Psychology 242, Dr. McKirnan

Psychology 242, Dr. McKirnan 6 / 25 / 14 Introduction to research in psychology. • Electronic Devices: • I do not allow any form of electronic device in lecture or discussion group (they can be very distracting to people around you). i>Clicker: • Register your i>clicker on Blackboard and the i>clicker web site right away! • Make sure your frequency is set to ‘AA’. • You are responsible for accurately clicking each class; you will not receive credit if you forgot your clicker or used it incorrectly. • You must answer 50% of quiz items correct to get credit. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Introductory lectures • What is science? • Beliefs v. facts • Science, anti-science, pseudoscience. • Where does our knowledge of the world come from? Cranach, Tree of Knowledge [of Good and Evil] (1472)

Core components of science What is science? • Values: • Critical thought + Empiricism • Understand the Natural World • Theory: How or Why? • Evidence: How do you know? Content • Empirical findings: Facts • Ways of classifying nature • Well supported theories • Methods • Objective approaches • Basic experimental design • Specific research procedures • Science is public

What is critical thinking? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism • Active • Seek (new & diverse) information rather than passively accept a conclusion or assertion • Skeptical; • Suspend belief until there is evidence • Make judgments about whether something… • Is plausible & rational • Is supported by evidence • Be clear on the limitations of your and others’ knowledge • Creative • Develop and consider alternative explanations or interpretations • Imagine different ways to evaluate or test a claim (Not simply doubting everything)

Laws, theory, hypotheses, facts • Some key elements of science Laws Theories Hypotheses Facts Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Laws • Very reliably occurs in a particular situation. • May have exceptions, • Modified or rejected via new evidence or perspectives. The “laws of learning”: many experiments show that delivering rewards on a certain schedule leads to behavior change. Laws may be “soft”: Many exceptions & influences from other variables. The Law of gravity: Universal force linking bodies, influenced by the mass of the bodies and their distance from each other, mediated by hypothetical particles called ‘gravitons’. Laws may be ‘hard’; Few exceptions & extraneous variables.

Theory • Coherent explanations of something in nature; • Organize different things we know or observe about the world • Creative: they rely on imagination and vision • Supported / developed from multiple empirical studies • Do not depend upon one study or even one type of study • Have stood up over time, tested by many different people using different methods. • Cannot be dependent upon just one research method, or just one research team • A theory is Nota general idea, hunch, or logical thought. • Theories are:

Theory • Coherent explanations of something in nature; • Creative: they rely on imagination and vision • Supported / developed from multiple empirical studies • Public: many different people contribute to, debate, and evaluate the theory • Never ‘true’; they are accepted as the best explanation until a better theory displaces it. • Explains things the original theory could not explain, or • Explains things more simply and elegantly • Theories are:

Hypothesis • NOT just a guess or hunch. • Should be a well thought out prediction. • Based on: • Prior experience & scientific background knowledge, • Preliminary observations & other research findings, • Logic, imagination, & creativity. • Can be framed in: • Observational terms. • I hypothesize that students I observe attending lectures will do better • Experimental terms. • I hypothesize that students I induce to attend lectures will do better that students I do not…

Facts • Statements known to be true through direct public observation (can be confirmed by other people). • There are 5 trees in my front yard. • The Winter of 2013 – 2014 was one of the longest on record • Very important in everyday life: • It is / is not a fact that I can pay my rent this month. • Scientific facts – or “findings” – are important in: • Describing the world • (the earth is 3.5 billion years old) • In scientific observations • (rats made obese show more cardio-vascular problems than do rats raised to be non-obese) • Facts do not explain the world, they do not show us how things ‘work’ or are related.

Laws, theory, hypotheses, facts Laws • Science is a process where these principles are in constant interplay. • It is not linear but cyclical. Theories Hypotheses Facts Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Laws, theory, hypotheses, facts Laws Scientific laws develop from well supported theories, and lead to new explanations or theories. Theories Theorieshelp us develop testable hypotheses, that support, modify or refute the theory. Hypotheses Hypotheses are tested by the systematic collection of facts:our hypothesis tells us where to look. Facts Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Core components of science We will spend most of the course on this. Operational definitions Internal & External validity Measurement or correlational designs True experiments Ethics Basic statistics Complex designs….

