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WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE

WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE. MARCH 15 2006. HUGH JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM LEADER. FIRE WEATHER SEASON. THIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20TH NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15 CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS. WHAT WILL WE DISCUSS TODAY?.

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WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE

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  1. WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE MARCH 15 2006 HUGH JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM LEADER

  2. FIRE WEATHER SEASON • THIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20TH • NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15 • CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS

  3. WHAT WILL WE DISCUSS TODAY? • ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS • SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED • HOW TO ACCESS OUR PRODUCTS • * YOUR FEEDBACK ON THE CONFERENCE/FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS

  4. ROUTINE WEATHER PRODUCTS INCLUDE • FIRE PLANNING FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) • NATIONAL FIRE RATING DANGER SYSTEM (NFRDS) FOR MARLBORO, VT • FIRE WEATHER GRIDS

  5. HOW TO LOOK AT FIRE WEATHER GRIDS AND OTHER PRODUCTS • GO TO http://www.weather.gov/aly • CLICK ON EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST IMAGES IN LOWER RIGHT HAND CORNER • CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER ON THE TOP • PICK CATEGORY

  6. SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED • FIRE WEATHER WATCH (FWW) • RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) • INTERNET SPOT REQUEST PROGAM

  7. FWF WEATHER PARAMETERS INCLUDE • TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER • RELATIVE HUMIDTY (DEWPOINT) • WIND • MIXING HEIGHT • TRANSPORT WINDS • VENT RATE • LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL (LAL) • HAINES INDEX • DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)

  8. EXAMPLE OF OUR FIRE PLANNING FORECAST (FWF)

  9. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FWF

  10. FIRST WE LOOK AT THE MIXING HEIGHT • LIFT THE PARCEL DRY ADIABATICALLY • WHEN IT INTERSECTS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING OF THE DAY IS THE MIXING HEIGHT • CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY

  11. WHAT ARE THE TRANSPORT WINDS? • THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED FROM THE GROUND TO THE MIXING HEIGHT • AGAIN, THIS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY • BOTH THESE PARAMETERS ARE AVERAGED OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD

  12. VENTILATION RATE ON FWF • MERELY THE PRODUCT OF TRANSPORT WIND AND MIXING HEIGHT (YES YOU CAN DO THE MATH!) • THE BEST WAY TO CALCULATE DISPERSION

  13. LIGHTNING ACTVITY (LAL) • NONE • ISOLATED/ WIDELY SCT/SLGHT CHC (15-24 POP) • 3 SCATTERED/CHANCE (25-54 POP) • 4 NUMEROUS/LIKELY (55-74 POP) • CATEGORICAL/WDSRPD (>74 POP) • LIGHTNING OF ANY KIND WITHOUT ANY RAIN!

  14. WHAT EXACTLY IS THE HAINES INDEX ON THE FWF? • DEVELOPED BY DONALD HAINES WITH THE USDA FOREST SERVICE IN 1988. • AN INDEX THAT GIVES AN INDICATION FOR A FIRE “BLOW-UP” LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

  15. HOW IS THE HAINES INDEX CALCULATED • STABILITY (T950-T850) + A MOISTURE TERM (Td925-Td850) • STABILITY TERM • 1 = 3 DEG C OR LESS • 2 = 4-7 DEG C • 3= 8 DEG C OR MORE • MOISTURE TERM • 1= 5 DEG C OR LESS • 2= 6-9 DEG C • 3= 10 DEG C OR MORE

  16. FINAL HAINES RESULT • SIMPLY ADD TWO TERMS • RANGES FROM 2-6 • 2-3 VERY LOW (STABLE) • 4 LOW (NEUTRAL) • 5 MODERATE (UNSTABLE) • 6 HIGH (VERY UNSTABLE)

  17. WHY HAINES? • HIGH HAINES INDEX STRONGLY CORRELAES WITH A DANGEROUS PLUME DOMINATED FIRE!

  18. DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI) • IS SIMPLY THE LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB LEVEL • ADVANTAGES • MAKES USE OF THE LEVEL WE LIVE • VERY EASY TO CALCULATE • DISADVANTAGES • STILL DOES NOT FACTOR IN ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS • NOT AS WELL DOCUMENTED AS HAINES

  19. THRESHOLD OF D.S.I. • (TMX-T850) LESS THAN 10C = STBL • (TMX-T850) 10-14C = COND UNSTBL • (TMAX-T850) 15-17C= UNSTBL • (TMAX-T850) > 17C=VRY UNSTBL

  20. HOW DO CAN YOU ACCESS THE FWF??? • GO TO http://www.weather.gov/ • CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER LINK ON THE RIGHT SIDE IN THE BLUE AREA • ONCE THERE, CLICK WHERE ON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST • IF NOT CURRENT PLEASE CALL US AT 1-800-239-2123!

  21. WHAT IS NFDRS • NATIONAL FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM

  22. THE NFDRS IS A NUMERIC SCALING OF THE POTENTIAL OVER A LARGE AREA FOR FIRE TO IGNITE, SPREAD AND REQUIRE FIRE SUPPRESSION ACTION. UTILITZED BY MOST STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES.

  23. MORE ON NFDRS • ROUTINE SPOT FORECAST FOR MARLBORO, VT (42 50 16 LAT 72 44 06 LON) • 1686 FEET ABOVE SEA-LEVEL • ISSUED ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE

  24. RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH • CRITERIA DURING NON-LEAF SYSTEM • FIVE DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (0.25 INCHES) • FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT • WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHER • CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE • EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS ISSUE A WARNING • 12-48 HOURS ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH • ISSUED THROUGH GFE

  25. CRITERIA FOR RFW DURING LEAF-OUT • EIGHT STRAIGHT DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (.25 INCHES) • WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SAME AS BEFORE • KETCHUM DROUGHT INDEX > 300 • http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gif

  26. ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS • CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEETING RED FLAG WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA • TWO OUT OF THREE FACTORS MET • COULD INCLUDE HIGH HAINES INDEX (6) • ADDRESS THROUGH THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO)

  27. IF WE ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, RED FLAG WARNING OR AN ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS IT WILL AUTOMATICALLY SHOW UP ON OUR THE MAP OF OUR HOME PAGE!

  28. SPOT FORECAST REQUEST • ISSUE ONLY WHEN GOVERNMENT AGENCY REQUESTS (DEPT OF FORESTRY) • GO TO OUR INTERNET SITE AND PULL RIGHT UP • CLICK UNDER FIRE AND RIGHT THERE AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE • KEETCHUM DROUGHT UPDATE AND LOTS OF FIRE WEATHER INFO THERE • A SPECIAL THANKS TO INGRID FOR HER HARD WORK!

  29. OPEN FORUM • FIRE WEATHER AFD • FORMAT (KNOTS/MPH) • UPDATE FWF CRITERIA • DSI EVEN USEFUL? • OPERATIONAL INPUT • 800-239-2123 • OTHER ISSUES

  30. PLEASE SEND ALL COMMENTS TO ME Hugh.W. Johnson@noaa.gov 518-435-9581 800-239-2123

  31. WRAP-UP • GAVE OUT FORM • ON THE INTERNET • REPORT CARD ON HOW WE ARE DOING • PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR PHONE NUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESS • THANKS FOR ATTENDING

  32. POSSIBLE FALL DATE HOW ABOUT DOING IT AGAIN IN THE FALL? TO SEE HOW WE DID!

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