Simulation of present day climate in the caribbean using precis rcm
Download
1 / 32

Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 154 Views
  • Uploaded on

Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM. M. Mr. Arnoldo Bezanilla Marlot. SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM. Abel Centella Arnoldo Bezanilla Israel Borrajero Daniel Martinez Institute of Meteorology, Cuba. 2.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM' - breanna-blevins


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Simulation of present day climate in the caribbean using precis rcm
Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM

M

Mr. Arnoldo Bezanilla Marlot


Simulation of the present day climate in the caribbean using precis rcm
SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM.

Abel Centella

Arnoldo Bezanilla

Israel Borrajero

Daniel Martinez

Institute of Meteorology, Cuba

2

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Simulation of the present day climate in the caribbean using precis rcm1
SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM.

Abel Centella

Arnoldo Bezanilla

Israel Borrajero

Daniel Martinez

Institute of Meteorology, Cuba

3

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Outline of presentation
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION USING PRECIS RCM.

  • What is PRECIS?

  • Simulating Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS.

  • How well does PRECIS represent the Caribbean Climate?

  • PRECIS and Tropical Cyclones. Preliminary results

  • PRECIS-CARIBE Online Access to PRECIS Output

  • What have we done, future plans.

  • Summary

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Regional USING PRECIS RCM.ClimateModeling (I)

The main goal of regional climate models (RCMs) is to reproduce the main climatic features in complex terrain, where mesoscale forcing becomes important (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991) and coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs) are not sufficient for assessing local climate change (Aldrian et al. 2004).

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Regional Climate Modeling (II) USING PRECIS RCM.

An example of a region where present-generation GCMs are especially lacking in their ability to represent complex terrain and land-sea contrasts is the Caribbean zone. In this region, tropical and extra-tropical systems interact (Alfonso and Naranjo, 1996) andfrequently produce complex meteorological conditions. The sea-breeze circulation in islands and peninsulas favors the development of convective systems (Riehl, 1979). In such a complex meteorological situation, a high-resolution model is necessary for meaningful regional climate prediction

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis p roviding re gional c limates for i mpact s tudies
PRECIS USING PRECIS RCM.(Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies)

  • A Regional Modelling System derived from Hadley Centre GCM

  • Providing REgionalClimates for Impact Studies

  • PC-based regional climate model

  • It can be set up and run over any area

  • PRECIS is freely available

  • It has two resolutions ~25 km and ~50 km

  • PRECIS is a tool for dynamical downscaling

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Simulating present day climate in the caribbean using precis
Simulating Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS USING PRECIS RCM.

Quasi-observed climate PRECIS forced by ECWRF Reanalysis ERA15 (RCM ERA)

PRECIS driven by HadAM3 control run (RCM CTRL)

Climate Research Unit database was used as observed climate (CRU OBS)

RCM ERA and RCM CTRL are identical apart from their driving data.

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


How well does precis represent the caribbean climate

RCM ERA and RCM CTRL were compared with CRU OBS USING PRECIS RCM.

RCM ERA and RCM CTRL biases were also compared

Temperature and Precipitation for land areas only

How well does PRECIS represent the Caribbean Climate?

PRECIS land sea mask


Temperature rcm ctrl cru obs
TEMPERATURE USING PRECIS RCM.RCM CTRL- CRU OBS


Precipitation rcm ctrl cru obs
PRECIPITATION USING PRECIS RCM.RCM CTRL- CRU OBS


Rcm ctrl cru obs temperature and precipitation seasonal cycle for cuba
RCM CTRL- CRU OBS USING PRECIS RCM.Temperature and Precipitation seasonal cycle for Cuba

  • Warm and dry biases are evident in RCM CTRL simulation

  • Greater biases occur over Cuba and other islands

  • The dry biases are more intense in summer

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Temperature rcm era cru obs
TEMPERATURE USING PRECIS RCM.RCM ERA- CRU OBS


Precipitation rcm era cru obs
PRECIPITATION USING PRECIS RCM.RCM ERA- CRU OBS


RCM ERA- CRU OBS USING PRECIS RCM.Temperature and Precipitation seasonal cycle for Cuba

  • Warm and dry biases also exist in RCM ERA simulation

  • Greater biases occur over Cuba and other islands

  • The dry biases are more intense in summer

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Partial conclusions
Partial conclusions USING PRECIS RCM.

  • There consistency beetwen CTRL and ERA biases suggest the RCM model don’t capture very well some of the mesoscale process.

