Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 20

Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 87 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment. Robert Gross and Becky Mawhood Centre for Energy Policy and Technology Imperial College London Imperial College Energy Futures Lab. Outline. Context – the decarbonisation challenge and growth in green energy The policy map

Download Presentation

Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment

Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment

Robert Gross and Becky Mawhood

Centre for Energy Policy and Technology

Imperial College London

Imperial College Energy Futures Lab


Outline

Outline

  • Context – the decarbonisation challenge and growth in green energy

  • The policy map

  • The investment challenges

  • What’s policy been doing and what does policy need to do?

  • Conclusions


The scale of the climate challenge

The scale of the climate challenge

IEA, 2010 “Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050”


Increasing demand from developing countries

Increasing demand from developing countries

Source: IEA WEO 2012 Presentation to Press


Investment flows

Investment flows

Global new investment in

renewable energy increased

17% in 2011, to a new record

of USD 257 billion.

This was more than six times

the figure for 2004, and 94%

more than the total in 2007,

the last year before the acute

phase of the recent global

financial crisis.

Ren 21 Global Status Report 2012


A growing fraction of investment

A growing fraction of investment


Proportion of investment in developing countries

Proportion of investment in developing countries

Source: Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF (2013). Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2013.


Increasing policy interest

Increasing policy interest

  • 138 countries have targets

  • 127 countries have support policies

  • Two-thirds of these are emerging economies

Source: REN21(2013) Global Status Report


Diverse targets and policies

Diverse targets and policies

Source: REN21 (2013) Global Status Report


But all is not entirely well

BUT all is not entirely well….

  • Swinging FiT cuts in some countries

  • Dissatisfaction and reaction against price impacts amongst some publics

  • The ‘solar bubble’ and trade war

  • The ‘shale gas effect’ – cheaper coal, changed perception of scarcity, rewards to FF innovation

  • Climate scepticism (or boredom?)


Oecd issues financing the transition e g britain s investment challenge scale

OECD issues – financing the transitione.g. Britain’s investment challenge - scale

What do we need?

  • £75b required for new gen capacity *

  • £30b alone for offshore wind ?**

  • Current big 6 spend around £5b/year

  • Dash for gas was about £11b total

  • Total market value of all existing UK generation plant is c. £50b***

  • Huge plans for economic infrastructure at UK, EU and global level

  • UK policy/investment environment attractive vs peers?

  • EMR WP, Chapter 2 ** DECC Roadmap (at current prices) *** SSE, An Energy White Paper


Africa s is scale too but also source

Africa’s is scale too – but also source

Capital investment in Sub Saharan Africa’s electricity sector by source

Source data: AFD/WB (2010). Africa’s Infrastructure – A Time for Transformation


Increasing private investment

Increasing private investment?

Capital investment in Sub Saharan Africa’s electricity sector by source

Source data: AFD/WB (2010). Africa’s Infrastructure – A Time for Transformation

Source: World Economic Forum (2013) .The Green Investment Report.


Looking ahead what s policy trying to achieve

Looking ahead – what’s policy trying to achieve?


1 buy down costs

1. Buy down costs

Mott Macdonald and the CCC 2011

IEA 2000, Learning curves report


Taking stock of clean energy policy and private sector investment

PV – policies and buy down….

Average module price reduction over time (left) versus annual PV cell/module production (right)

O'Rourke et al., 2009 in FITT Research Report. Deutsche Bank. May 2008. 2009.

EPIA and EU PV Technology Platform, Solar Europe Industry Initiative (SEII). Summary implementation plan 2010-1012, in EPIA Draft Report, April 2010. 2010.


2 create stability meet investor needs

2. Create stability, meet investor needs

Net present value representation of the spread of returns arising from different CO2 and fuel price scenarios (taken from UK Energy Review ) (Working Paper by Will Blyth for UKERC 2006)

Spread in levelised costs arising from different CO2 and fuel price scenarios (taken from UK Energy Review ) (Working Paper by Will Blyth 2006)


Policies like the uk cfd fits transfer risk

Policies like the UK CfDFiTs transfer risk


But also 3 suit the context

But also 3. suit the context….

  • Institutional and political feasibility are key

    • E.g. Senegal ASER

      • conceptually strong, popular with donors, good leverage but… slow progress, turbulent management, ‘blocking’ by Senelec, etc…

      • Need to avoid tail wags dog – liberalised approach to suit donor beliefs not beneficiary needs

  • Affordability and believability also essential

  • Who does what, with what?

    • Incumbents/new entrants, large scale/small scale, new tech/old tech, government/companies, community/profit….


Conclusions thoughts

Conclusions/thoughts

  • Green growth is already a reality

  • Policy more contested, trade offs now central

  • Continuation is not a given, FF renaissance…?

  • Policy essential, we know (broadly) what works

  • What works is context specific – IF is key

  • Decades of experience

    • opportunity to learn from what works

    • Avoid pointless policy ‘innovation’ = ground hog day?

  • Interesting times…!


  • Login