U.S. Oil Dependency and Energy Security

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Pierre No?l. US Oil 'Dependence'

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U.S. Oil Dependency and Energy Security

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1. U.S. Oil Dependency and Energy Security The Data: History and Projection to 2020 Policy Analysis: Genesis, Concepts and Instruments of U.S. Oil Policy by Pierre NoŽl French Center on the United States (CFE), ifri 30 May 2002

2. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 2 US Petroleum Imports ó Historical Data and Projection to 2020 Petroleum demand in the US Domestic supply Imports: how much? from whom? Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the DOE: Annual Energy Review Database (historical), Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (projection to 2002)

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5. Pierre NoŽl

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15. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 15 Sources: DOE/EIASources: DOE/EIA

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17. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 17 US Oil Policy and Energy Security US oil policy is fairly consistent since the early 1980s Liberalization Market Building Market Securing

18. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 18 Liberalization Energy security is better served by well-functioning, self-adjusting markets, than by administrative controls on prices and allocation. Complete ďdecontrolĒ in 1981: US producers, refiners and consumers fully immersed into the world petroleum market Dismantling of the Synfuel Corp. Resistance to pressure from domestic producers on oil tariff and import control The Reagan turn ends 55 years of intervention

19. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 19 Market Building Restoring and securing the investment climate in the LDCs (Latin America, Africa, Asia, then the FSU) International legal policy Reorienting the action of the World Bank Continuing & extending the intíl market-building policy is high on the agenda set by the ďBush-CheneyĒ report of May 2001.

20. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 20 Securing the market Filling up and maintaining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Maintaining a military ďpresenceĒ in the Persian Gulf (and now in Central Asia)

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24. Pierre NoŽl US Oil 'Dependence' & Energy Security 24 Conclusions on US oil policy The US has made a fundamental choice of accepting a growing energy ďdependenceĒ There is no reasonable alternative It reaps (as others do) great benefits by trading oil with more efficient producers That is no hands-off policy: risks are mitigated through important public policies, without which the fundamental choice may be unsustainable

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