  • The significant summer dry biases observed in both simulations motivate further analysis of convective process.

  • Comparisons with GCM outputs are also needed to assess the improvement that PRECIS could produce.

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


The Frequency of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Mexico as show in Regional Climate Model simulations

  • Cyclone representation is a potential tool for:

  • Investigate and assess the Model ability to represent this type of event.

  • Investigate or project future TC behavior in the area

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Tclvs detection methodology
TCLVs detection methodology Mexico as show in Regional Climate Model simulations

  • It is designed to work with daily mean fields

  • On a grid of 0.44o (50 km), a point of minimum in surface pressure is sought so that the averaged pressure over a circumference of 6o (700 km) centered in the point is at least 5.5 hPa greater than in the point.

  • The difference between the maximum and minimum values of the wind speed in a neighborhood of 3 grid points radius (1.3o or 150 km) centered in the point of minimum pressure must be at least 40 km/h (11 m/s).

  • The end of the track of each individual vortex occurs when in two consecutive days, the points of two consecutive TCLV position are located at a mutual distance of more than 7o (800 km).

  • The above criteria were adjusted in practice by trial and error based on a detailed visual analysis of selected animated image sequences in the output of the model.

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


S Mexico as show in Regional Climate Model simulations

W

E

N


Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007





The method allow us to identify possible change in tropical cyclone activity but
The method allow us to identify possible change in tropical cyclone activity, but:

  • More experiments are needed

  • Add new fields to be used in the detection criteria.

  • Specify the definition of TCLV based on daily means of

    surface parameters using the criteria defined by

    Walsh et al. for instant(hourly mean) observations in a

    limited run of the model.

  • Adjust a theoretical Cyclone Model to obtain hourly

    values of main TCLV parameters from the mean daily

    fields.

  • Validate the definition using the adjustment to climatologic

    data.

  • Analyze the dependence of TCLVs on projected

    temperature and wind shear projections.

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis sharing results
PRECIS cyclone activity, but:(Sharing Results)

http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm

PRECIS-CARIBE: Online Access to Climate Change Scenarios in the Caribbean.

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis sharing results1
PRECIS cyclone activity, but:(Sharing Results)

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis outputs
PRECIS (Outputs) cyclone activity, but:

Examples for small island countries

Grid results over Jamaica

Grid results over Haiti

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis what have we done
PRECIS cyclone activity, but:(What have we Done)

As part of a very prominent collaborative initiative between 5C, INSMET and UWI Jamaica and Barbados

  • 15 Years Reanalysis (1979-1993)

  • 2 B1 30 Years Baseline Ensembles

    (Control Experiments) 1960-1990 (S)

  • 3 A2 30 Years de future scenarios 2070-2100 (S).

  • B2 30 Years de future scenarios 2070-2100 (S).

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis at this moment upcoming work
PRECIS cyclone activity, but:(At this moment & upcoming work)

  • ECHAM4 50km

    • Control 1960-1990 31yrs

    • A2 1990-2100 114 yrs

    • B2 1990-2100 114 yrs

  • ERA40 with sulphur cycle 50km

    • Observed 1957-2002 45yrs

  • SRES Control hourly with sulphur cycle 50km

    • 1960-1969 10 yrs

  • HadCM3 perturbed parameter ensemble members (50km)

    • 1 High & 1 Low 150 Years

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


PRECIS cyclone activity, but:(Possibilities)

  • Obtain and Use our own scenarios for climate change

  • To share the obtained results with all the scientific community, and stakeholders.

  • The improvement of the Collaboration in the Caribbean

  • Using the outputs to feed other numeric models (Hydrological, Crops models, etc )

  • The investigation of the extreme events in the future (strength, duration, frequency, season shifting, etc )

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Precis summary
PRECIS cyclone activity, but:(Summary)

  • Improvements on the Precis-Caribe Web Site, Languages, outputs added for another scenarios (HadCM3-B2) and another GCM (ECHAM4 A2 and B2 scenarios).

  • Define whether to make daily data available.

  • Add some specific variables, another domain (high res Scenario for West Indias).

  • Work more Deeply in the analysis and validation of the outputs. ERA40 Data.

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


Thanks
Thanks cyclone activity, but:!!!!

PRECIS Online Access

http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm

Email: [email protected]

Contacts PRECIS Group in Cuba

Abel [email protected]

[email protected]

Israel [email protected]

Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007


ad