Advanced Hurricane Prediction
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Advanced Hurricane Prediction A plan for research and development. Naomi Surgi February, 2005. Requirements Process. Societal Impacts: More people living along coastal areas – takes longer to evacuate Evacuations are costly: ~$1M per mile of coastline evacuated

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Advanced hurricane prediction

Advanced Hurricane Prediction

A plan for research and development

Naomi Surgi

February, 2005


Requirements process

Requirements Process

Societal Impacts:

  • More people living along coastal areas – takes longer to evacuate

  • Evacuations are costly: ~$1M per mile of coastline evacuated

  • Evacuation numbers depend on hurricane size and intensity

  • More hurricane related fatalities now due to inland flooding


Stakeholder requirements

Stakeholder Requirements

  • Improved track forecast skill – where and when?

    • Extend track forecasts out to 5 days

  • Improved hurricane intensity forecasts

    • intensity at landfall – how strong?

    • onset of gale force winds at coastline (structure) – how big & when?

  • Skillful heavy rainfall forecasts out to 3 days in advance


Advanced hurricane prediction

Operational TC Forecast Issues:

  • Continued advancement of TC track forecasts

  • Improved TC intensity prediction (genesis and rapid intensification)

  • Improved prediction of TC surface wind distribution (structure)

  • Improved rainfall forecasts

  • TC waves, storm surge


Advanced hurricane prediction

TPC Atlantic 72-hr Track Forecast Errors

With the exception of “erratically” moving storms, while hurricane track prediction has shown remarkable progress, skill in predicting intensity/ structure changes is still poor. It is expected that high resolution, advanced NWP modeling systems may continue to improve track as well as intensity, structure predictions. Hurricane WRF is the next step towards this goal.


Advanced hurricane prediction

Lowest track errors on record for GFS, GFDL models and TPC!


Advanced hurricane prediction

How NOAA Improved Track Forecasts

Three components of modeling system:

  • HIGH QUALITY OBSERVATIONS(large scale environment surrounding hurricane, e.g. satellite, aircraft)

  • MADE BETTER USE OF OBSERVATIONS IN HURRICANE MODELS (advances in data assimilation)

  • IMPROVED HURRICANE MODELS(improved numerical techniques and representation of physical processes)


Advanced hurricane prediction

Advanced Data Platforms for Hurricanes

  • Environment: (Winds, Moisture, Temperature) – to define steering currents

    • Satellite:Advanced Satellite Instruments

      • (AMSU, GOES, NPOESS etc.)

    • In-situ:Aircraft (dropsondes)


Ncep global forecast system 6 hr forecast and wv imagery

NCEP Global Forecast System 6 hr Forecast and WV Imagery


Advanced hurricane prediction

Jung and

Zapotocny

JCSDA

Funded by

NPOESS IPO

Satellite data

~ 10-15% impact


Synoptic surveillance pattern

Synoptic Surveillance Pattern


Advanced hurricane prediction

Impact Of Dropsondes On NCEP Global Model Track Forecasts

Note: Improved skill at all forecast times in 2002 and 2003


Intensity guidance

Intensity Guidance

Most skill


Advanced hurricane prediction

Charley deepened

From 964 mb to 941 mb

in 4 h 35 min near

landfall – NIGHTMARE!


Advanced hurricane prediction

Science Issues to address Intensity/Structure

  • ENVIRONMENTAL FORCING

    • “good vs. bad” trough interactions

    • SST changes (including ocean subsurface)

  • CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES

    • total rainfall – organization of convection, eyewall vs. Stratiform

  • MICROPHYSICS– LIQUID VS. ICE

  • INNER CORE REGION

    • scale interaction – feedback between vortex dynamics, convective physics and environment

    • triggering and adjustment processes – eyewall replacement cycles, eyewall mixing


Advanced hurricane prediction

Science Issues – con’t

  • AIR SEA INTERACTION: OCEANIC/ATMOSPHERE BOUNDARY LAYER)

    • Air sea fluxes under disturbed conditions (sea spray)

    • Turbulence and subgrid scale mixing

    • Coupled atm/ocean model; coupled wind-wave model

  • UPPER OCEAN PROCESSES

    • SST changes – depth of warm layer (accounts for turbulent mixing, horizontal advection) e.g. Gulf Stream and loop currents, warm core eddies, cold wakes

  • LAND SURFACE PROCESSES

    • PBL fluxes – storm structure -- coupling to hydrologicprocesses


Advanced hurricane prediction

To advance TRACK forecasts AND improve INTENSITY, STRUCTURE and RAIN Forecasts:

  • Need high quality hurricane core* and environmental observations

  • Need advanced data assimilation techniques for environment and hurricane core

  • Need advanced modeling system

  • Need a “disciplined” approach for transition from research to operations, e.g. JHT, JCSDA

* critical observations for intensity/structure and rain problem


Advanced hurricane prediction

Advanced Observation Platforms for Hurricanes

  • Environment (Winds, Moisture, Temp.)

