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Gary McMurtry Dept. of Oceanography University of Hawaii, Manoa

The Future of Industrial Society at the End of Cheap Oil* * Or, It’s Only the End of the World as We Know It. Gary McMurtry Dept. of Oceanography University of Hawaii, Manoa. I met a traveler from an antique land Who said: “Two vast and truckless legs of stone Stand in the desert….

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Gary McMurtry Dept. of Oceanography University of Hawaii, Manoa

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  1. The Future of Industrial Society at the End of Cheap Oil** Or, It’s Only the End of the World as We Know It Gary McMurtry Dept. of Oceanography University of Hawaii, Manoa

  2. I met a traveler from an antique land • Who said: “Two vast and truckless legs of stone • Stand in the desert…. • And on the pedestal these words appear: • “My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: • Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!” • Nothing beside remains, Round the decay • Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare • The lone and level sands stretch far away. • “Ozymandias” by Percy Bysshe Shelley (1817) • “Alas, poor world, what treasure hast thou lost!” • “Venus and Adonis” by William Shakespeare • “It is evident that the fortunes of the world’s human population, for better or for worse, • are inextricably interrelated with the use that is made of energy resources.” • M. King Hubbert (1969) • Of the two major aspects of Physical Chemistry, Thermodynamics sets the laws and the boundaries, Kinetics sets the pace. • In human endeavors, one can be fine in the thermodynamic sense, and still lose because the reaction rates were too slow.

  3. Addictedto Oil The USA has <5% of the global population, but uses 25% of global oil resources. The current global population is >6.5 billion. Essentially, that translates to 300,000,000 people using the energy resources of 1,625,000,000 people! Currently, 60% of the oil consumed by the USA is imported, mainly from our neighbors Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela.

  4. Properties & Uses of Oil • Amazing Energy Density (45 MJ/kg, compared with 10-30 MJ/kg for coal, 16 MJ/kg for dry wood) • Easily Transportable • Safe (relatively) & Cheaply Storable Major Uses: • Transportation Fuel for motor vehicles, trains, ships & airplanes • Fuel for Power Plants • Industrial Applications, e.g. mining, farming, manufacturing • Source of Petrochemicals, including chemical fertilizers (N,P,K)*, pesticides*, herbicides*, plastics & pharmaceuticals *Basis of the “green revolution”, as a means to ‘fix’ or reduce atmospheric nitrogen. In this usage, I include natural gas, another limited fossil fuel, and mineable phosphate, probably next on the global depletion list. K is abundant.

  5. “Excess” People are Made of Oil At the start of the Industrial Revolution, around 1850, the world population was about 1 billion. “Excess people” are defined as those currently supported by fossil fuels, especially from those products that support “Green Revolution” industrial agriculture, mining & transportation. If denied the support, by withdrawal of cheap and abundant fossil fuels, human populations will likely revert to pre-Industrial, or lower, levels. Many ecologists say we are already in human population “overshoot”, and the planet cannot much longer sustain the added load. Climate change (e.g., global warming) can only make matters worse.

  6. USA Oil Production History & Projection The US lower-48 production peak (Texas + Rest of USA) occurred in 1970; In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted this outcome to within a few years.

  7. Hubbert’s Predictions M. King Hubbert 1903-1989 From: K. S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak (2001)

  8. Campbell’s Predictions World Oil Production Colin J. Campbell, Founder, ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL AND GAS World Population These are not kooks!

  9. It’s about the Food… Made available to plants by fossil fuel Population Disaster!

  10. Global Oil Production & Prediction

  11. Global Oil & Natural Gas Depletion From: C. J. Campbell, The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil (2005)

  12. Petroleum Distribution by Region Proven oil reserves at end 2004 --Source: British Petroleum

  13. Oil & Gas are not evenly distributed From: Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005)

  14. Major Oil Fields of Saudi Arabia Ghawar Field: King of Kings, since 1951 * Site of Recent Terrorist Attempt From: Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (2005)

  15. Oil & Gas Formation Most of the world’s oil & natural gas resources were formed in two brief epochs of extreme global warming at 90 Ma and 150 Ma Oil & gas can take millions of years to form and require specific geological conditions to mature and become trapped in reservoirs First, a nutrient trap must be available From: K. S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak (2001) Bottom Line: It’s renewable, but only on geologic time scales!

