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Results of the 2009 Business Trends Survey. Presentation by: Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products) Committee members: Ed Dailey (GSP-Thyssenkrupp) David Hahn (Lift Technologies) Marc Kemper (Cascade Corporation) Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products) Chris Palmer (IMPCO) Jorge Roa (Michelin)

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slide1

Results of the 2009 Business Trends Survey

Presentation by:

Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products)

Committee members:

Ed Dailey (GSP-Thyssenkrupp)

David Hahn (Lift Technologies)

Marc Kemper (Cascade Corporation)

Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products)

Chris Palmer (IMPCO)

Jorge Roa (Michelin)

2009 ITA Fall Meeting

The Barton Creek Resort & Spa

slide2

Results of the 2009 Business Trends Survey

Presentation by:

Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products)

Panel members:

Aurelio Carinci (Exide Technologies)

Jim Malvaso (Raymond Corporation)

Jorge Roa (Michelin)

Jeff Rufener (MCFA)

2009 ITA Fall Meeting

The Barton Creek Resort & Spa

slide3

2009 Business Trend Survey

Categories

Markets and Models: China, India, South America & Economic Factors

Procurement Practices

Future Technologies and/or

Design Changes

ITA Related

slide4

2009 Business Trend Survey

Markets and Models: China

slide5

I) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Question 1)

slide6

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

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II) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Question 1A)

A. Exporting US produced products to China

4.5

4.7

4.2

3.8

2006

2007

2008

2009

20 responses

slide7

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

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III) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Question 1B)

B. Partnering with Chinese forklift mfg to produce trucks in China

7.1

7.1

6.9

6.7

2006

2007

2009

2008

20 responses

slide8

IV) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Question 1C)

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

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C. Seeking parts suppliers in China

9.1

8.3

8.4

8.2

2006

2008

2007

2009

20 responses

slide9

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

º ITA

10

10

10

10

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V) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Question 1D)

D. Building Trucks in China for the Chinese Market

8.3

8.0

6.7

6.7

2006

2008

2007

2009

20 responses

slide10

VI) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant impact, what will be the impact of Chinese-produced lift trucks on the North American market over the next 5 years by Truck Class? (This includes trucks made by ITA member companies in China and shipped to the North America.) – (Survey Question 4)

Class 2

Class 1

Class 3

20 responses

15 responses

20 responses

Class 5

Class 4

19 responses

20 responses

Revisedin2008

slide11

2009 Business Trend Survey

Markets and Models:

India and South America

11

slide12

VII) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to India and South America as a potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Questions 2 & 3)

Newin 2009

12

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º ITA India

º ITA SA

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VIII) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to India and South America as potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Questions 2 & 3 A)

3A. Exporting US produced products to South America

2A. Exporting US produced products to India

7.2

4.7

4.1

New Question 2009

2009

2009

20 responses

20 responses

13

slide14

º ITA India

º ITA SA

10

10

9

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IX) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to India and South America as potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Question 2 & 3 B)

3B. Partnering with South American forklift mfg to produce trucks in South America

2B. Partnering with India forklift mfg to produce trucks in India

9.1

7.2

5.5

4.7

New Question 2009

2009

2009

20 responses

18 responses

14

slide15

º ITA India

º ITA SA

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

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2

1

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X) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to India and South America as potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Questions 2 & 3 C)

3C. Seeking parts suppliers in South America

2C. Seeking parts suppliers in India

6.6

4.7

4.7

New Question 2009

2009

2009

20 responses

20 responses

15

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º ITA India

º ITA SA

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

XI) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to India and South America as potential market in the following ways by 2014? (Survey Questions 2 & 3 D)

3D. Building Trucks in South America for the South America Market

2D. Building Trucks in India for the India Market

5.5

4.7

4.7

New Question 2009

2009

2009

20 responses

18 responses

16

slide17

XII) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant impact, what will be the impact of India-produced lift trucks on the North American market over the next 5 years by Truck Class? (This includes trucks made by ITA member companies in India and shipped to the North America.) – (Survey Question 5)

Class 1

Class 2

Class 3

19 responses

21 responses

19 responses

Class 5

Class 4

19 responses

20 responses

17

New Question 2009

slide18

2009 Business Trend Survey

Markets and Models: Economic Factors

18

xiii check the top 5 markets that drive your companies overall business survey question 6
XIII) Check the top 5 Markets that drive your companies overall business:(Survey Question 6)

XIII) Check the top 5 Markets that drive your companies overall business:(Survey Question 6)

Top 5 Markets

19

NewQuestionin 2009

xiii check the top 5 markets that drive your companies overall business survey question 61

XIV) Compared to 2008 sales, how do sales for each of the 5 industries selected above look for 2009?(Survey Question 7)

XIII) Check the top 5 Markets that drive your companies overall business:(Survey Question 6)

NewQuestionin 2009

20

slide21

XV) Compared to 2008 sales, how do sales for each of the 5 industries selected above look for 2010?(Survey Question 8)

NewQuestionin 2009

21

slide22

XVI) Does your company see any immediate positive impact from the Federal Government\'s economic stimulus package?(Survey Question 9)

Does your company see any immediate positive impact from the Federal Government\'s economic stimulus package??

