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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004. ATTIKO METRO S.A. Anna Anastasaki. Objectives of the Study. Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996) Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2) Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

FOR THE

OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

ATTIKO METRO S.A.

Anna Anastasaki


Objectives of the Study

  • Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996)

  • Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2)

  • Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

  • Travel Forecasts for August 2004

    • Normal Operation of the City

    • Olympic Trips


Study Area : Attica Region – Zonal System


Population 1996


Population 1996


Trips 1996

Trips

Trip Rates


Daily Person Trips by Purpose

Typical

Summer


Main Mode Split

Typical

Summer


Hourly Demand Distribution – Private Modes


Hourly Demand Distribution – Public Transport


PLANNING

FACTORS

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

(PT) NETWORK

HIGHWAY

NETWORK

HB TRIP GENERATION

GENERALISED COST

PER PT MODE

( Bus, Metro)

HIGHWAY

MINIMUM

COST PATHS

PT MINIMUM

COST

PATHS

GENERALISED COST

CAR, TAXI

PRODUCTIONS/ATTRACTIONS

DAILY TRIPS

SUB-MODE CHOICE MODEL

PT GENERALISED COST

MAIN MODE CHOICE

MODEL

TRIP DISTRIBUTION

EXTERNAL

TRIPS

MATRIX CONVERSION

ORIGIN-DESTINATION (O-D)

NHB TRIPS

MOTORCYCLES, TRUCKS

HIGHWAY

ASSIGNMENT

PCU VEHICLE O-D

TRIP TABLE

PT PASSENGER

O-D TRIP TABLE

PT

ASSIGNMENT

NO

YES

YES

NO

FINAL HIGHWAY

ASSIGNMENT

FINAL PT

ASSIGNMENT

SATISFACTORY

CONVERGENCE

SATISFACTORY

CONVERGENCE

Strategic Planning Transport Model Structure (EMME/2)


HB Trip Production Models

  • Classification Models

    • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other)

    • Car Ownership (CO, NCO)

    • Household Size (1-2, 3-4, 5 members)

    • Household Income (low, medium, high)

    • Zone Group Characteristics


HB Trip Attraction Models

  • Regression Models

    • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other)

    • Independent Variables

      • Retail Job Positions

      • Non-Retail Job Positions

      • Population


Trip Generation Models Calibration

Trip Category Trip Rate Trip Productions Diff %

(Pred-Obs/Obs)

CO

HBW1,65 4,57%

HBS0,98 5,52%

HBO1,11 5,04%

3,74 4,96%

NCO

HBW0,54-9,44%

HBS0,32-8,42%

HBO0,44-8,13%

1,30-8,75%

Overall 2,672,08%


Mode Choice Models

  • Sub-mode Choice

    • Zone level

    • Binary logit models

    • Alternatives : bus, metro

    • Six (6) trip categories

  • Main Mode Choice

    • Zone group level

    • Multinomial or nested logit models

    • Alternatives : walk, car, taxi, public transport

    • Six (6) trip categories


Trip Distribution Models

  • Zone group level

  • Gravity model

  • Six (6) trip categories

  • Four (4) main modes

  • Inner ring effects for car mode (HBW, HBO)


Trip Assignment

  • Highway Network

    • 10 classes of users

    • BPR volume-delay functions  links

    • HCM volume-delay functions  intersections

  • Public Transport Network

    • Six (6) trip categories

    • Transit time function by mode


Network Data - 1996

  • Centroids1246

  • Nodes 5000 signalised: 1030

    priority: 670

  • Centroid connectors 5300

  • Road links 12000

  • Transit lines 470

  • Bus stops 1730

  • Metro stations 23

  • Pedestrian links 12800


Network Calibration

  • Highway Network

    • GEHoverall: 6,0

       sector level: 4,8 – 8,8

  • Public Transport Network

    • GEHbus: 9,3

      metro: 7,7


Highway Network - Summer 1996


Public Transport Network - Summer 1996


Travel Demand Forecasts - 2004

  • Network Scenarios

    • Basic (1)

    • Alternative (4)

  • Trip Matrices

    • Summer Period Trips

    • Olympic Trips

  • Time Periods

    • 8-9: morning peak

    • 17-18: afternoon peak

    • 22-23: evening peak


Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

  • 400 zones

  • Olympic Highway Network (main and secondary)

  • Trip Matrices Data from EMME/2 Transport Model

  • Exclusive use by “Athens 2004”  test and evaluate traffic management schemes related to Olympic Venues


EMME/2 – GIS - SATURN System Integration

Unix

server

Window NT

Running SATURN

Emme/2

scenarios

Emme/2 Matrices

Exchange Interface

Windows NTs

GIS Data

Exchange Interface

Data

Exchange Interface

Road network

GIS

database

Land use

Windows 2000


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