The august 9 2001 lake breeze severe weather event across new york and western new england
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The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Motivation CSTAR II Project Northeast Warm Season Severe Weather

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The august 9 2001 lake breeze severe weather event across new york and western new england l.jpg

The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany


Motivation l.jpg
Motivation New York and Western New England

  • CSTAR II Project

    • Northeast Warm Season Severe Weather

    • Identify the role terrain features and land/water boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective development and evolution

    • Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology will attempt to be developed

    • Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)


Contributors to cstar ii project l.jpg
Contributors to CSTAR II Project New York and Western New England

  • Thomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at Buffalo

  • Bob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at Cleveland

  • Steven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at Sterling

  • Dr. Lance Bosart, University at Albany

  • Dr. Daniel Keyer, University at Albany

  • Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany


Slide4 l.jpg
Data New York and Western New England

  • Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC)

  • Soundings from SPC archive

  • 40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids

  • Satellite imagery

  • Radar data (High resolution KENX Archive Level IV)


Background august 9 2001 event l.jpg
Background New York and Western New EnglandAugust 9, 2001 Event

  • A hot and very humid air mass was in place over NY and New England

  • Surface temps ranging from 32˚C to 37˚C (Syracuse high temp of 100˚F <ASOS>)

  • Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 J/kg)

  • Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)


Severe weather reports l.jpg
Severe Weather Reports New York and Western New England


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Storm Reports across Northeast New York and Western New England

  • NY-VT-NH-ME

  • 21 Wind Reports

  • 2 Hail Reports


9 aug 2001 1200 utc 500 hpa raob heights temps and isotachs l.jpg
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs New York and Western New England

www.spc.noaa.gov


Slide10 l.jpg

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, New York and Western New England

Temps, Dewpoints and Isotachs

www.spc.noaa.gov


Slide11 l.jpg

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs New York and Western New England

www.spc.noaa.gov


9 aug 2001 1200 utc alb sounding l.jpg
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding New York and Western New England

www.spc.noaa.gov


9 aug 2001 1200 utc buf sounding l.jpg
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding New York and Western New England

www.spc.noaa.gov


10 aug 2001 0000 utc buf sounding l.jpg
10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding New York and Western New England

www.spc.noaa.gov


10 aug 2001 0000 utc alb sounding l.jpg
10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding New York and Western New England

www.spc.noaa.gov


Lake ontario sst s l.jpg
Lake Ontario SST’s New York and Western New England

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/


Spc1300 utc and 1630 utc day 1 l.jpg
SPC1300 UTC and 1630 UTC DAY 1 New York and Western New England


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ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis New York and Western New England

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


Slide19 l.jpg

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis New York and Western New England

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


Slide20 l.jpg

ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis New York and Western New England

500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines

250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded



Slide22 l.jpg

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


Slide23 l.jpg

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


Slide24 l.jpg

ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 6- hr forecast for 1800 UTC 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded


Slide25 l.jpg

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 00 UTC 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


Slide26 l.jpg

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 0000 UTC 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded







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40 km RUC Analyses 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

9 AUG 2001/1500-2200 UTC


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RUC: 9 August 2001/1500 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


Slide34 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/1600 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


Slide35 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/1700 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


Slide36 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


Slide37 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness (dam)

Pressure tendency (mb/hour)


Slide38 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/1900 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


Slide39 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/2000 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)


Slide40 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/2100 UTC Analysis 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)




Slide43 l.jpg

RUC: 9 August 2001/2200 UTC Analysis Satellite

2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)

2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)



Kenx radar analysis highlights of the severe weather event across new york and western new england l.jpg

KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England





Slide49 l.jpg

2141 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section across

Herkimer Co. Storm



Slide51 l.jpg

2156 UTC KENX COMP REF across

2156 UTC KENX Echo Tops


Slide52 l.jpg

2156 UTC KENX VIL Product across

2156 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity


Slide53 l.jpg

2156 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section across

Herkimer Co. Storm


Slide54 l.jpg

2202 UTC KENX VIL Product across

VIL=80 kg/m^2



Slide56 l.jpg

2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF across

2258 UTC KENX 0.5°Velocity


Slide57 l.jpg

0000 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF across

2354 UTC KENX VWP



Preliminary results l.jpg
Preliminary Results across

  • Lake breeze boundary from Lake Ontario sparked a cluster of well-organized severe thunderstorms, some of which were supercellular (marginal shear)

  • Boundary interacted with a hot, humid and unstable air mass and continued over a large area

  • 850 hPa theta-e values advected into central and eastern NY in excess of 350K

  • Surface based CAPE values well in excess of 2000 J/kg (as high as possibly 5000 J/kg) provided plenty instability and surface dewpoints in excess of 21°C an incredible amount of moisture


Future work l.jpg
Future Work across

  • To further explore mesoscale observational and model data (10-km ETA and 20-km RUC)

  • Create cross-sections of the evolution and movement of the lake breeze boundary

  • To compare this case with other possible Lake Ontario and Lake Erie cases