2009: 17 Respondents 18% - Answered Yes 82% - Answered No

If Yes, what areas do you foresee an impact?

Infrastructure, government orders and auto parts

NewQuestionin 2009

22

slide23

XVII) Compared to 2008 material costs are ?? (Survey Question 10)

In 2010 we are forecasting material costs to ??(Survey Question 11)

10 ) Compared to 2008 material costs are ??

35% - Falling 45% - Stay the same 20% - Rising

11 )In 2010 we are forecasting material costs to ??

0% - Falling 11% - Stay the same 89% - Rising

2009: 20 Responses

NewQuestionin 2009

23

slide24

XVIII) Compared to 2008 , demand for our products are?? (Survey Question 12)

In 2010 we are forecasting demand to ?? (Survey Question 13)

12 ) Compared to 2008 demand for our products are ??

65% - Falling 10% - Stay the same 25% – Rising

13 )In 2010 we are forecasting demand for our products to ??

0% - Falling 20% - Stay the same 80% - Rising

2009: 20 Responses

NewQuestionin 2009

24

slide25

XIX) Compared to 2008, finished goods inventory are? (Survey Question 14)

In 2010 we are forecasting finished goods inventory to ?(Survey Question 15)

14 ) Compared to 2008 our finished goods inventories are ??

74% - Falling 26% - Stay the same 0% - Rising

15 )In 2010 we are forecasting finished goods inventories to ??

0% - Falling 84% - Stay the same 16% - Rising

2009: 20 Responses

NewQuestionin 2009

25

slide26

2009 Business Trend Survey

ProcurementPractices

slide27

XX) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that a continuing weak dollar will result in manufacturing and component sourcing be moved back to the USA from overseas? (Survey Question 16)

NewQuestionin 2008

slide28

XXI) If it is likely, what types of manufacturing processes and/or component sourcing would be transferred back to the USA? (Survey Question 17)

New Question 2008

slide29

XXII) With regard to procurement practices and outsourcing, please state the percentage of your business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways. (Survey Question 18 A&B)

  • What percent of your components and subassemblies are you buying?
  • 2009: 58%2014: 54%
  • 2008: 66% 2013: 63%
  • 2007: 52%2012: 63%
  • What percent of your components and subassemblies are you buying?
  • 2009: 58%2014: 54%
  • 2008: 66% 2013: 63%
  • 2007: 52%2012: 63%

B.What percent of those purchased components and subassemblies are used in other subassemblies (vs. being directly assembled on the truck)?

2009: 28%2014: 36%

2008: 33% 2013: 34%

2007: 33%2012: 36%

18 responses

29

slide30

XXIII) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important are these issues which are outside the supplier’s control? (Survey Question 19)

Revised in 2008

slide31

XXIV) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following: (Survey Question 20A)

18 to 20 responses in each category

slide32

XXV) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following: (Survey Question 20B)

19 responses in each category

slide33

XXVI) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following: (Survey Question 20C)

slide34

XXVII) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following: (Survey Question 20D)

19 responses

  • 2007 2008 2009
slide35

XXVIII) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is a supplier’s capability to provide the following: (Survey Question 20 E&F)

19 responses

20082009 20082009

Revised in 2008

slide36

XXXIX) Will your supplier base substantially increase, substantially decrease, or stay approximately the same over the next five years? (Survey Question 21)

19 responses

slide37

XXX) Questions 22 A, 22B and 22C covered a manufactures ability to prove authenticity of specified materials, components and systems to verify such. (Survey Questions 22 A,B,C)

22A. On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being excellent, how would you rate your ability to prove authenticity of specified materials & components?

2009: 19 Respondents Average Rating: 7.8 out of 10

22B. Does your company have a quality system to identify counterfeit components?

2009: 19 Respondents 53% - Answered Yes 47% - Answered No

22C. Do you see a need for such a quality system over the next 5 years that would insure that authentic parts are used?

2009: 19 Respondents 68% - Answered Yes 32% - Answered No

New Question in 2009

slide38

2009 Business Trend Survey

Future Technologies

and/or Design Changes

slide39

XXXI) What percent of trucks currently use “add on” data management systems? (Survey Question 23)

% of Market

New Question in 2008

slide40

XXXII) What percent of trucks will incorporate “OEM Produced” data management systems in 2014? (Survey Question 24)

% of Market

19 responses

2008 Data = Base line

slide41

XXXIII) What percent of trucks will use electronic horns in 2014? (Survey Question 25)

% ofMarket

% of Market

19 responses

19 Responses

2008 Data = Base line

xxxiv what percent of trucks will use led lights displays in 2014 survey question 26
XXXIV) What percent of trucks will use LED lights/displays in 2014?(Survey Question 26)