Introduction to science, 1 • What is science? • Beliefs v. facts • Science, anti-science, magical thought. • Where does our knowledge of the world come from?  Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

How do we know things? • We should intervene in Syria before it is too late. • Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict. • Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. • The earth is about 3.5 billion years old. How do we distinguish… Belief or Opinion Empirical Statement or Fact from Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

How do we know things? • We should intervene in Syria before it is too late. • Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict. • Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. • The earth is about 3.5 billion years old. What research could you do on this statement? Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Let’s answer some belief & fact questions… using your iClickers All ideas have some merit and should be considered equally. A = True B = I’m not sure C = False • Most any idea is worthy of study. • Scientific acceptance of ideas is notegalitarian; •  Ideas that are coherent and have empirical support are better. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Knowledge attitudes, 2 If a lot of people believe something there is probably something to that. A = True B = I’m not sure C = False • Science is not democratic; •  the data “win”, not the majority of believers • Many foolish or dangerous ideas were accepted by many people, including scientists, until countered by empirical evidence. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Knowledge attitudes, 3 I can just sense when something is true or false. A = True B = I’m not sure C = False • Intuition is an important source of hypotheses or theories • Intuition describes your emotions, not necessarily the real world. • Emotionality & subjectivity are not scientific until they are empirically tested. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Knowledge attitudes, 4 Everyone is biased, even scientists, so why shouldn’t I just believe what makes sense to me? A = True B = I’m not sure C = False • Everyone does have biases • Science is designed to not be person based – • Science is about methods, not people and their bias’ • Scientific method specifically works to lessen personal bias. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Science: core values • Some ideas are “better” than others. • Is it logically coherent? • Is it supported by evidence? • Does it make sense with what is already known? Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Core values • Some ideas are “better” than others. • Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. • Objective methods are specifically designed to overcome our natural biases. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Core values • Some ideas are “better” than others. • Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. • Evidence from the natural world trumps personal biases or beliefs. • Evidence from the “real world” has the final say. • Not OK to “Cherry pick” confirmatory or self-serving evidence. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Core values • Some ideas are “better” than others. • Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. • Evidence from the natural world trumps personal biases or beliefs. • Logic or rational thought are (generally) more important than intuition or emotions. • Is it logically coherent? • Is it supported by evidence? • Does it make sense with what is already known? Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

The values of science & empiricism Critical thought • How or why does it work? Theories must: • Be coherent: internally consistent & clearly explain the phenomenon • Articulate with what is already known • How do you know? • What is the evidence for or against a hypothesis or theory? • Focus on the natural world. • Science is anchored on evidence and objective methods, not individual people or ideologies. • Science is an open system: • Our theories & knowledge base must accommodate new / different findings SUMMARY

Introduction to science, 2 • What is science? • Beliefs v. facts • Science, anti-science, magical thought. • Where does our knowledge of the world come from?  Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Core values Let’s talk about your beliefs. How much to you believe in… Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

How much to you believe in… • ESP or Extrasensory Perception A = I believe in this B = I am not sure C = I do not believe in this Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Beliefs, 2… • That houses can be haunted A = I believe in this B = I am not sure C = I do not believe in this Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Beliefs, 3… • Have you ever been protected by an angel? A = Yes B = I am not sure C = No Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Are we rational? Is American society “rational”? Are our beliefs generally scientific? • Irrational beliefs have actually increased in the U.S. in the 21st Century Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Direct paranormal experiences among Americans • 55% of Americans : "I was protected from harm by a guardian angel.“ Paranormal Experiences in the United States Percent that report the following experiences: Used acupuncture or other forms of alternative medicine 28% Consulted a horoscope 28% Consulted a medium, fortune teller or psychic 13% Had a dream that later came true 43% Witnessed a UFO 17% Baylor University nationally representative survey of 1,721 respondents Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Beliefs… About 50% of Americans believe in ESP Despite consistent failures to demonstrate it scientifically. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Beliefs, 2… 37% of Americans believe in haunted houses 54% believeor not sure % of people believe / not sure about haunted houses % of people who believe climate change is due to human activity. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Politics and irrational belief • Political ideology is strongly associated with beliefs • Liberals & moderates are more likely to believe in haunted houses & ghosts than are conservatives. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Politics and irrational belief • Political ideology is strongly associated with beliefs • Conservatives are much less likely to accept a scientific explanation of climate change. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Scientific views on evolution are slowly increasing • Few Americans endorse a scientific view of the origins of species • Biblical creation views are most common. • Direct scientific perspective uncommon Most Americans who accept evolution endorse “Intelligent Design” rather than natural selection. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Ideology and acceptance of science • Acceptance of evolution varies substantially by • religion • and political affiliation. http://www.pewforum.org/2013/12/30/publics-views-on-human-evolution/

