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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004. ATTIKO METRO S.A. Anna Anastasaki. Objectives of the Study. Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996) Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2) Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

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TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

FOR THE

OLYMPIC GAMES ATHENS 2004

ATTIKO METRO S.A.

Anna Anastasaki


Objectives of the study
Objectives of the Study

  • Analysis and Evaluation of the Existing Conditions (Summer 1996)

  • Development of a Strategic Planning Model (EMME/2)

  • Development of a Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

  • Travel Forecasts for August 2004

    • Normal Operation of the City

    • Olympic Trips





Trips 1996
Trips 1996

Trips

Trip Rates



Main mode split
Main Mode Split

Typical

Summer




PLANNING

FACTORS

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

(PT) NETWORK

HIGHWAY

NETWORK

HB TRIP GENERATION

GENERALISED COST

PER PT MODE

( Bus, Metro)

HIGHWAY

MINIMUM

COST PATHS

PT MINIMUM

COST

PATHS

GENERALISED COST

CAR, TAXI

PRODUCTIONS/ATTRACTIONS

DAILY TRIPS

SUB-MODE CHOICE MODEL

PT GENERALISED COST

MAIN MODE CHOICE

MODEL

TRIP DISTRIBUTION

EXTERNAL

TRIPS

MATRIX CONVERSION

ORIGIN-DESTINATION (O-D)

NHB TRIPS

MOTORCYCLES, TRUCKS

HIGHWAY

ASSIGNMENT

PCU VEHICLE O-D

TRIP TABLE

PT PASSENGER

O-D TRIP TABLE

PT

ASSIGNMENT

NO

YES

YES

NO

FINAL HIGHWAY

ASSIGNMENT

FINAL PT

ASSIGNMENT

SATISFACTORY

CONVERGENCE

SATISFACTORY

CONVERGENCE

Strategic Planning Transport Model Structure (EMME/2)


Hb trip production models
HB Trip Production Models

  • Classification Models

    • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other)

    • Car Ownership (CO, NCO)

    • Household Size (1-2, 3-4, 5 members)

    • Household Income (low, medium, high)

    • Zone Group Characteristics


Hb trip attraction models
HB Trip Attraction Models

  • Regression Models

    • Trip Purpose (Work, Social, Other)

    • Independent Variables

      • Retail Job Positions

      • Non-Retail Job Positions

      • Population


Trip generation models calibration
Trip Generation Models Calibration

Trip Category Trip Rate Trip Productions Diff %

(Pred-Obs/Obs)

CO

HBW 1,65 4,57%

HBS 0,98 5,52%

HBO 1,11 5,04%

3,74 4,96%

NCO

HBW 0,54 -9,44%

HBS 0,32 -8,42%

HBO 0,44 -8,13%

1,30 -8,75%

Overall 2,67 2,08%


Mode choice models
Mode Choice Models

  • Sub-mode Choice

    • Zone level

    • Binary logit models

    • Alternatives : bus, metro

    • Six (6) trip categories

  • Main Mode Choice

    • Zone group level

    • Multinomial or nested logit models

    • Alternatives : walk, car, taxi, public transport

    • Six (6) trip categories


Trip distribution models
Trip Distribution Models

  • Zone group level

  • Gravity model

  • Six (6) trip categories

  • Four (4) main modes

  • Inner ring effects for car mode (HBW, HBO)


Trip assignment
Trip Assignment

  • Highway Network

    • 10 classes of users

    • BPR volume-delay functions  links

    • HCM volume-delay functions  intersections

  • Public Transport Network

    • Six (6) trip categories

    • Transit time function by mode


Network data 1996
Network Data - 1996

  • Centroids  1246

  • Nodes  5000  signalised : 1030

    priority : 670

  • Centroid connectors  5300

  • Road links  12000

  • Transit lines  470

  • Bus stops  1730

  • Metro stations  23

  • Pedestrian links  12800


Network calibration
Network Calibration

  • Highway Network

    • GEH  overall : 6,0

       sector level : 4,8 – 8,8

  • Public Transport Network

    • GEH  bus : 9,3

       metro : 7,7




Travel demand forecasts 2004
Travel Demand Forecasts - 2004

  • Network Scenarios

    • Basic (1)

    • Alternative (4)

  • Trip Matrices

    • Summer Period Trips

    • Olympic Trips

  • Time Periods

    • 8-9 : morning peak

    • 17-18 : afternoon peak

    • 22-23 : evening peak


Traffic management model saturn
Traffic Management Model (SATURN)

  • 400 zones

  • Olympic Highway Network (main and secondary)

  • Trip Matrices Data from EMME/2 Transport Model

  • Exclusive use by “Athens 2004”  test and evaluate traffic management schemes related to Olympic Venues


Emme 2 gis saturn system integration
EMME/2 – GIS - SATURN System Integration

Unix

server

Window NT

Running SATURN

Emme/2

scenarios

Emme/2 Matrices

Exchange Interface

Windows NTs

GIS Data

Exchange Interface

Data

Exchange Interface

Road network

GIS

database

Land use

Windows 2000


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