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Post-Soviet Central Asia

Post-Soviet Central Asia. 2000. 1998. A Personal Experience Daene McKinney. Central Asia. Some Statistics. Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html. Syr Darya. Aral Sea Basin. Surface Water Availability Average Year Amu Darya 78 km³

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Post-Soviet Central Asia

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  1. Post-Soviet Central Asia 2000 1998 A Personal Experience Daene McKinney

  2. Central Asia Some Statistics Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

  3. Syr Darya Aral Sea Basin • Surface Water Availability • Average Year • Amu Darya 78 km³ • Syr Darya 37 km³ • Total 115 km³ • Water Balance • Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³ • Rivers ~ 50 km³ • Groundwater ~ 5 km³ • Precipitation ~ 5 km³ • Evaporation ~ 60 km³ • Available to use ~ 55 km³ • in the basin

  4. ARAL SEA Not much change over 100 years, but then …

  5. Aral Sea 1989 - 2005

  6. The Shrinking Aral Sea

  7. Aral Sea Crisis • 12 x maximum permitted DDT • 3/4 of people suffer from illness • 70 % of fishermen are pre-cancerous • 5 x death rate of former Sovietrepublics • … the environmental costs are so high that they go beyond the economic capacity of the newly independent republics in Central Asia. • - The World Bank

  8. Recent Water Balance P E Northern Aral Sea Inflow Syr Darya E P Will it dry up completely? Why or why not? Southern Aral Sea Inflow Amu Darya

  9. Does this allocation seem fair to you? Why or why not? Aral Sea Basin States:Some Statistics

  10. Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – 2000) Water used in irrigation Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts?

  11. Finding the Aral Sea

  12. Finding the Aral Sea - 2

  13. The Boats

  14. Can you say “Gydro-uzel”?

  15. Kazakhstan

  16. Almaty(where we lived)

  17. Astana - Ice City

  18. Syr Darya Basin Who should get the water? When? How can these needs be balanced? • Transboundary Water Resources: • Upstream – Kyrgyzstan • Water for electricity (heating) needed in winter • Downstream – Uzbekistan • Water for irrigation needed in summer

  19. Syr Darya Basin Ag Prod. Coal Water Keep Warm! Water Ag Prod. Natural Gas

  20. Kyrgyzstan

  21. Kyrgyz Fuel Availability USSR Breakup

  22. Toktogul Reservoir

  23. Toktogul Reservoir 1988-2000

  24. Some Kyrgyz Sights

  25. A computer lab in a Kyrgyz School Bazarbai Mambetov

  26. Central Asia Water & Energy Round Table • USAID supported • Water and energy representatives of • Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan • Created by Governments to • Develop treaty on Syr Dayra • Develop country positions on issues • Serve interests of all countries equally • Identify directions agreeable to all countries • Obtain advocacy for activities within each country • Bring work to attention of Presidents

  27. Tajikistan

  28. Turkmenistan

  29. Uzbekistan

  30. Amirkhan Kenshimov

  31. The Future

  32. Any Questions? No cameras allowed! KGB museum, Moscow, June 2000

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