Science and cultural ideology • Liberals also have “hallmark” unscientific beliefs; • A single fraudulent study in the 1990s led to the belief that the MMR vaccine causes autism. • The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. • Even now only 48% of parents reject the vaccine  autism link. • Vaccine beliefs are spearheaded by liberal bloggers, celebrities, or alternative medicine groups. Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011 • Click for a review of the MMR vaccine - autism controversy

Science and cultural ideology • Liberals also have “hallmark” unscientific beliefs; • A single fraudulent study in the 1990s led to the belief that the MMR vaccine causes autism. • The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. • Still, even now only 48% of parents reject the vaccine  autism link. • Vaccine beliefs are spearheaded by liberal bloggers, celebrities, or alternative medicine groups. • Vaccination rates have decreased due to the vaccine “controversy”. • Mortality due to mumps, measles or rubella have increased (U.S. & U.K.) 98% vaccination rate 86% vaccination rate Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011 • Click for a review of the MMR vaccine - autism controversy

John Steward / Samantha Bee: An outbreak of liberal idiocy • A recent study reported in Mother Jones found four different attempts to change anti-vaccine beliefs all failed • Emotion-based attempts did nothing • Fact-based attempts actually backfired, and increased anti-vaccine beliefs. • Highly ideologically–based beliefs can be almost completely resistant to contrary scientific evidence http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/vaccine-denial-psychology-backfire-effect

Why do we reject scientific explanations? • When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. • Scientific explanations often abstract & difficult; intuition is easier and “feels better” • Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion • Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; • Spurious correlations • High salience of a single event • Cognitive availability & confirmatory bias • We recall information • that confirms our • beliefs or feelings • “correlations” • salient events Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Belief in ESP • Why do people reject scientific explanations? • When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. • Misunderstanding of chance and coincidence; • Confirmatory bias • Emotional needs & “the will to believe”; • Sense of control • Sense of transcendence • Cultural patterns • (Intentional) Confusion of fact with opinion. • Uncritical media coverage Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

American penchant for conspiracy theories • Largely fear based • Richard Hofstadter; the paranoid style of American Politics • Individual / group animosity key to world view • Low tolerance for ambiguity; beliefs are absolutely true or completely false. • Person centered: Beliefs that… • …only individual or group agendas drive science, not actual evidence • Consensus among scientists is denied, to make conclusions appear arbitrary. • …”many scientists do not accept climate change…” • …”scientists disagree on how evolution even works…” • “Closed loop” logic; • Attempts to test or refute the theory are just evidence of the conspiracy itself (e.g., the “lame stream media”). • Circumstantial evidence from small events • E.g., if it is cold today global warming is a myth • Powerful confirmatory bias • “Evidence” consistent with the conspiracy theory is accepted & publicized • Contrary evidence is ignored, dismissed or distorted

Examples of anti-scientific conspiracy theories. • Autism is caused by the MMR Vaccine • HIV is not the cause of AIDS • Global warming is a Hoax “Just so you know, global warming is a total fraud and it is being designed by… liberals who get elected at the local level want state government to do the work and let them make the decisions.”… “That’s what the game plan is. It’s … more and bigger control over our lives by higher levels of government. And global warming is that strategy in spades”. Dana Rohrabacher. R California. “One of the difficulties in examining the issue of the climate change and greenhouse gases is that there is a wide range of scientific opinion on this issue and the science community does not agree to the extent of the problem or the critical threshold of when this problem is truly catastrophic.” Daryl Issa, R-Cal. Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Bottom line • American political and religious trends are often not supportive of empirical or scientific thought • A scientific (rational, empirical) perspective: • combines rational thought with empirical evidence • is not just a “research method”, but is a larger approach to knowledge. • In addition, our cognitive and emotional dispositions may make rational, evidence-based judgments more difficult… Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Intuition and Magical thought • Our brains may be “hard wired” for intuitive, “Magical Thought” Weeks 1 & 2; Introduction to science.

Psychology 242, Dr. McKirnan