19 responses

% of Market

2008 Data = Base line

slide43
XXXV) What percent of trucks will recover energy from regenerative braking by 2014? (Survey Question 27A)

19 Responses

% of Market

2008 Data = Base line

slide44

XXXVI) What percent of trucks will recover energy from lowering loads in 2014? (Survey Question 27B)

19 Responses

% ofMarket

% of Market

19 responses

% of Market

2008 Data = Base line

slide45

XXXVII) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the most likely, what is the likelihood that fuel cell powered trucks will be available by 2014? (Survey Question 28A)

19 Responses

18 Responses

18 Responses

19 responses

19 responses

19 Responses

slide46

XXXVIII) What percent of the total electric truck market will fuel cells have in the next 5 years? (Survey Question 28 B)

% of Market

19 responses

19 responses

19 Responses

New in 2008

slide47

XXXIX) When do you expect a fuel cell system (including hydrogen sourcing) to show a positive lifecycle cost versus lead acid battery and charger systems? (Survey Question 29)

18 Responses

2008 Data = Base line

slide48

XL) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most import, please rate the importance of the following items as they pertain to fuel cell technologies? - 18 & 19 Responses (Survey Question 30)

New in 2008

2009

2009

2009

2009

slide49

XLI) What other energy source technologies (other than lead acid batteries and fuel cells) could be used in 2013 (Lithium Ion, Carbon-Graphite Matrix (FireFly), etc.? (Survey Question 31)

14 Responses

New Question in 2008- Lithium Ion, Super Capacitors, All the above (Lithium Ion is the one name mentioned the most often, but all were named)

slide50

XLII) What percent of the market will be garnered by opportunity charging within 5 years? (Survey Question 32)

slide51

XLIII) With regard to batteries and chargers, what percentage of trucks will use fast charging within 5 years? (Survey Question 33)

slide52

XLIV) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important is it to develop a communications protocol to transfer battery usage information for fast charging and fleet management? (Survey Question 34)

  • Results from 17 Respondents 2009 Survey was Average = 7.0

New in 2009

slide53

XLV) Is there a need for international standards to be developed for fast charging in the following areas? (Survey Question 35)

17 “YES” Responses

slide54
XLVI) For Engine Powered forklifts, what percent change do you foresee in their use within the next 5 years? (Survey Question 36A)

18 Responses

Revised in 2008

slide55
XLVII) For Engine Powered forklifts, what percent change do you foresee in their use within the next 5 years? (Survey Question 36B)

19 Responses

Revised in 2008

slide56
XLVIII) For Engine Powered forklifts, what percent change do you foresee in their use within the next 5 years? (Survey Question 36C)

15 Responses

Revised in 2008

slide57
XLIX) For Engine Powered forklifts, what percent change do you foresee in their use within the next 5 years? (Survey Question 36D)

18 Responses

Revised in 2008

slide58
L) For Engine Powered forklifts, what percent change do you foresee in their use within the next 5 years? (Survey Question 36E)

19 Responses

Revised in 2008

slide59

LI) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the very likely, what is the likelihood that hybrid trucks will be available by 2014? (Survey Question 28C)

17 Responses

19 responses

19 responses

19 Responses

slide60

LII) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being very likely, how likely is it that the following types of hybrid trucks will be in use in 2014? (Survey Question 28D)

19 responses

Newin 2008

slide61

LIII) What contribution from tire technology would you like or expect for the industrial trucks of the future? (Survey Question 37)

26 Responses

New Question 2009

61

slide62

LIV) With regard to electro-hydraulic controls for IC and battery 4-wheel trucks, what percentage of each do you anticipate will be using electro-hydraulic controls in 2009 and 2014? (Survey Question 38 A&B)

IC trucks

Battery 4-wheel trucks

17 responses

16 responses

slide64

LX) Are your company’s expectations of associate supplier members’ participation in ITA being realized? (Survey Question 39)

Are your company’s expectations of associate supplier members’ participation in ITA being realized?

2009: (19 Respondents) 100% - Answered Yes 0% - Answered No

XLIV) Where do you see associate members involvement in ITA needs improvements if any? (Survey Question 40)

2009: ( 0 Respondents) - No Response to question 40.

Newin 2009

64

slide65

LXI) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being extremely important how important is participation by Associate Members? (Survey Question 41)

19 Responses

19 Responses

18 Responses

slide66

LXII) Please indicate if the following individuals in your company were consulted in answering these questions (check as many as were contacted): (Survey Question 42)

66

slide67

Results of the 2009 Business Trends Survey

Presentation by:

Urs Nager (Anderson Power Products)

Panel members:

Aurelio Carinci (Exide Technologies)

Jim Malvaso (Raymond Corporation)

Jorge Roa (Michelin)

Jeff Rufener (MCFA)

2009 ITA Fall Meeting

The Barton Creek Resort & Spa

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