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Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010.

Cosmic Rays and Climate Change: a brief summary Arnold Wolfendale, Durham University Tolya Erlykin Ben Laken Terry Sloan. Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010. Effect of CR and other sources of ionization on clouds. ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover. Cosmic Rays and Lightning

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Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010.

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  1. Cosmic Rays andClimate Change:a brief summaryArnold Wolfendale,Durham UniversityTolya ErlykinBen LakenTerry Sloan

  2. Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010. • Effect of CR and other sources of ionization on clouds. • ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover. • Cosmic Rays and Lightning • Lightning and the origin of Life.

  3. Global T rise from 1950 to 2010 due, potentially, to CR ∆CR11 from 1950 – 2010 > - 3% L = ∆T/∆CR CR11 : CR intensity smoothed over 11-year cycle

  4. Two anomalies!

  5. Define L = ∆T/∆CR Conclusion Upper limit for ∆T (1950/2010) due to CR is 0.03oC, compared with actual: 0.7oC, i.e. 4% EVEN THIS COULD BE OF SOLAR ORIGIN

  6. Effect of CR changes on Cloud Cover – and other ionization changes INDIA (RADON) Forbush Decreases Chernobyl Nuclear Bomb tests Electrical Positive CR Bravo bomb 15mt Cloud Cover

  7. ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover Clouds of different types should have different sensitivities to ionization. Stratiform should be most sensitive. They are very extended. Only edge effects are effective in changing cloud cover. Very approximately ∆CC/CC= (1/7) ∆CCN/CCN Many km (CCN = ‘charged condensation nuclei’)

  8. ‘Cloud’ and Cloud Cover Kulmala et al. (2010) show that ∆CCN/CCN < 1%, for max CR change. Conclusion CR have a negligible effect on Cloud Cover.

  9. Lightning

  10. Adam and God

  11. SNR Model: A.D. Erlykin and AWW (2001)

  12. Miller (1953) – and Miller & Urey water, methane, ammonia, etc. (the ‘pre-biotic soup’) Amino-acids RNA Monomers

  13. On average, every million years, ICR(>1016eV) up by ~ 105 for ~ 30,000 years. Probably enough to cause a sufficiently large frequency of lightning discharges to cause production of RNA, monomers, etc. in the window : 4.5 – 3.5 By BP.

  14. after Parman

  15. More recently – and more probably – the generation of NOX by lightning will have had relevance to evolution. NOX is welcome to plants and bad for humans.

  16. Conclusions • CR have a very small effect on clouds. • CR may be connected with the origin of life, and its subsequent evolution.

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