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Forecasting The Population At Risk of Generating Public Law Work. PETER SHIER. 10 th June 2011. A workstream of the ‘Access to Justice Forecasting Development Project’. TRENDS IN PUBLIC LAW CHILDREN ACT PROCEEDINGS. Climbie Trial Concludes Jan 2001. Death of Peter Connolly Aug 2007.

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Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Forecasting The Population At Risk of Generating Public Law Work

PETER SHIER

10th June 2011

A workstream of the ‘Access to Justice Forecasting Development Project’


Trends in public law children act proceedings

TRENDS IN PUBLIC LAW CHILDREN ACT PROCEEDINGS

Climbie Trial

Concludes

Jan 2001

Death of Peter Connolly Aug 2007

Death of Victoria Climbie Feb 2000

Total Public Law Children Act Cases

New Child Protection Plan Registrations

Numbers of Social Workers


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

MODEL 3

Public Law

Proceedings

MODEL 1

Domestic

Violence

MODEL 5

Financial Provision inc Ancillary Relief

MODEL 2

Private Law - Children

MODEL 4

DIVORCE PROJECTIONS

MODEL 3 : Public Law Proceedings

DIVORCE

PRIVATE LAW

PUBLIC LAW

3


What drives public law work we have drawn upon a wide range of expertise

WHAT DRIVES PUBLIC LAW WORK ?We Have Drawn Upon A Wide Range of Expertise

  • CAFCASS

  • Relate

  • Resolution

  • British Association of Social Workers

  • Family Law Bar Association

  • Magistrates Association

  • NSPCC

  • Justices Clerk Society

  • Colleagues across MoJ, HMCS and also DFE, DWP & ONS.

4


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Advisory group workshops revealed a complex system for Public Law work with many inter-relating drivers

DEMOGRAPHIC

EXTERNAL

  • Age of Children under 4

  • Numbers of children

  • Population Growth

  • External agencies better at sharing information

  • Public awareness increased

  • Number of health visitors prevents cases worsening

  • Shock events (Death of Peter Connolly , Victoria Climbe)

FINANCIAL ECONOMIC

POTENTIAL

DEMAND

DEMAND

COURTS &

LEGAL AID

Take Up

  • Income Deprivation

  • Child Poverty

  • Level of unemployment

  • Schools , GPs, Police more aware of risk factors

  • Capacity constraints , Number of Social Workers

  • Local Authority perception of risks

  • Increasing complexity / nastiness of cases

  • Care Reforms, more pre-court preparation & Use of alternatives eg EPOs

  • Court Fees (see Plowden Report)

  • Benefit Reforms / Changes

  • Levels of Central Government Funding

BEHAVIOURAL ATTITUDINAL

  • Prevalence of parental mental health

  • Long term illness

  • Drug & alcohol abuse

  • Inter-generational effects

  • Prevalence of hard to reach families

  • Family stresses, recent divorce, partnership dissolution, loss of employment

  • At risk of Domestic Violence

5


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Advisory group workshops revealed a complex system with many inter-relating drivers …..and then if we add-in the feedback loops!

DEMOGRAPHIC

EXTERNAL

  • Age of Children under 4

  • Numbers of children

  • Population Growth

  • External agencies better at sharing information

  • Public awareness increased

  • Number of health visitors prevents cases worsening

  • Shock events (Death of Peter Connolly , Victoria Climbe)

+

FINANCIAL ECONOMIC

POTENTIAL

DEMAND

DEMAND

COURTS &

LEGAL AID

Take Up

  • Income Deprivation

  • Child Poverty

  • Level of unemployment

  • Schools , GPs, Police more aware of risk factors

  • Capacity constraints , Number of Social Workers

  • Local Authority perception of risks

  • Increasing complexity / nastiness of cases

  • Care Reforms, more pre-court preparation & Use of alternatives eg EPOs

  • Court Fees (see Plowden Report)

  • Benefit Reforms / Changes

  • Levels of Central Government Funding

+

BEHAVIOURAL ATTITUDINAL

  • Prevalence of parental mental health

  • Long term illness

  • Drug & alcohol abuse

  • Inter-generational effects

  • Prevalence of hard to reach families

  • Family stresses, recent divorce, partnership dissolution, loss of employment

  • At risk of Domestic Violence

+

6


A simpler conceptual model was developed to form the basis of our investigations

A simpler conceptual model was developed to form the basis of our investigations.

