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Tonight’s Agenda

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Tonight’s Agenda

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Tonight’s Agenda • Announcements • Hurricane Sandy Devastates Northeast • Election Update • October Jobs Report • U.S. Earnings • Baidu and China Outlook • More Apple Trouble

  3. Stock markets closed on Mon., Tues. as storm hobbles New York

  4. Effects of Hurricane Sandy • Forced all U.S. Stock exchanges to close for first time in over 20 years due to natural disaster. • Prompted discussion of having a back-up system of some kind/ moving the finance district to area like Arizona. • Millions still without power/ thousands of homes destroyed. • Estimated costs as high as $60 Billion!

  5. Flat for Week S&P Recap:

  6. Election Update: 2 days out 270 Needed to Win!

  7. Swing States

  8. Romney-Obama Tie?

  9. Jobs Situation- October

  10. Fri23 Nov. 2 | 8:30 AMET Santelli Argues over jobs numbers

  11. Shell Earnings • Reported earnings on Thursday • Expected earnings: $6.31 Billion, $1.93 per share • Q3 Profit: $6.1 Billion (down 15%) • Q3 Revenue: $115.43 Billion (down 8.4%) • 2.98 million barrels of oil and equivalents per day, down from 3.01 a year ago

  12. Chevron Earnings • Reported earnings on Friday • Production fell • Sold oil and gas at lower prices • August refinery fire hurt refining business • Gulf of Mexico operations hurt from Hurricane Isaac

  13. Chevron Stock Performance (11/2/12) • Stock price falls on weak earnings • Closed at 108.37 3.09(2.77%) • 1 year % change: 3.66%

  14. Exxon Mobile Earnings • Beat estimates of $1.95 EPS with earnings of $2.09, but down from 3Q 2011 • Revenue beat forecasts, but down 8% from 3Q 2011 • Stock closed on Thursday at $91.60 up $.43 • Stock declined on Friday compared to Oil and Gas Industry

  15. Exxon Mobile • Production: 3.96 million barrels day (down 7.5%) • Movement of drilling equipment to areas of higher concentrations of oil, since it is more profitable • Production should begin to increase

  16. Oil and Gas Industry • Sluggish global economy has cut demand. • Revenue has decreased due to lower oil and natural gas prices, and lower production.

  17. Key Credit Card Earnings

  18. Visa Tops Forecast, Authorizes $1.5 Billion Buyback • Beat EPS estimate of $1.50 by $.04 or 2.67% • Posted revenues of $2.73B against the $2.52B estimate • Total processed transactions up • 4.1 B cards, firmly ahead of MasterCard 3.34%

  19. MasterCard profit beats as world charges more • Beat EPS expectations of $5.92 by $.25 or 4.22% • Posted revenue of $1.92B which missed expectations of $1.94B • Increase in total Processed transactions • Up to 1.9B cards 1.85%

  20. Consumer Spending • The Confidence Board index of confidence reached 72.2, the highest since February 2008. Up from 40.9 a year ago. • Goal of 90 that is consistent with a healthy economy • “We see extraordinary opportunity for growth in the payments industry.“ –MasterCard Management

  21. U.S. Auto “Big 3” Earning Results • October sales – best in 5 years • Expects high sales level to continue into 2013 • Dodge Ram and Caravan sales up big Chrysler (Fiat)

  22. GM beats by wide margin, shares jump • Surprisingly strong profit • Expecting full year operating loss of $1.5 t0 $1.8 billion in Europe • Targeting return to breakeven levels mid-decade • Cutting jobs in Europe • Reducing fixed costs – target of $500 million • Good not great outlook

  23. Wed 31 Oct 12 | 07:51 AM ET GM Q3 Earnings Big Beat

  24. Ford Profit beats Wall St. Forecast • Profit trounced expectations • +33% surprise in EPS • Record high profit margins in North America • Hurt in Europe • Announced three plant closures • First profit in Asia Pacific/Africa since second quarter 2011 • Margins will decrease, but optimism remains

  25. Baidu: The "Google" of China

  26. The company had revenue of 994.6 million for the quarter, compare to the consensus estimate of 998.37 million. • Baidu was downgrade by analysts at Citigroup from a buy rating to sell rating. • Credit Suisse set Baidu price target at 82. Now traded at 106

  27. 5 YR. 156%

  28. Diversity: Google vs. Baidu • Google acquired and merged more than a hundred companies, in which includes map analysis, advertising, mobile software, video, etc. • Baidu mainly focus on search engine, which includes text search, domain search, music search, people search, etc. • If Google can be unblocked?

  29. Forecast • 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Nov. 9, 2012 • Unveil the policies and decision-making for the next 4 years

  30. HSBC PMI • China’s manufacturing industry enjoyed an improvement in trading conditions during October, with the latest HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ coming in at 49.5 – up from 47.9 the previous month. • The upward swing was in part thanks to a rise in new orders – the first increase for a year.   • Although the rate of contraction slowed in October, the figure of 49.5 still represents the 12thmonth in a row in which the industry has shrunk.

  31. Apple Down big post Ipad Mini Release

  32. Closed below 200 day Moving Average on Friday

  33. Reminders! Only 2 Meetings Left!! Guest Speaker Next Week Vote on Prizes for Investment. competetion

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