Can energy production scale
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Can Energy Production Scale? PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Can Energy Production Scale?. Our Waveform of Consumption. Choices and Challenges for the Current Century. Three Main Challenges. Electricity Production:  per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency Electricity Distribution:  Aging grid already at capacity

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Can Energy Production Scale?

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Can energy production scale

Can Energy Production Scale?

Our Waveform of Consumption

Choices and Challenges for the Current Century


Three main challenges

Three Main Challenges

  • Electricity Production:  per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency

  • Electricity Distribution:  Aging grid already at capacity

  • Fuel Usage:  3.5 Billion gallons a day (would be more if not refinery limited)  400 million gallons a day in the US


Production and consumption on the century timescale

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale


A century of change 1900 1 vs 2000

A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)

  • Industrial Output: 40

  • Marine Fish Catch: 35

  • CO2 Emissions: 17

  • Total Energy Use: 16

  • Coal Production: 7

  • World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption


Waveforms of growth

Waveforms of Growth


The terrawatt power scale

The Terrawatt Power Scale

  • Currently we are a 14.5 TW Planet


The earth limited scale

The Earth Limited Scale

  • Scaling from the last century leads to the absurd: 235 TW of required Power

  • Well, what kind of facilities/infrastructure would need to be built to generate 235 TW of Power?


Option 1

Option 1:

  • Build 40,000 more of these worldwide:


Hey what about world wide wind

Hey What about World Wide Wind?

  • We would need to build 50 million of these 5 MW machines

  • This requires 75 Billion Tons of Steel  whoops, we ain’t got that much Steel left


Option 3 pave the deserts

Option 3: Pave the Deserts

  • We only need 30 million square kilometers spaced out continuously in each time zone.

  • Note that the entire Sahara desert is 9 million square km.


More earth limitations

More Earth Limitations

  • Total fuel cell production limited by amount of accessible platinum on the planet; 500 million vehicles  lithospheric exhaustion in 15 years

  • Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible amount of Cadmium or Gallium or Indium

  • Conventional Transmission media limited by available new Copper

  • Clear need for Carbon based materials (fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.


Business as usual scenario

Business As Usual Scenario

  • Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100

  • Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current world use is about 14.5 TW years)

  • 40 TWyr is compromise between current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 TWyr


Ultimately recoverable resource

Conventional Oil/Gas

Unconventional Oil

Coal

Methane Clathrates

Oil Shale

Uranium Ore

Geothermal Steam - conventional

1000 TWy (1/4 need)

2000

5000

20,000

30,000

2,000

4,000

Ultimately Recoverable Resource


Other possibilities

Hot Dry Rock

Sunlight/OTEC

Wind Energy

Gulf Stream

Global Biomass

1,000,000

9,000,000

200,000

140,000

10,000

Other Possibilities

In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient  but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?


Dollars per megawatt per unit land use per unit material use

20 KW power buoy

5 MW Wind Turbine

LNG closed cycle

Wind Farm

PV Farm

Stirling Farm

Pelamis Farm

850 Tons per MW

100 Tons per MW

1500 MW sq km

600 MW sq km

50 MW sq km

40 MW sq km

30 MW sq km

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material Use


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