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SUMMARY OF 2003 GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND PLANS FOR 2004

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SUMMARY OF 2003 GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND PLANS FOR 2004

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    1. SUMMARY OF 2003 GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND PLANS FOR 2004 Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Robert Tuleya, Hua-Lu Pan, Naomi Surgi (NCEP) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas (URI)

    3. CHANGES IMPLEMENTED IN 2003 (cont’d) Improved Mass Initialization for computation of Sea-level Pressure & Temperature. (Greatly Reduced Noise over Mountains ) Computed Virtual Temperature directly in the Mass initialization. Improved Interpolation of Winds over mountains. Improved Vortex removal algorithm in Initialization (enabled all of the vortex to be removed for weak or asymmetric storms). More consistent target wind in initialization.

    4. Track Verifications for 2003 Season

    5. Track Verifications for 2003 Season

    6. Track Verifications for 2003 Season

    7. Intensity Verifications for 2003 Season

    8. TREND IN TRACK ERROR

    9. TREND IN INTENSITY ERROR

    10. SUMMARY of 2003 SEASON Overall the GFDL was the best performing dynamical model in both basins for track, particularly in the 12 to 72h range. The GFDL Model had its lowest track errors ever in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. The average GFDL track error in the Atlantic Basin was about 15% less than 2002 and 30% less than the 2001 seasons. The GFDL model still exhibited little or no skill for intensity although the severe positive bias was removed in the Atlantic Basin. The 2003 GFDL model exhibited a severe negative intensity bias for weak storms as these storms often did not develop or incorrectly dissipated. Addressing this problem is a primary focus in the system upgrades for 2004.

    11. PROPOSED CHANGES FOR 2004

    12. SUMMARY OF CASES RUN Hurricane Isidore (2002) 18 Cases Hurricane Lili (2002) 20 Cases Hurricane Fabian (2003) 20 Cases Hurricane Isabel (2003) 23 Cases Hurricane Kate (2003) 16 Cases T. S. Nicholas (2003) 10 Cases Hurricane Claudette (2003) 7 Cases TOTAL CASES 114 Cases

    13. Intensity Forecast of Fabian with Current 2003 and New GFDL Model (Initial Time: 0000 UTC 28 August)

    14. Intensity Forecast of Lili with Current 2003 and New GFDL Model

    15. Intensity Forecasts of Isidore with 2002, 2003 and 2004 and GFDL Models

    16. Comparison of 2003 and 2004 GFDL Track Error

    17. Comparison of Operational GFDL, GFDL Upgraded in July and 2004 GFDL Hurricane Claudette (0000 UTC, 13 July)

    18. SUMMARY OF NEW 2004 GFDL MODEL New System Resulted in a Dramatic Reduction in the Severe Negative Intensity Bias for Weak Systems. The Number of Systems That Incorrectly Dissipated Was Greatly Reduced. The Overall Skill in the Intensity Prediction Was only Marginally Improved. The Average Track Error Was Not Significantly Impacted.

    19. Future GFDL Model Development Continue development of high-resolution GFDL model with Bulk microphysics. Testing of new momentum mixing scheme in operational hurricane model. Parallel testing of high resolution GFDL model with Bulk microphysics in summer of 2004 on limited basis. Possible operational implementation in 2005.

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