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GREENHOUSE GASEOUS EMISSION CALCULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OF TURKEY M.Nilgün EGEMEN

State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey. GREENHOUSE GASEOUS EMISSION CALCULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OF TURKEY M.Nilgün EGEMEN. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey.

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GREENHOUSE GASEOUS EMISSION CALCULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OF TURKEY M.Nilgün EGEMEN

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  1. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey GREENHOUSE GASEOUS EMISSION CALCULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OF TURKEYM.Nilgün EGEMEN

  2. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Located at the junction of Europe and Asia, Turkey is an industrializing country with Land area of 779,000 km2 Population of 70,8 million to 81 million from 2003 to 2020 GDP: US$ 205 billion to 794 from 2000 to 2020 - 3000 US$ per capita income/2000

  3. Reserves Proven Probable Possible Total Hard Coal (Mt) 428 456 245 1129 Lignite (Mt) 7339 626 110 8075 Asphaltite (Mt) 45 29 8 82 Bituminous Shale (Mt) 555 1086 1641 Hydro GWh/year MW/year 125000 125000 34729 Crude Oil (Mt) 43.1 43.1 Natural Gas (bcm) 8.8 8.8 Nuclear Uranium (t) Thorium (t) 9129 380000 3 9129 380000 Geothermal (MW/year) Electricity Heat 200 2250 4300 28850 4500 31100 Solar (MW/year) Electricity Heat 8.8 26.4 State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Turkey Has Limited Domestic Resources

  4. Electricity Demand State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey It is expected that our country’s electricity demand will grow approximately 8 % per year from 2000 onwards.

  5. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Change in primary energy consumption and supply by fuel type (MTEP)

  6. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Energy consumption in Turkey

  7. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey EMISSION CALCULATIONS Starting date: 1997 Period : 1970 – 2002 projections until 2030 for energy Coverage : National level Sectors : Energy (fuel combustion and fugitive emissions) Industrial processes Agricultural activities (manure management, enterik fermentation and burning of agricultural residues) Solid waste management (controlled ladfill)

  8. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey ROLE OF SIS SIS is the coordinator institution of Greenhouse Gaseous Emission Inventory Working Group formed under Climate Change Coordination Board. Members of this working group are: Ministry of Environment and Forestry Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Electricity Generation Cooperation Related non-governmental organisations Studies for the preperation of 1st National Communication has been going on, and it will be submitted to the Secretariat at the end of October 2004.

  9. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey EMISSIONS CALCULATED Emissions originated from fuel combustion by sectors (energy, industry, transportation and others) Coal mining Transportation of crude oil Industrial processes Agricultural activities (rice caltivation and burning of agricultural residues) Domestic livestock (enteric fermentation and manure management) Solid waste (controlled landfill)

  10. Sectors Greenhouse Gaseous Energy Amount of fuel consumed (energy, transportation, industry and other) CO2, CH4, N2O, NOX, CO, SO2, NMVOC Coal mining CH4 Transportation of crude oil CH4 Industrial Processes Industrial Processes CO2, CH4, N2O, NOX, NMVOC, CO, SO2 State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey EMISSIONS AND SECTORS-1

  11. Sectors Greenhouse Gasesous Agricultural Activities Enteric fermentation and manure management CH4 Rice caltivation CH4 Burning of agricultural residues CH4, N2O, NOX, CO Waste Solid waste (controlled landfill) CH4 State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey EMISSIONS AND SECTORS -2

  12. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey EMISSIONS NOT CALCULATED Fugitive emissions from oil and gas production, transportation and storage except crude oil transportaion Solvent use N2O emissions from fertilizer managemet Emissions from agricultural soil Emissions from halocarbons (HFCs ve PFCs) and sulphur hexaflouride consumption Emissions from treatment of wastewater and uncontrolled ladfill sites Emissions from land use and land use change

  13. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey CO2 EMISSIONS (Gg)

  14. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey CH4 EMISSIONS (Gg)

  15. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey SHARE OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN ENERGY (%)

  16. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey SHARE OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN ENERGY (%)

  17. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey SHARE OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN ENERGY (%)

  18. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey CO2 EMISSION TREND IN ENERGY(Gg)

  19. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey CH4 EMISSION TREND IN ENERGY (Gg)

  20. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey N2O EMISSION TREND IN ENERGY (Gg)

  21. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey EMISSION PROJECTIONS FOR ENERGY ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program) • MAED was used by MENR to develop the energy demand projections; • VALORAGUA was used by TEIAS to analyze the hydro power system in detail; • WASP was used by TEIAS to determine the power sector expansion and estimate unit generation and fuel consumption • levels; and • BALANCE was used by • MENR to perform the integrated overall energy sector analysis, calculate emission projections, and • estimate the economic impacts.