    • In-situ: G-IV, UAV’s, Driftsondes

    • Satellite: ADVANCED MICROWAVE INSTRUMENTS

  • Hurricane Core (Winds from 12 km to surface)

    • G-IV, WP-3D airborne Doppler radars

    • 88-D Level II data

  • UpperOcean (SST’s, wave height, mixed layer info)

    • AXBTs, Altimeter, ARGOS, Current Meter, Buoys


Advanced hurricane prediction

Required Data Assimilation Development

  • Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques

    • Environmental flow – in progress (some success)

    • Hurricane Interior - substantial R&D necessary*

    • Ocean data assimilation – new effort (GODAS)

  • * EMC is developing scale-dependent covariances


Advanced hurricane prediction

Hurricane WRF (HWRF) Prediction System

  • Community based next generation hurricane prediction system

  • Will replace the GFDL in 2007

  • Coupled air-sea-land prediction system

  • Advanced data assimilation for hurricane vortex

  • Advanced physics for high resolution

  • Land surface coupled to hydrology/inundation

  • Nested wave prediction

  • Coupling to dynamic storm surge (in planning)


Advanced hurricane prediction

TRANSITIONING TO HURRICANE WRF

020304050607

Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core

GFDL frozen

HWRF T&E

Continue upgrades

GFDL

Begin Physics Upgrades

HWRF Operational

Transition to HWRF

MM5

HWRF

T&E

Preliminary Test HWRF physics

HWRF

Begin R&D


Advanced hurricane prediction

  • Pre-Implementation Strategy for HWRF

  • INCREASE RESOLUTION

  • UPGRADE GFDL PHYSICS WITH GFS PHYSICS

  • IMPLEMENT MICROPHYSICS, SFC. PHYSICS

  • PUT PHYSICS IN WRF FRAMEWORK

  • MIGRATE ALL PHYSICS TO NMM, e.g. HWRF

  • CARRY OUT TEST & EVALUATION ON UPGRADED GFDL SYSTEM (GFDL FROZEN ’05-06)

  • PERFORM EXTENSIVE COMPARISONS BETWEEN GFDL AND HWRF FOR MULTIPLE SEASONS AND STORMS


Advanced hurricane prediction

  • DEVELOPMENT OF THE HWRF SYSTEM

  • Movable, nested grid (configuration, domain)

  • Advancement of physics (wheel of pain)

  • Initialization (development of DA for hurricane vortex) (LONG TERM EFFORT)

  • Coupling to HYCOM

  • Coupling to WAVEWATCH III (+ multi-scale model)

  • Coupling to LSM

  • Development/Upgrade of hurricane verification system (PPT, STRUCTURE)

  • Coupling to storm surge-wave coupled model (planning stage)

  • HWRF ensembles


The physics wheel of pain

“THE PHYSICS WHEEL OF PAIN”

Compliments of Dr. Jaiyu Zhou (NOAA/OST)

Direct Physical

Interaction of Clouds

  • - Hydrometeor type (phase)

  • - Cloud optical properties

  • - Cloud overlap (merging Cu, grid-scale cloudiness)

  • - Cloud fractions

  • - Precipitation

  • - Sfc energy fluxes

  • 4. - Convection, PBL evolution, precipitation

Radiation

Cu Scheme

Sfc & PBL

Grid Scale Microphysics


Advanced hurricane prediction

Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models

NCEP

Atmosphere and Ocean

NOS

land and coastal waters

HWRF

NOAH LSM

runoff

High resolution

Coastal, Bay &

Estuarine

hydrodynamic model

surge

inundation

fluxes

Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer

radiative

fluxes

other fluxes

winds

air temp.

elevations

currents

3D salinities

temperatures

SST

currents

HYCOM

3D ocean circulation

model

wave

spectra

WAVEWATCH III

Spectral wave model

wave fluxes


Hycom expt hurricane isabel

HYCOM Expt – Hurricane Isabel

  • MODEL:

    • HYCOM Mercator North Atlantic 1/12 degrees (∆x ≈ 7 km).

    • 26 vertical coordinates.

    • Vertical viscosity and mixing: GISS.

  • FORCING: 6-h NCEP (GFS analysis).

  • INITIAL CONDITIONS: from near-real time North Atlantic system (NRL & RSMAS) (O.M. Smedstad).

  • PERIOD: Sept. 3-30, 2003


Ssh and cross section positioning

SSH and cross section positioning

∆H~30 cm


Temperature cross sections for sept 11 15 21 30

Temperature cross sections for Sept 11, 15-21, 30


Gfdl coupled model

GFDL Coupled Model


Advanced hurricane prediction

C-BLAST BUOYS DURING FRANCES


Hurricane frances impact of coupling

Hurricane Frances – impact of coupling

Blue-GFDL operational coupled model

Red-GFDL uncoupled model


The future

The Future

Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model

Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy

Highest model resolution in areas of special interest

Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF


Advanced hurricane prediction

Technology Infusion

Joint Hurricane Testbed

Mission Statement:

The mission of the JHT is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, observational and model advances into improved tropical cyclone analyses and prediction at operational hurricane forecast centers.


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