  16. Evolving Oil Extraction Methods Vertical Wells, Self-Pressurized Flow Young Fields THEN (1950-1990) Lateral Well Drilling, Water Flooding Mature Fields NOW (2004-->) From: Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (2005)

  17. Crude Oil Alternatives--Alberta, Canada Oil Sands *currently 1 million barrels (MB)/day *projected to 3 MB/day in 2020 *projected to 6 MB/day “in future” *reserves equal to oil of Saudi Arabia *environmental impacts huge & scaleable Source: K. Bourzac, Dirty Oil, MIT Tech. Review, Dec. 2005

  18. USA Consumption vs. Alternative Oil Supplies

  19. Global Consumption vs. Alternative Oil Supplies

  20. The List of Alternatives CategoryBrief Comment • Heavy Oil Most helpful in near future • Oil Sands Moderate supply • Coal-Derived Liquids Moderate supply • Liquefied Natural Gas Minor supply • Natural Gas N.A. post-peak; world will soon follow • Coal Maybe 100-200 more years--see CDL • Methane hydrates Abundant on and off-shore--impacts unknown • Solar-voltaic Moderate supply • Hydro-electric Moderate supply--local impact • Wind Moderate supply--local impact • Tidal, Waves, Currents Minor supply--local impact • OTEC Scaleable to 15 TW, but impacts unknown • Biomass Land forms are net energy losers; marine? • Geothermal Minor supply--local impact • Nuclear Fission, Most helpful in far future--probably Nuclear Fusion our only long-term hope

  21. Conservation is More Than a Personal Virtue, but Oil is Fungible…

  22. And Some Words About the “Hydrogen Economy” Hydrogen (H2) is an energy carrier (think: ‘battery’), not a source. Cracking scarce hydrocarbons to get hydrogen “fuel” for fuel cells is silly. Burn the hydrocarbons, instead. Using electrical power to crack water (H2O --> H2 + 1/2O2) is an expensive proposition.Long-term, it may provide N2 reductant. Storage of high-pressure or liquid hydrogen fuel is expensive and Potentially Dangerous (think: Hindenburg)…

  23. Fossil Fuel Platform Like windmills on the sea, alternative energy technology rests upon a vast pool of fossil-fuel energy that will decrease and become more expensive over time. Industries that make alloys, turbines, solar panels, batteries, & construction equipment and transportation all rely on fossil fuels. Even coal is mined with diesel-powered equipment.

  24. ERoI: Energy Returned on Energy Invested Or, If it takes a barrel of oil to recover a barrel of oil, why bother?

  25. Magnitude of the ProblemorWhy Most Alternatives Won’t Work, or Not in Time To make up for the coming oil depletion, a 1 Gigawatt nuclear power plant needs to be built every day for the next 30 years* * To replace 10 Terawatts or 1013 watts = 10,000 new 1 Gigawatt (109 watt) plants; David Goodstein, “Out of Gas, The End of the Age of Oil”, 2004.

  26. Three Factors that Determine the Potential*Post-Oil Breakdown *If We Do Nothing From: P. Thompson, “The Twilight of the Modern World” (2004)

  27. The Four Stages of Possible Breakdown From: P. Thompson, “The Twilight of the Modern World” (2004)

  28. Future North America--2050+??? Inspired by “The Long Emergency”, J. H. Kuntsler (2005)

  29. Future of Hawaii Burdens • >1.2 million people living thousands of miles from the nearest land • ‘Standing crop’ of >0.1 million tourists, >0.1 million military • Small land area, with limited water resources • Surrounding ocean waters are oligotrophic (biological desert) Advantages • Equitable climate, inspiring natural landscape & educated, cosmopolitan culture • History of self-sustainability and export agriculture • Geothermal, biomass (?) and OTEC/cold-water agriculture potential on Hawaii Island Disadvantages • Current reliance on all things imported, including most food, goods & energy • AC high-rises, suburbs & outmoded land transportation system • Economic reliance on tourism, military & soon-to-be-extinct cheap airline industry

  30. There must be some way out of here, said the joker to the thief, There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief. Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth, None of them along the line know what any of it is worth. No reason to get excited, the thief, he kindly spoke, There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke. But you and i, we’ve been through that, and this is not our fate, So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late. All along the watchtower, princes kept the view While all the women came and went, barefoot servants, too. Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl, Two riders were approaching, the wind began to howl. “All Along The Watchtower” words & music by Bob Dylan (best performed by Jimi Hendrix at high volume)

  31. Recommended Reading The Party's Over (2003, 2005) by Richard Heinberg Power Down (2005) by Richard Heinberg Hubbert's Peak (2001) by Kenneth Deffeyes Beyond Oil (2005) by Kenneth Deffeyes Out of Gas (2004) by David Goodstein Twilight in the Desert (2005) by Matthew Simmons The Long Emergency (2005) by James H. Kunstler Related: Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (2005) by Jared Diamond (featuring Easter Island as the real-life version of Dr. Seuss’s tale: The Lorax)

  32. Capitalistic Inertia Must be Overcome! Mahalo to Brother John for his kokua!

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