  22. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey BALANCE BALANCE uses a non-linear, equilibrium approach to determine the energy supply and demand balance. An energy network that is designed to trace the flow of energy from primary resource through to final energy and/or useful energy demand. Demand is sensitive to prices of alternatives and supply price is sensitive to the quantity demanded. BALANCE seeks to find the intersection of supply and demand curves. BALANCE simultaneously tries to find the intersection for all energy supply forms and all energy uses that are included in the energy network. The equilibrium is reached when the model finds a set of prices and quantities that satisfy all relevant equations and inequalities.

  23. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey The model employs a market share algorithm The market share of a specific comodity is sensitive to the comodity’s price relative to the price of alternative commodities. Constraints, government policies, preferences and the ability of markets to respond to price signals over time also affect the market share of a commodity. BALANCE simultaneously finds the intersection of supply and demand curves for all energy supply forms and all energy uses included in the energy network. Equilibrium is reached when the model finds a set of market clearing prices and quantities that satisfy all relevant equations and inequalities. The model employs the Jacobi iterative technique to find the solution that is within a user-defined convergence tolerance. Concurrently with the energy calculations, the model computes the environmental residual associated with given energy system configuration. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reported in a format that is compatible with the IPCC

  24. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Energy and Environment Review in Turkey Energy demand forecasting. Environmental issues associated with the coal/lignite mining and power generation sub-sectors. Coal Use and Environmental Technologies Management and Utilization of Solid Wastes from Coal-fired Power Plants in Turkey Potential for co-generation in Turkey. Assessment of Transmission & Distribution loss reduction. Improved management of emissions from non-power sectors. Improvement of petroleum fuels quality. Special Study Lanfill Gas Energy Sector Modelling technical suport to MENR and TEAS to carry out various energy system analyses. to integrate information obtained in other EER tasks to provide Turkiey’s policy makers with an integrated system analysis of the various options for addressing the various energy and environmental concerns

  25. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey A Reference Case was developed to compare alternative scenarios Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios technical efficiency scenario clean coal technology scenario nuclear scenario co-generation scenario renewable scenario CO2 tax scenario constrained gas sub-critical scenario constrained gas super-critical scenario DSM scenario Local Pollution Scenarios petroleum product quality scenario EU standarts power-only scenario EU standarts power+oil scenario

  26. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Main Scenario Assumptions-1 Macreeconomic/Energy Demand Assumptions MAED results from December 2001 from MENR main macroeconomic drivers from State Planning Organization price index for imported coal, crude oil and natural gas projections from WB Structural, Policy and Pricing Assumptions for Reference Case No new domestic reserves of fossil fuels will be discovered No limits on the import of crude oil, natural gas or hard coal The expansion of the electricity system is done on the basis of the least cost over the whole system and over the whole planning period without constraints on gas supply, No major changes in the country’s energy pricing policy, no new major energy conservation or renewable resource programs

  27. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Main Scenario Assumptions-2 • Structural, Policy and Pricing Assumptions for Alternative Scenarios • Clean Coal Scenario: 6 new 250 MW circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) units into the power sector expansion. • Nuclear Power: Introduce 6 new 1000 MW nuclear units into the power sector expansion starting in 2015. • Cogeneration: Initiate more aggressive cogeneration levels in 2005. The goal is to have 20% of total electricity production coming from cogeneration by 2025. • Carbon Tax: Introducing a carbon tax of $4 per ton CO2 in 2004. • Renewables: Initiate more aggressive renewables program in 2005 aiming at having 7% of total electricity production coming from mini-hydro and wind power. • Constrained gas sub-critical: Limit on natural gas. Full utilizatio of the remaining domestic lignite resources at Elbistan (11 units with 500 MW each). In addition, a total of 25,900 MW of imported coal-fired generation (37 units with 700 MW each) are assumed to come an-line. • Constrained gas super-critical: Same as sub-critical scenario, except all coal units are super-critical and have different cost and technical parameters.

