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Congressional Results 2012

Congressional Results 2012. Opportunities to discuss course content. Thursday 10-2 Friday 10-12. Learning Objectives. Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election .

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Congressional Results 2012

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  1. Congressional Results 2012

  2. Opportunities to discuss course content • Thursday 10-2 • Friday 10-12

  3. Learning Objectives • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

  4. Goals of Congressperson • The Primary Goal is to Get Elected • The Next goal is to get re-elected (Mayhew, 1974)

  5. Partisanship and turnout

  6. Partisanship is Most Important • The biggest factor in Congressional election • Even in open seat elections

  7. Safe Seats • Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering • Majority Minority Districts

  8. Residential Self Selection

  9. Major Factor 2 Incumbency

  10. Incumbency • Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places • A resource that provides many benefits

  11. Incumbency • The incumbent dominates the discourse • The incumbent has the advantages • It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose

  12. Incumbent Benefit #1 - Money • Attract Money at Higher Rates • The War Chest

  13. Incumbent Benefit #2 - Name Recognition • We Vote For Who We Know • What can Incumbents Do?

  14. Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers • Run against Losers • Scare off Good Challengers

  15. Spending My Own Money

  16. Voluntary Retirements • When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. • Why people Retire?

  17. Lose<Not Run<Win

  18. How Incumbents can lose

  19. Stop Playing the Game • Get too Old • Become inattentive • Scandal

  20. Strategic Challengers can Alter This • They run when national trends favor their party • They have local advantages as well • They also have the most to lose!

  21. How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns • Attract Money • Can turn National Issues into Local Ones • Are Quality Challengers as Well

  22. What is a Quality Challenger • A person who has formerly/currently held elective office • Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency

  23. Incumbency in the house and senate

  24. House Incumbency

  25. Senate Incumbency • Senators are More vulnerable

  26. Going into 2012

  27. Breakdown

  28. Not a Wave Election

  29. Why no wave? • We hated Congress, but no one specifically • The economy still wasn’t great • The negative campaign • Obama’s Popularity (too close to 50%)

  30. The House of representatives

  31. The Results (D+8)

  32. The Importance of Partisanship • Republican Districts voted Republican, Democratic Districts voted Democratic • Balanced districts split almost evenly

  33. Republican Exposure • The Republicans had more exposure • Very Few Toss-up Seats • Probably would have survived a wave.

  34. The Democrats • Actually Won the Nationwide Popular Vote • Did not Take Back the House • Redistricting • Wasted Votes

  35. Winners and Losers 2012

  36. Redistricting • The process of redrawing districts within a state • State legislatures control the battle • Very Political

  37. The Role of Redistricting • A Result of the 2002 election • GOP Legislatures controlled 202 seats • Democratic Legislatures controlled 47 seats

  38. GOP Redistricting Tactics • Create safer seats • Remember the lesson of 2002

  39. Republicans Have A Structural Advantage • Democrats are more compacted • Democratic areas are overwhelmingly democratic • Democrats are “safer”

  40. Regional Voting Democrats Republicans South Upper Midwest • New England • California • West Coast

  41. Money and the House

  42. The 2014 Election • Not Many Toss-up Seats • Difficult to Reassemble Presidential Coalition • 6 year Itch

  43. The Senate

  44. The Dynamics • The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend • 23 Democratic Seats • 10 Republican Seats • Democrats have a 53-47 lead

  45. Where Were They?

  46. The Results

  47. What Explains the Results • Incumbency • Partisanship • Candidate Factors

  48. Indiana • Supposed to be safe GOP • Richard Mourdock. • The GOP Loses by 6%

  49. Missouri • Clair McCaskill is very vulnerable • Cross-over spending in the primary • Todd Akin loses by 15%

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