Psychology of Weather Prediction Atmospheric Sciences 452 Spring 2019

1. Psychology of Weather PredictionAtmospheric Sciences 452Spring 2019

2. Psychology of Weather Prediction • The psychological element is crucial. Must strive to be mentally neutral about forecasts. Think like Mr. Spock (or Data) • In some ways, meteorologists are the last people you want to be making forecasts, because we love interesting weather and tend to forecast it too frequently. • Sometimes forecasters with great technical knowledge have poor performance because of psychological reasons!

3. Potentially Good Forecasters

4. Psychology of Weather Prediction • When many things are happening at once, meteorologists often focus on one of them to the detriment of others. • Humans like conceptual models and often hold on to them even when reality is at odds with them. • Humans are deterministic animals and often push uncertainty away when we shouldn’t.

5. Major Psychological Elements • LOVE Meteorologists love interesting weather and tend to overforecast it • OVERCOMPENSATION We tend to excessively compensate for previous error. This can produce a classic sinusoidal error evolution. • MACHO There is a tendency to go for extreme or improbable situations. If you hit, it is like meteorological cocaine high! • INSECURE Going with MOS or NWS forecast or fearing to deviate from them substantially.

6. The Bottom Line • Forecasting is very important and critically affects people’s lives. It requires professional detachment.

7. Understanding How Our Customers Use Weather Forecasts • Psychological studies are required to understand how people interpret and use forecasts. • How do we express predictions in a way to maximize understanding and correct response? • A particular issue is probabilistic prediction. How communicate uncertainty? (UW Prof. Susan Joslyn of Psychology is working on this)

8. Communication Issue: Poor Icons

9. NWS Precipitation Icons

10. And a “slight” chance of freezing drizzle reminds one of a trip to Antarctica

11. New NWS Icons

12. New Icons

13. Study by Professor Joslyn and students

15. The Winner

16. Getting the Correct Response to Forecasts • Recently, excellent tornado forecasts in Joplin, MI and other locations were unable to stop massive deaths and injury…shows the need for psychological studies. • Forecasts were very skillful but folks are not taking the correct actions. • Also true with Hurricane Katrina.

17. National Weather Service is Putting Increasing Emphasis on IDSS (Impact-Based Decision Support Services) IDSS are forecast advice and interpretative services the NWS provides to help core partners, such as emergency personnel and public safety officials, make decisions when weather, water and climate impacts the lives and livelihoods of the American people. 

18. IDSS

19. Summary • Making very skillful forecasts is only half the battle. • Just as important, and harder, is to get society to pay attention and to respond appropriately to save lives and property and to secure maximum economic benefit.