  28. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Main Scenario Assumptions-3 • Environmental assumptions • All GHG emission factors for all sectors and technologies from IPCC (IPCC, 1996) • Power sector emission factors for PM, NOx and SO2 from EUAS • Transport sector emission factors from EER Task 5 report • Ratioo of total PM to PM10 and PM2.5 from AP42 • Required modification have been done for alternative scenarios (e.g. sub-critical and super critical power plants will meet EU standarts) • Others • Planning period: 1995-2025 • Real discount rate: 10% • Referrance year for cost discounting: 2000 • All cost data are expressed in constant 2000 U.S. dollars

  29. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Referance Case Energy and Electricity Referance Case Electricity Generation by fuel Referance Case Production-Import-Consumption Balance

  30. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Referance Case CO2 Emissions

  31. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Referance Case CH4 Emissions

  32. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Referance Case N2O Emissions

  33. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Comparing Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

  34. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey GHG Scenarios Results DSM, cogeneration in industry and improved technical efficiency in the power sector are clearly essential ingredients of future climate change policies. The scope of more reliance on cogeneration in industry and improved technical efficiensy in the power sector is intrinsically restricted. With the reduction over 10% in the planning period, the environmental impact for DSM is the greatest in terms of projected emission reduction.

  35. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey GHG Scenarios Results • Greater natural gas utilization is clearly preferable to coal and lignite. The constrained gas super-critical has lower cost and emission burden over the constrained gas sub-critical. • Nuclear power is not attractive for GHG abatement, even though the nert energy import bill drops.

  36. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey GHG Scenarios Results • Renewables have a role to play in GHG reduction policy, but development of renewables will need to be selective. • A carbon tax will bring about some beneficial inter-fuel substitution, inducing consumer to less carbon intensive gas in preference to coal and lignite. However the result of these fuel shifts is an increase in economic cost of energy supply

  37. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Local Pollution Scenarios Scenarios Results • Improving petroleum product quality would cut sulphur emissions by more than 16% over the period 200-2025 at a cost of $252/tonne (discounted). • The introduction of EU standarts and improvement of petroleum product quality would be cost effective options to reduce emissions of sulphur.EU standarts would result in sulphur emissions 36% lower than under the Reference Case over the period 2000-2025. • DSM, cogeneration and improved technical efficiency can all contribute to local pollution control. • The use of natural gas is preferable to coal and lignite, because emissions of PM, SO2, Nox and ash are all higher in the Constrained Gas Sub-critical and Super-critical Scenarios as well as the economic cost of energy supply, although at a lower net energy import bill. • Although a carbon tax is normally regarded as an economic instrument for the control of GHG emissions, it would also yield as a by-product or ancillary benefit, useful reductions in local pollution.

  38. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Conclusion-1 • Under the Reference Case; • Total Primary Energy Supply of 81.4 mtoe in 2000 is expected to be 332 mtoe by the year 2025. • While domestic production doubles between 200 and 2025, overall energy imports are estimated to rise about six fold in the same period, bringing Turkey’s energy import dependency to 83% by 2025 compared with 62% in 2000. • As the demand for gas increases rapidly, virtually all natural gas must be imported. • Total CO2 emissions reaches 871 mtons/year with an average increase of 5,8 by at the end of the planning period. Induatry sector is the main driver of the emissions .

  39. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Conclusion-2 • Total Sos emissions has the lowest value in 2003 but, more than doubles by 2025 and reaches 3,85 mtons/year. Main source of this increase comes from using fuel oil and solid fuil in the industry sector. • When each of GHG emission scenarios is applied individually, it does not have a major impact on CO2/GHG emissions. An effective national policy on climate change will have to rely on the aggressive application of a combination of options • As with the design of policies for GHG mitigation, it is clear that no single policy option will have a major impact on all emissions causing local pollution. An effective policy for the reduction of local pollution will have to rely on the application of a mix of options.

  40. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION....

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