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U.S. CLIVAR Summit August 15-18, 2005 Keystone, CO

U.S. CLIVAR Summit August 15-18, 2005 Keystone, CO. Scientific Progress in Climate Variability Prediction. Observe/Analyze. Hypothesize. Predictability?. Operational Predictions. Decision Support and Climate Services. Conceptualize. Model/Simulate. Experimental Predictions.

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U.S. CLIVAR Summit August 15-18, 2005 Keystone, CO

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  1. U.S. CLIVAR Summit August 15-18, 2005 Keystone, CO

  2. Scientific Progress in Climate Variability Prediction Observe/Analyze Hypothesize Predictability? Operational Predictions Decision Support and Climate Services Conceptualize Model/Simulate Experimental Predictions Intraseasonal Variability Design/improve observing system • Response / Outcome • Droughts • Floods • Climate changes • Heat waves • Cold spells • Storms • Extreme events • Abrupt changes Forecast systems/techniques Feedbacks Monsoons/TBO Assimilation systems ENSO Analysis tools/Diagnostics Tropical Atlantic Variability Develop new products Continuum of Climate Research Activities FORCINGS AO/NAO Assess model fidelity Decadal/Interdecadal Variability Improve model parameterization Southern Annular Mode Process studies Analyze existing observational and model data sets Feedbacks Ocean Thermohaline Circulation Centennial-scale variability Mine historical observations

  3. U.S. CLIVAR’s Goals(from 2000) • identify and understand the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal and longer time scales and evaluate their predictability; • expand our capacity to predict short-term (seasonal to interannual) climate variability and search for ways to predict decadal variability; • better document the record of rapid climate changes in the past, as well as the mechanisms for these events, and evaluate the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future; • evaluate and enhance the reliability of models used to project climate change resulting from human activity, including anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition; and • detect and describe any global climate changes that may occur.

  4. U.S. CLIVAR Recent Timeline September 2004 First began considering a reorganization February 2005 SSC approves reorganization plans April 2005 New panel invitations begin to be issued August 2005 First meeting of the reorganized U.S. CLIVAR

  5. Reorganization Status • Of 36 invitees, only 2 have declined • The community sees value in US CLIVAR • New panel co-chairs have been working very hard to prepare for the Summit • Unsuccessful in completing the U.S. CLIVAR Committee and identifying a co-chair for PSMI • The U.S. research agencies have expressed continued support for U.S. CLIVAR

  6. US CLIVAR ExComm 3 members IAG - Program Managers & Administrators Int’l CLIVAR panels Working Group Working Group Working Group U.S. CLIVAR Scientific Coordination & Advisory Committees US CLIVAR Committee 2 members from each Panel + 3 others Committee Predictability, Predictions & Applications Interface (PPAI) Panels Phenomenology, observations, & synthesis (POS) Process studies & model improvement (PSMI) Working Groups

  7. U.S. CLIVAR Inter-Agency Group (IAG) • Scientific and programmatic support from NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOE • $50++ million in competed research relevant to CLIVAR • NASA, NOAA, and NSF support the U.S. and international CLIVAR offices and committee infrastructure Jay Fein Eric Itsweire Eric Lindstrom Don Anderson Anjuli Bamzai Jim Todd Mike Patterson Jin Huang Mike Johnson Ming Ji Peter Schultz

  8. Critical Links for U.S. CLIVAR • Adding value & leveraging resources • Entrainment of results within operations • U.S. CCSP Contributions • Climate variability & change research • Observing systems • Application/decision support • International CLIVAR • Regional panels • WGCM, WGSIP,… • Other Int’l activities • WCRP • GEWEX • SPARC • CLiC • COPES • U.S. Operational and • Institutional Activities • NCEP, GFDL, IRI • GMAO, GISS • CCSM, PCMDI

  9. Summit Outline • Today: • What is CLIVAR? The context of U.S. CLIVAR internationally and within the U.S. • Research agency perspectives and guidance • The science of CLIVAR - what are some of our scientific challenges? • Panels meet for the first time

  10. Summit Outline (2) • Tomorrow through Thursday • Plenary and panel discussions • Other closely related programs (Tues) • Reports on priorities and strategies • Identifying actions to move forward

  11. Summary • U.S. CLIVAR recognized as a critical part of US climate research efforts • Agencies want US CLIVAR’s help • Panels have the responsibility to lead and coordinate activities, within US and internationally, addressing key scientific challenges and needs • The challenge this week: Respond to the needs of the community and the agencies to provide the planning, coordination, and leadership necessary to make an impact and enable progress to be made

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