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Sustainable Energy for All A focus on efficiency and climate change Kandeh K. Yumkella, Director-General WMO, Geneva, 23.3.2012. The Age of Planetary Boundaries and Resource Scarcity 3 billion more middle class consumers expected 80% rise in steel demand by 2030

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Sustainable Energy for All

A focus on efficiency and climate change

Kandeh K. Yumkella, Director-General

WMO, Geneva, 23.3.2012


  • The Age of Planetary Boundaries

  • and Resource Scarcity

  • 3 billion more middle class consumers expected

  • 80% rise in steel demand by 2030

  • Since the turn of the century, 147% increase in real commodity prices

  • December 2010, FAO food price index at all time high (2010 to 2011 wheat

  • prices rose by 75%)

  • 100% increase in average cost to bring a new oil well into production in last

  • two decades

  • TGIF

  • Water stress

2


3


  • By 2030:

  • Universal Access

  • Double the historical rate of improvement in Energy Efficiency

  • Double the share of Renewable Energy in the overall mix

4


Implications of achieving universal modern energy access
Implications of achieving universal modern energy access

20

40

Additional energy demand in the

Energy for All Case

0.7%

1.1%

15

30

World energy demand in the

central scenario

Gigatonnes

Billion tonnes of oil equivalent

10

20

Additional CO2 emissions in the

Energy for All Case (right axis)

5

10

World CO2 emissions in the

central scenario (right axis)

0

0

World energy

demand

2030

World CO2

emissions

2030

Source: IEA

5


Final energy demand and GHG Emissions in the GEA scenarios (blue lines) and compared to a business as usual case (red line)

6

6


7 (blue lines) and compared to a business as usual case (red line)


Industrial energy intensity (blue lines) and compared to a business as usual case (red line)

Low-income developing economies

Lower middle-income developing economies

Upper middle-income developing economies

High-income developing economies

8


UNIDO database on Industrial Energy Efficiency policies (blue lines) and compared to a business as usual case (red line)

http://ieep.unido.org/

9


10 (blue lines) and compared to a business as usual case (red line)


Temperature profiles for one of the GEA scenarios and for a business as usual development. Climate sensitivity of 1.5-4.5 degrees C from IPCC 2007 AR4

11

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