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The Employment Challenge. North Carolina Chapter – Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations. May 3, 2012. Let’s s tart at the very beginning… Triangle Regional Modal (TRM). TRM is key transportation analysis tool, for example: MPOs: V/C and LRTP alternatives

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the employment challenge

The Employment Challenge

North Carolina Chapter – Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations

May 3, 2012

let s s tart at the very beginning triangle regional modal trm
Let’s start at the very beginning…Triangle Regional Modal (TRM)
  • TRM is key transportation analysis tool, for example:
    • MPOs: V/C and LRTP alternatives
    • NCDOT: feasibility and environmental studies
    • Triangle Transit: passenger rail ridership
    • Turnpike Commission: bonding
    • Air Quality Conformity

So… TRM is very important!

slide3

Triangle Regional Modal (TRM)Role of SE Data

Input

Output

Performance Measures

Transportation Network

V/C

(Travel Behavior)

TRM

Households

Transit Ridership

Employment

Etc.

Ten counties.

se data population
SE Data -- Population
  • Census (if new decade, i.e., 2010)
    • Census blocks are nested inside of TRM Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)
    • Population, households, household size easy to get
    • Average income is a challenge
  • Inspections data (if intervening years, i.e., 2005)
    • Base growth from last Census on certificates of occupancy (COs) for new dwelling units

Thank God for Census

and Inspections!

slide5

SE Data -- Employment

  • Needed:
    • Control data (totals by county, or city, or town)
      • Distribute to TAZ level (top down), or
      • Check employment distribution (bottom up)
    • Employment location
slide6

Employment – Control Totals

Which estimate to use?

Many variables:

Government

Farm

Military

Self employed

Residence v Place of work

Snapshot v Total for year

Etc…

slide7

Employment – Control Totals

Employment Security Commission (ESC)

  • The Good
  • Quarterly report by all employers subject to employment insurance
  • Snapshot (it is not total of different employees in that quarter)
  • Full- and part-time workers
  • Place of work
  • The Bad
  • HQ or regional office payroll might show employees outside of area
  • Under reports by about 8%

So make a little adjustment….

Total ESC Employment x (100/92) = Adjusted ESC

slide8

Employment – Control Totals

Adjusted Employment Security Commission (ESC)

How well does it work?

slide9

Employment – Location (TAZ)

Sad Story

Gonna tell ya’ a story…

Back in about 2004…

Concept was…

ESC

InfoUSA

Assumption was…

InfoUSA had ~ 2/3 to ¾ of employment records

Employment Security Commission had ~ 2/3 to ¾ of employment records

slide10

Employment – Location (TAZ)

Sad Story (cont.)

Reality was…

InfoUSA

ESC

Many problems

  • DBA v legal name
  • Subsets of large establishments done differently
  • GeoCoding errors
  • Most establishments are small, so there were tens of thousands of duplicates.
  • Etc.
slide11

Employment – Location (TAZ)

Happy Story

Employment Geocoder application

Add

Modify

Delete

InfoUSA

(2/3 to 3/4 of employers)

Employment by TAZ

slide14

Employment GeoCoder – Detailed Data

  • Check theBig Three

geolocation;

no. of employees; and

employment category.

slide16

Employment GeoCoder – Process

What do we do?

  • Train local planners on using GeoCoder: Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, etc.
  • Give access to GeoCoder via Web
  • Provide strategies for doing the job
slide18

Employment GeoCoder – Keep Your Focus

The medium-to-high concentrations of employees are most critical for the TRM to function properly.

Thus…

Focus on large employers and employment centers

Sparse numbers of small employers are a low priority.

Don’t let perfection kill your progress!

slide19

Employment GeoCoder – Resources

  • Make sure to cover:
  • Large retail centers and strip malls
  • Office parks and centers
  • Commercial centers
  • Compare with other resources:
  • Chamber of Commerce list.
  • Economic Development office list.
  • Tax database.
  • Parcel database (land use codes).
  • Employment Security Commission (ESC).
  • School district.
  • Business license.
  • Google street view.
  • Photo marquis and facades
slide20

Employment GeoCoder -- Conclusion

Costs…

Lots of work

Lots of collaboration

Benefits…

Reliable data

More confidence

Good base for forecasts

mpos and trm area
MPOs and TRM Area

Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro MPO

Capital Area MPO

slide22

Employment – Location

Top Down

Bottom Up

Durham County

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