private sector; and (3) delivers public goods efficiently • Regional cooperation is also crucial • And so is the support of the international community