1 / 20

Presentation Overview

Electricity Supply & Reliability 2000 to 2003 Daniel Nix Energy Information and Analysis Division California Energy Commission October 17, 2000. Situation Today and Forecast 2001-2003 Problems: Reliability and Prices Contributing Factors Actions Underway Lessons for Restructuring.

nasnan
Download Presentation

Presentation Overview

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Electricity Supply & Reliability 2000 to 2003Daniel NixEnergy Information and Analysis DivisionCalifornia Energy CommissionOctober 17, 2000

  2. Situation Today and Forecast 2001-2003 Problems: Reliability and Prices Contributing Factors Actions Underway Lessons for Restructuring Presentation Overview

  3. CAL ISO Load/Resource Balance with 7% Operating Reserve at Coincident Peak 1 in 40 Year Peak Demand 1 in 5 Year Peak Demand 1 in 2 Year Peak Demand Existing generation excludes 2,500 MW for outages

  4. Good news The West had no systemwide black-outs Bad news CA ISO had 32 Stage I alerts (<7% reserves) CA ISO had 17 Stage II alerts (<5% reserves) Shed firm load in San Francisco on June 14 High levels of system disturbance in West Reliability - Summer of 2000

  5. Electricity costs for CA ISO customers 4/98 to 3/99 $ 6.7 billion 4/99 to 3/00 $ 8.1 billion 4/00 to 8/00 $12.1 billion This August, electricity cost $4.1 billion, 4 1/2 times what it cost the previous August. Wholesale Dollars at Stake

  6. Monthly Average PX Market Clearing Price 180 160 140 Actual 1999 120 Actual 2000 100 Forecasted $/MWh 80 2001 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

  7. Energy Price vs. Demand August 1--September 19, 2000 Price is represented by PX unconstrained MCP 600 Price cap effective Aug. 1--6 500 400 $/MWh 300 Price cap effective after Aug. 6 200 100 0 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 ISO Load in MW

  8. A Country in Transition Percentage changes in population from April 1, 1990 through July 1, 1999 Fastest-growing states Slowest-growing/shrinking states MAINE +2.0% WASH. +18.3% N.D. -0.8% MASS. ORE. W. VA. +2.6% +16.7% +0.7% N.Y. IDAHO +1.1% +24.3% R.I. -1.3% PA IOWA +0.9% NEV. +3.3% CONN. +50.6% UTAH -0.2% COLO. +23.6% +23.1% ARIZ. +30.4% GEORGIA TEXAS +20.2% +18.0% FLORIDA +16.8%

  9. ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation

  10. Daily Peak Loads California ISO Control Area January 1999 - July 2000 50,000 July 12, 1999 45,574 MW June 14, 2000 45,000 43,447 MW 40,000 MW 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 01/01/1999 02/01/1999 03/01/1999 04/01/1999 05/01/1999 06/01/1999 07/01/1999 08/01/1999 09/01/1999 10/01/1999 11/01/1999 12/01/1999 01/01/2000 02/01/2000 03/01/2000 04/01/2000 05/01/2000 06/01/2000 07/01/2000

  11. Statewide Monthly Average Cost of Natural Gas for Electric Generation in California 2000 - 2002 6.50 5.50 2000 4.50 2001 3.50 2000 $/MMBtu 2002 2.50 1.50 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

  12. Are New Plants Economic? - New combined cycle need to receive about $80/kW - $100/kW/ year to cover total annual revenue requirements. - New generators would have lost money in 1998. - In 1999, a new efficient combined cycle might have covered its cost in Northern California’s energy market. It would have lost money in Southern California. - By September 1, 2000, a new generator would have already recovered two to three times its total annual revenue requirements.

  13. In California 2001 - 2,000+ MW 2002 - 1,700 MW 2003 - 6,530 MW CA is 35% of WSCC’s load In the rest of the West 2001 - 4,500 MW 2002 - 2,400 MW 2003 - 6,900 MW Generation being built(estimated on-line dates, nameplate capacity)

  14. Statewide Peak Demand (MW) by Sector and End-Use

  15. What Actions Are Needed? • Enable electricity users to respond • To prices if they choose to do so • To sell their load for compensation • Encourage voluntary load reduction • Educate about the value of energy efficiency • Search for existing, but underused supplies • Work towards a regional solution

  16. Energy Commission’sResponse to Supply Adequacy • Commission is: • processing record number of siting cases • proposing streamlined siting process laws and regulations • analyzing situation and informing market participants about options • making recommendations to CPUC and ISO • monitoring situation and identifying contingency plans • working towards a regional solution • encouraging mid-term contributions of energy efficiency, renewables and R & D

  17. Reduce Demand for Electricity During Peak Periods Interruptible-Curtailable Program Public Utilities Commission reconsidering opt-out provision; considering replacement program Efficiency Program The Energy Commission and the Public Utilities Commission have been funded to sponsor at least 250 MW of new savings for next summer. Demand Bidding/Load Participation The ISO is revamping programs for Summer 2001.

More Related