Presentation overview

1. Bridging Long-term Scenario and strategy analysis: Organisation and Methods – BLOSSOMPresentation to NRC-FLIS Annual MeetingLjubljana 16-17 February 2012Owen White, CEP Ltd (UK)Tony Zamparutti, Milieu Ltd (BE)

2. Presentation overview • Part 1: BLOSSOM to date • What is BLOSSOM? • Objectives • Outcomes to date • Links to FLIS • Part 2: BLOSSOM the future • Developing new case studies: • A guidance note for countries

3. Part 1: BLOSSOM to date

4. What is BLOSSOM? • Analysis of institutional arrangements for and barriers / success factors to embedding a long-term perspective in (environmental) policy making • 3 phases: • 1. Literature review and workshop (2008) • 2. Case study based assessment of institutional arrangements in 8 EEA member and corresponding countries, interviews and research (2009) • 3. Update and an additional 4 country case studies (2010) • Country case studies and a cross-cutting report

5. BLOSSOM objectives • To build an understanding of countries’ practical experience and institutional arrangements for embedding a long-term perspective in government (in particular focussing on environmental planning/policy) • Cross-country comparison, to... • Identify a ’toolbox’ of approaches to institutionalising long-term futures thinking • Identify which countries have introduced respective approaches and tools: finding pioneers and commonplace tools • Look for commonalities and differences; identifying factors for and barriers to success

6. Futures analysis and policy: overview Futures analysis has had several functions in terms of policy: • Exploratory identification of long-term issues: ‘blue skies’ analysis • Agenda setting: identifying issues and uncertainties • Supporting policy development: e.g. assessment of policies

7. Futures analysis and policy Common barriers: • Policy making: short term • Compartments in government (‘silos’) • Institutions are slow to change • Policy makers want ‘certainty’ and definitive answers for public debate • Different time scales for policy and research...

8. BLOSSOM case studies

9. Country example: Finland • Parliamentary Committee for the Future • recipient of the Government Foresight Network’s report from Government, which sets the Government’s agenda • Government Ministers often gain experience of futures thinking from CftF • Consultation and communication with regional bodies on Government Foresight Report provides follow-up process • Participative administrative culture • Policy makers are comfortable with making decisions based on futures thinking because of departmental medium-term strategic plans

10. Country example: Finland

11. Country example: Poland • Legacy of central planning left a distrust of, and an aversion to, long-term studies and plans • No permanent futures programme, but in 2009 the Prime Minister’s Office launched a major future-oriented initiative to prepare a government strategy for national development challenges to 2030 • A major technology foresight programme, recently completed, looked at issues to 2020 • results have influenced proposals for research funding priorities; • spawned regional and sectoral foresight work • So far, futures work has been carried out through ad-hoc futures studies rather than permanent offices • recent government reforms are likely to change this

12. Country example: Poland

13. The Austrian Federal government uses future studies on a regular basis as analytical background for the preparation and the revision of environmental policies. As a result, forward-looking thinking has become a regular part of the policy process.... Austria

14. Though futures work in the Netherlands is not institutionalised in a central body, the network of agencies and research bodies that are concerned with futures studies are firmly embedded in the regular policy process and help improve the policy decisions.... Netherlands

15. Foresight programmes formally designed for environmental policy are basically absent in Portugal, while studies are undertaken quite punctually, on demand.... Portugal

16. A few key findings…

17. Cross-country analysis:Success factors and barriers

18. Links to FLIS BLOSSOM: Institutional capacity, and futures approaches

19. Part 2: BLOSSOM the future

20. What does the future hold? • Guidance note and case study templates: • Developing new country case studies • Ensuring existing studies are up-to-date • Further development of BLOSSOM within FLIS: a resource for countries The Blossom project and methodology provides a means of better understanding current, national level, institutional arrangements for the development and use of forward-looking information in environmental policy. This can add value by enabling cross-national learning and exchange, as well as helping to understand the policy making ‘landscape’

21. BLOSSOM guidance note • Proposed contents: • Introduction and rationale • Notes on undertaking a new case study • Notes on updating an existing case study • Templates with notes: • Research templates • Case study report template • Case study summary template

22. BLOSSOM guidance note: case study process

23. Thank you!