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Power Market, Technologies & Acceptance: Status & Perspectives VGB Congress “Power Plants 2011”

Power Market, Technologies & Acceptance: Status & Perspectives VGB Congress “Power Plants 2011” Bern, Switzerland. Franz-Josef Mengede EPPSA President. Outline. About EPPSA Policy instruments for energy & climate change Power generation demand & Technologies

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Power Market, Technologies & Acceptance: Status & Perspectives VGB Congress “Power Plants 2011”

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  1. Power Market, Technologies & Acceptance: Status & Perspectives VGB Congress “Power Plants 2011” Bern, Switzerland Franz-Josef Mengede EPPSA President

  2. Outline • About EPPSA • Policy instruments for energy & climate change • Power generation demand & Technologies • Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers • Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  3. Outline • About EPPSA • Policy instruments for energy & climate change • Power generation demand & Technologies • Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers • Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  4. About EPPSA The European Power Plant Suppliers Association (EPPSA) is the voice, at European level, of companies supplying power plants, components and services. EPPSA members, located throughout Europe, represent a leading sector of technology with more than 100.000 employees and annual revenue of over 20 billion euro. Virtually all existing Power Plants in the EU have either components from or were built by EPPSA Members VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  5. About EPPSA This leading technology sector has more than 100 000 employees and an annual revenue of over €20 billion VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  6. Outline • About EPPSA • Policy instruments for energy & climate change • Power generation demand & Technologies • Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers • Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  7. Policy instruments for energy & climate change • 1997 • Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol setting binding targets for reducing GHG to an average of 5% against 1990 levels by 2012 • 2007 • The EU Heads of State and Government set the "20-20-20" targets including a reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 • They have also offered to increase the EU’s emissions reduction to 30% by 2020 on condition that other major emitting countries commit to do their fair share under a legally -binding international climate agreement • 2009 • The Copenhagen Accord endorses for the first time at global level the objective of keeping warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature • 2010 • European Commission publishes a communication which revisits the analysis of the implications of the different levels of ambitions (20% and 30% targets) and assesses the risk of carbon leakage • 2011 • European Commission adopts communication A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 setting out a plan to meet the long-term target of reducing domestic emissions by 80 to 95% by 2050 VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  8. Policy instruments for energy & climate change • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – COPENHAGEN & CANCUN • Global temperature increase shall not exceed 2 °C • Greenhouse gas emissions to be limited – concentration of CO2 equivalent to be stabilised at 450 ppm • Legally binding targets not defined • Even not a process to implement binding targets is foreseen The IPCC recommends 50 to 80 % reduction in global CO2 emissions by 2050 VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  9. Policy instruments for energy & climate change EU GHG emissions over time for selected scenarios Source: Impact Assessment - Accompanying document to the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, PRIMES, GAINS, European Commission, 2011 VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  10. Policy instruments for energy & climate change • EU ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY • “Climate and Energy Package” • the 20 – 20 – 20 rule became law in June 2009 • A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% • below 1990 levels by 2020 • Increasing the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020 • Improving the EU’s energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  11. Policy instruments for energy & climate change Energy efficiency & renewables could deliver 2/3 of the required emissions reduction Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  12. Policy instruments for energy & climate change Losses along the value chain offer significant energy efficiency opportunities Source: Graphics and pictures courtesy of EPPSA members VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  13. Policy instruments for energy & climate change But… reducing energy savings by 20% was never a binding target… Proposal for a Directive on Energy Efficiency Shall tackle 3 major issues impeding improvement of energy efficiency… * fragmented regulations and incentives to address waste across supply chain; * low level of CHP use across the EU regardless fuel savings of 30% for the same amount of heat & power * Best Available Techniques are not always reflected by new installations VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  14. Outline • About EPPSA • Policy instruments for energy & climate change • Power generation demand & Technologies • Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers • Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  15. Power generation demand & Technologies Worldwide EU Source: Eurostat, IEA, VGB Source: IEA Source: VGB Powertech, Electricity Generation - Facts & Figures 2010-2011 Fossil fuels remain the backbone of global electricity generation VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  16. Power generation demand & Technologies EU 27 Source: DG TREN, European Commission, EU-27 Energy Baseline scenario Trends to 2030 – update 2007 (2008) VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  17. 110 GW 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Power generation demand & Technologies New fossil fuel plants are needed by 2020 Period 2010 -2020 Back-up: 30 Back-up: 60 New: 185 New: 91 Coal 800 MW Units Gas 400 MW Units Source: DG TREN, European Commission, EU-27 Energy Baseline scenario Trends to 2030 – update 2007 (2008) VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  18. nuclear power plants 10.000 MW renewable energy 295.000 MW Power generation demand & Technologies The EU needs a balanced energy mix fossil fired power plants 170.000 MW Source: VGB, VDMA and BDEW, Press release VGB study reveals: Until 2020 power plant capacities of 475,000 MW have to be erected (September 2009) VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  19. Power generation demand & Technologies ...and all kinds of technologies VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  20. Outline • About EPPSA • Policy instruments for energy & climate change • Power generation demand & Technologies • Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers • Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  21. Power landscape – facing new complexities Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers Source: Graphics and pictures courtesy of EPPSA members VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  22. Uncertainty has ruled the suppliers market since 1960s 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2030 2020 Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers MW (average) Deregulation NAP II Financial crisis Coal Gas Year of commissioning Source: RWE, Dr. M. Kehr VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  23. Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers Engineering resources based on uncertainty *business as usual* 1) Figures for engineering resources are indicative to show relations only VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  24. Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers Steady commissioning based on certainty and long-term business strategy *EPPSA scenario* 1) Figures for engineering resources are indicative to show relations only VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  25. In Germany 17,630 MW coal-fired power stations were planned. But a capacity of more than 10,000 MW was stopped. Example: Datteln Unit 4 1050 MWel, bituminous coal fired Efficiency over 45% Designed to replace 3 old power plant blocks CO2 saving of 500 000 t/a State-of-the-art environment standards Local population demanded a halt to the Higher Administrative Court The Court blocked two partial construction permits. Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  26. Outline • About EPPSA • Policy instruments for energy & climate change • Power generation demand & Technologies • Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers • Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  27. Electricity demand in EU27 will increase to 2030 and beyond Many new fossil fuel plants are needed by 2020 Only a continuous ordering of new plants retains suppliers know how CO2 emissions from fossil plants must be cut to meet EU targets efficiency increase is the fastest track to cut down CO2 existing and new plants need the CO2 capture Reliable and shorter permit procedures are crucial A stable legal framework requires matching implementation at national level Public acceptance of new energy infrastructure is needed “The role of public policy is to generate the enabling environment for private sector financing to leverage investments into low carbon investments that often will increase long term productivity and to create new markets”* * Brussels, 8.3.2011, SEC(2011) 288 final. IMPACT ASSESSMENT. Accompanying document to the COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EURPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS, A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050. Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  28. Conclusions VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

  29. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Secretary General: Patrick Clerensp.clerens@eppsa.eu Policy Officer: Maria João Duartem.duarte@eppsa.eu EPPSA – European power Plant Suppliers Association Avenue Adolphe Lacomblé 59 | B - 1030 Brussels Tel: +32 2 743 2986 | Fax: +32 2 743 2990 info@eppsa.eu www.eppsa.eu VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011

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