CHILD POPULATION

Number of Social Workers

NEW CPP

REGISTRATIONS

INITIAL

ASSESSMENTS

DEMAND

COURTS &

LEGAL AID

Take Up

INTERVENTION SUCCESSFUL

REFERRED by GPs, School, Police, Other Protection Agencies.

At Risk of

Domestic Violence

  • Other Household Characteristics

  • Drug / Alcohol Abuse

  • Parental Mental Health

  • Income Deprivation including impact on mental health, long term illness, benefits etc, Child Poverty

AT RISK POPULATION

7


Working assumption the size of the at risk population drives the number of initial assessments

Working Assumption : The size of the “At Risk population drives the number of initial assessments

CHILD POPULATION

Number of Social Workers

NEW CPP

REGISTRATIONS

INITIAL

ASSESSMENTS

DEMAND

COURTS &

LEGAL AID

Take Up

INTERVENTION SUCCESSFUL

REFERRED by GPs, School, Police, Other Protection Agencies.

At Risk of

Domestic Violence

  • Other Household Characteristics

  • Drug / Alcohol Abuse

  • Parental Mental Health

  • Income Deprivation including impact on mental health, long term illness, benefits etc, Child Poverty

AT RISK POPULATION

8


How do we identify and measure the at risk population

Problem: We have very little descriptive data about previous ‘customers’

Solution: Use a tool called MOSAIC

How Do We Identify and Measure the “At Risk population?

We do have address details

What is MOSAIC?

It uses many different data sources to describe the neighbourhood of each postcode.

For example my area is described as…

Demographics and Family Structure

Home Sharers

Married/cohabiting 5-9 yrs or less than 1 yr

Age 26-35

Economic

No savings

Net household wealth £10,000-£25,000

Individual income >£1,000 or <£2,500

Singles and sharers occupying converted Victorian houses

MOSAIC

Descriptive information about the customer base

Postcodes of people granted legal aid

MOSAIC descriptions of neighbourhoods

+

=


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

MOSAIC TYPE

(15 CLUSTERS)


Correlation between public law take up rates mosaic indices

Correlation Between Public Law Take – Up Rates & Mosaic Indices

…and about 900

Other Mosaic Indices

R2


Results snapshot

Results - Snapshot


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Public Law Children

Mosaic Descriptions of Previous Households Involved In Public Law Proceedings Used For Forecasting The “At Risk” Population

Neurotic

Drugs a big problem in the area

Depression

Bi-polar disorder

Age 26-30

Small properties

Gross income less than £10,000

Schizophrenia

Single

Dependant children

Long term sick/disabled

Cohabiting

Council/Housing Association

Unemployed

Lone parents

Incapacity Benefit

JSA Claimants

Children aged 0-4

Domestic Violence

Homesharers

Black African or Black Caribbean

Net wealth less than £10,000

Filter used

Indicators used


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Parent Profiles

Concerns About Mental Health

48% of cases in Hunt et al (1999)

43% of cases in Brophy (2003)

Substance Abuse

23% of cases included allegations of drug abuse (Brophy 2003)

20% of cases included drug & alcohol abuse (hunt et al 1999)

Domestic Violence

45% of cases (Brophy 2003) upto 65% in White British Group.

