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Department of Urban and Public Affairs PADM 600 PADM 605

Department of Urban and Public Affairs PADM 600 PADM 605. NOVEMBER 4, 2013. Dr. James Ramsey President, University of Louisville. I don’t get to teach economics anymore, but I did find my notes from Econ 202. My notes from Econ 202. My Dean. “I am what I am” -Popeye.

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Department of Urban and Public Affairs PADM 600 PADM 605

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  1. Department of Urban and Public Affairs PADM 600 PADM 605 NOVEMBER 4, 2013 Dr. James Ramsey President, University of Louisville

  2. I don’t get to teach economics anymore, but I did find my notes from Econ 202 My notes from Econ 202 My Dean...

  3. “I am what I am” -Popeye Some ask me about my leadership style: Heck, I’m just an economist/econometrician

  4. Still Basic Economic ConceptsImportant as we face University decisions Specialization / division of labor Opportunity costs Cost / benefit analysis Risks / return analysis (risk lovers vs. risk averse) Data / Data / Data So this is how I think...

  5. A. Specification/division of labor

  6. B. Opportunity costs

  7. + – C. AND the “ole” T-Charts approach Pros Benefits Cons Costs Quantitative Qualitative

  8. Is it: 80% vs. 20% OR 20% vs. 80% D. AND trying the assess “risks”

  9. E. Data/Data/Data

  10. With apologies to a Dallas Federal Reserve Economist who I heard 14 years ago The Business Cycle Still Exists! So let’s look at a case study

  11. The “recession!” The Last Decade or so Quarterly Change in GDP (measure of macro economic activity)

  12. We know that nationally times have been unprecedented…11 post WWII recessions • *Lowest level during the current recession. The next two quarters (2009: III and IV) have been positive. • http://books.google.com/books?id=g-L0iLH5u34C&pg=PA408&lpg=PA408&dq=Real+GDP+November+1948&source=bl&ots=1eT_Am6PKI&sig=hkYMPbaa6BWiE92o-tg8Z8DPBI4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=2gEJUrDyE-Hg2AX384DYDQ&ved=0CDcQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=Real%20GDP%20November%201948&f=false

  13. Just when we thought recoverywas taking hold 2011 “Black Swans” Tsunamis/Nuclear MeltdownJapan Civic unrest Tunisia/Egypt/Libya/Yemen/etc. Europe Economic Meltdown Greece/Spain/etc. 2012 “Sandy” Sequestration 2013 And now shutdown So, we are recovering – but we are not back! Yet.

  14. The real problem!

  15. Slow recovery continued – September 2013

  16. National Employment 5.787 million Jobs lost in the recession US jobs December 2007 US jobs September 2013 137,982,000 136,290,000 Jobs gained in the recovery 7.479 million Still 1.69m fewer people working today http://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/CES0000000001http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/us/

  17. Well, Kentucky’s Economy is Dependent on National Economy What does all this have to do with UofL, being Prez., etc

  18. Kentucky’s Economy “A Quick History”

  19. But since 2000Kentuckians working August 2013

  20. But there is more to it Kentucky Manufacturing Employment August 2013 Why Important? WAGES!

  21. So, in Kentucky things are better but we are not back yet from the depths of recession

  22. “I am trying to hang with you but work with me … What’s this have to do with UofL?”

  23. State Funded? OR State assisted? We are a “State” Institution! FY 13 Income Tax/Sales Tax highly correlated with economic activity — i.e. Employment! People working!

  24. KY General Fund Legislative (budget) Session Recessionary years Modest recovery * Forecasted http://www.osbd.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/1ADF4A09-F159-40BE-9DD0-2156ACCD0276/0/1214BOCBudInBrief.pdf

  25. So, While Modest Economic Recovery, State Budget (2008-14) Continues To Be Ugly Because of Expenditure Side of Budget http://www.ksba.org/protected/PrintArticle.aspx?iid=50GAYB&dasi=3UBI

  26. So as a result of the national economic activity and its impact on Kentucky and Kentucky’s budget issues, we are a very different institution…

  27. Budget: UofL Revenues

  28. Fiscal Year 1997-98 Fiscal Year 2013-14

  29. What we have been out doing to move forward “Our Seven Strategies” 1. Continuing re-engineering of processes and expense management 2. Aggressively improving balance sheet management, with an emphasis on converting underperforming assets 3. Increasing clinical income to support education and research 4. Increasing contract research and commercialization income5. Creating private sector partnerships 6. Being creative in expanding the research mission through innovative financing tools like the tax increment financing plan 7. Enhancing fund raising 29

  30. Strategy one – “Pick low hanging fruit.” $114.8M in cost efficiencies 30

  31. Strategy two – Taking “underperforming assets and making them perform.” 31

  32. Strategy three – Increasing value from our research/IP 32

  33. Strategy four – Use private sector to do what we are not good at 33

  34. Strategy five – Generate clinical income to support teaching/academics 34

  35. Strategy six – Being creative and clever,what no other universities do $5.5 M 35

  36. And biggest yet Belknap Research Park 36

  37. An aside Oh, by the way, ManojShanker says that in 2013 UofL contributed $1.7 billion to state budget and is responsible for 20,000 jobs 37

  38. Strategy seven – You – our friends/alums/donors – increase philanthropic support $1B $940 M $750 M $600 M “Hot shot” consultant 2010 Our BOT Today June 30 2014 38

  39. So – we must do more – “The University of the 21st Century” 39

  40. But now, in addition to fiscal challenges, we face • Market challenges • Questions about efficiency/effectiveness of education delivery models • Pricing issues • Integrity issues

  41. So – we must do more – “University of the 21st Century”

  42. Our trajectory Possible Paths of Future • Continue on our trajectory – 2020 Plan • Trajectory slows down – push out date in 2020 Plan • We accept where we are – flatline • The “unthinkable.”

  43. 1. “Clusters”of excellence 2. Reviewing education delivery models that are student centered 3. Look at organization/structural/financial processes 4. Build culture of excellence Second – Next step in campus discussions of “University of 21stCentury”

  44. So again I say that despite my Dean not letting me teach... I really am still an economist

  45. Thank you Questions?

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