TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004. ATTIKO METRO S.A. Anna Anastasaki. Objectives of the Study. Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996) Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2) Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

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Travel demand forecasting for the olympic games athens 2004

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

FOR THE

OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

ATTIKO METRO S.A.

Anna Anastasaki


Objectives of the study

Objectives of the Study

  • Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996)

  • Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2)

  • Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

  • Travel Forecasts for August 2004

    • Normal Operation of the City

    • Olympic Trips


Study area attica region zonal system

Study Area : Attica Region – Zonal System


Population 1996

Population 1996


Population 19961

Population 1996


Trips 1996

Trips 1996

Trips

Trip Rates


Daily person trips by purpose

Daily Person Trips by Purpose

Typical

Summer


Main mode split

Main Mode Split

Typical

Summer


Hourly demand distribution private modes

Hourly Demand Distribution – Private Modes


Hourly demand distribution public transport

Hourly Demand Distribution – Public Transport


Travel demand forecasting for the olympic games athens 2004

PLANNING

FACTORS

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

(PT) NETWORK

HIGHWAY

NETWORK

HB TRIP GENERATION

GENERALISED COST

PER PT MODE

( Bus, Metro)

HIGHWAY

MINIMUM

COST PATHS

PT MINIMUM

COST

PATHS

GENERALISED COST

CAR, TAXI

PRODUCTIONS/ATTRACTIONS

DAILY TRIPS

SUB-MODE CHOICE MODEL

PT GENERALISED COST

MAIN MODE CHOICE

MODEL

TRIP DISTRIBUTION

EXTERNAL

TRIPS

MATRIX CONVERSION

ORIGIN-DESTINATION (O-D)

NHB TRIPS

MOTORCYCLES, TRUCKS

HIGHWAY

ASSIGNMENT

PCU VEHICLE O-D

TRIP TABLE

PT PASSENGER

O-D TRIP TABLE

PT

ASSIGNMENT

NO

YES

YES

NO

FINAL HIGHWAY

ASSIGNMENT

FINAL PT

ASSIGNMENT

SATISFACTORY

CONVERGENCE

SATISFACTORY

CONVERGENCE

Strategic Planning Transport Model Structure (EMME/2)


Hb trip production models

HB Trip Production Models

  • Classification Models

    • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other)

    • Car Ownership (CO, NCO)

    • Household Size (1-2, 3-4, 5 members)

    • Household Income (low, medium, high)

    • Zone Group Characteristics


Hb trip attraction models

HB Trip Attraction Models

  • Regression Models

    • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other)

    • Independent Variables

      • Retail Job Positions

      • Non-Retail Job Positions

      • Population


Trip generation models calibration

Trip Generation Models Calibration

Trip Category Trip Rate Trip Productions Diff %

(Pred-Obs/Obs)

CO

HBW1,65 4,57%

HBS0,98 5,52%

HBO1,11 5,04%

3,74 4,96%

NCO

HBW0,54-9,44%

HBS0,32-8,42%

HBO0,44-8,13%

1,30-8,75%

Overall 2,672,08%


Mode choice models

Mode Choice Models

  • Sub-mode Choice

    • Zone level

    • Binary logit models

    • Alternatives : bus, metro

    • Six (6) trip categories

  • Main Mode Choice

    • Zone group level

    • Multinomial or nested logit models

    • Alternatives : walk, car, taxi, public transport

    • Six (6) trip categories


Trip distribution models

Trip Distribution Models

  • Zone group level

  • Gravity model

  • Six (6) trip categories

  • Four (4) main modes

  • Inner ring effects for car mode (HBW, HBO)


Trip assignment

Trip Assignment

  • Highway Network

    • 10 classes of users

    • BPR volume-delay functions  links

    • HCM volume-delay functions  intersections

  • Public Transport Network

    • Six (6) trip categories

    • Transit time function by mode


Network data 1996

Network Data - 1996

  • Centroids1246

  • Nodes 5000 signalised: 1030

    priority: 670

  • Centroid connectors 5300

  • Road links 12000

  • Transit lines 470

  • Bus stops 1730

  • Metro stations 23

  • Pedestrian links 12800


Network calibration

Network Calibration

  • Highway Network

    • GEHoverall: 6,0

       sector level: 4,8 – 8,8

  • Public Transport Network

    • GEHbus: 9,3

      metro: 7,7


Highway network summer 1996

Highway Network - Summer 1996


Public transport network summer 1996

Public Transport Network - Summer 1996


Travel demand forecasts 2004

Travel Demand Forecasts - 2004

  • Network Scenarios

    • Basic (1)

    • Alternative (4)

  • Trip Matrices

    • Summer Period Trips

    • Olympic Trips

  • Time Periods

    • 8-9: morning peak

    • 17-18: afternoon peak

    • 22-23: evening peak


Traffic management model saturn

Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

  • 400 zones

  • Olympic Highway Network (main and secondary)

  • Trip Matrices Data from EMME/2 Transport Model

  • Exclusive use by “Athens 2004”  test and evaluate traffic management schemes related to Olympic Venues


Emme 2 gis saturn system integration

EMME/2 – GIS - SATURN System Integration

Unix

server

Window NT

Running SATURN

Emme/2

scenarios

Emme/2 Matrices

Exchange Interface

Windows NTs

GIS Data

Exchange Interface

Data

Exchange Interface

Road network

GIS

database

Land use

Windows 2000


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