51% of cases (Hunt et al)

Step Families

58% of children were not full siblings of an “index child” ((Hunt et al 1999)

Income Support

84% of parents dependant on income support (Hunt et al 1999)

Parents Involved In Crime

61% of cases (Hunt et al 1999)

20% of Cases (Brophy et al 2003)

Independent ResearchDCA Research Series 5/06 May 2006Research Review : Child Care Proceedings Under the Children Act 1989


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

How Can We Use The Suggested Characteristics of Households That Generate Public Law Work to Forecast an “At Risk” Population ?

Public Law Proceedings

Household

Characteristics

Suggested

By Mosaic Indices

FAMILY

RESOURCES

SURVEY


Estimating an index for the number of households at risk of public law proceedings

Estimating An Index For The Number of Households “At Risk” of Public Law Proceedings

Individual R-Squared Values Reflect The correlation between specific Mosaic Variables & The Take-Up for Public Law work(certificates issued per 1000 of population)


Estimating an index for the number of households at risk of public law proceedings1

Estimating An Index For The Number of Households “At Risk” of Public Law Proceedings


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

0

Trends within population with dependant children

Unemployed

Cohabiting

Lone Parents

Children aged 0-4

We estimate that the “At Risk population has been increasing since 2001. Cohabitation or An Increase in Step Families Appears To Be A Key Driver.


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

CPP Registrations as a % of at risk population

New Registrations for Child Protection Plans (CPPs) as a percentage of the estimated population “at risk” have been very stable.

At Risk Population

New CPP Registrations

Climbie Trial

Concludes 12th January 2001

Death of Victoria Climbie 25th February 2000

Baby-P trial concludes

November 2008

Report on Victoria Climbie’s Death Published


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Looking At The Data In Different WaysPopulation Effects:In 2008 there were more women under 30 years of age, with children, in households with higher risk indicators for public law proceedings, compared to 2004


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Looking At The Data In Different WaysPopulation Effects:In 2008 there were more women under 30 years of age, with children, in households with higher risk indicators for public law proceedings, compared to 2004


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Looking At The Data In Different WaysPopulation Effects:In 2008 there were more women under 30 years of age, with children, in households with higher risk indicators for public law proceedings, compared to 2004

  • Emergency Department Admissions : Parental Violence Towards ChildrenAged Under 10: [1]

  • 8% Increase in 2008-9

  • 20% Increase in 2009-10

[1] Violence in England & Wales in 2010 An Accident & Emergency Perspective


Inward migration appears to have played a key role

Inward migration appears to have played a key role

Younger people more likely to have pre-school aged children

Less Likely To Access Public Services eg

22% of entitled non recipients of income support are under 25 compared to 16% of all recipients

Speculated that whilst the potential size of the “at risk” population may have increased, families with younger children may be less visible:

Substantial number of immigrants


How can we forecast the at risk population

CPP Registrations as a % of at risk population

How Can We Forecast The “At Risk” Population ?

At Risk Population

New CPP Registrations

?

Climbie Trial

Concludes 12th January 2001

Death of Victoria Climbie 25th February 2000

Baby-P trial concludes

November 2008

Report on Victoria Climbie’s Death Published


Cohort effects risk tracked through generations

Cohort Effects : Risk Tracked Through Generations

FRS 2000

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 25

Born 1975


Cohort effects risk tracked through generations1

Cohort Effects : Risk Tracked Through Generations

FRS 2000

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 25

Born 1975

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 20

Born 1980


Cohort effects risk tracked through generations2

Cohort Effects : Risk Tracked Through Generations

FRS 2000

FRS 2001

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 26

Born 1975

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 21

Born 1980


Cohort effects risk tracked through generations3

Cohort Effects : Risk Tracked Through Generations

FRS 2000

FRS 2001

FRS 2002

FRS 2003

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

40

39

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

Etc…..

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 28

Born 1975

Estimated “At Risk” Population Aged 23

Born 1980


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

Tracking the size of the at risk population in all generations allows us to predict future generational patterns and therefore forecast the at risk population


Forecasting the population at risk of generating public law work

QUESTIONS ?


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