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Predicting our Climate Future

Predicting our Climate Future. Human Activities and Lifestyles. Climate Change Model. Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp. etc.). GHG Emissions. Social Science Oriented Social influences H uman behavior Affluence Diet/food, geography influences Political aspects

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Predicting our Climate Future

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  1. Predicting our Climate Future Human Activities and Lifestyles Climate Change Model Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp. etc.) GHG Emissions • Social Science Oriented • Social influences • Human behavior • Affluence • Diet/food, • geography influences • Political aspects • Isolation/globalization • Economic drivers • Environmental regulations • Technology and its implementation • Energy efficiency • Alternative energy sources • Earth Science Oriented • Physics • Chemistry • Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes

  2. Emission scenarios • Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to project what our lives and activities will be for the next century. • What are the possible economic scenarios? • What changes will we have in our society? • How do these changes influence emissions?

  3. IPCC SRES • Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • Developed “stories” that would define the range of possible social systems that we may develop through the 21st century • Economic growth • Population growth • Technology development and adoption • Commitment to the environment • Globalization

  4. A: Economic Focus

  5. B: Environmental Focus

  6. Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios

  7. Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 1990 1950 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100

  8. Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2

  9. Model predictions

  10. IPCC scenarios

  11. 350.org

  12. IPCC scenarios

  13. IPCC Data • Visualization of IPCC climate model results • http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/

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