Final Exam

1. Final Exam • Essay • 2 short answer – we expect about 2, 3, 4 pages but mainly expect a good answer to the question • 15 multiple choice questions

2. Final Essay • How well do realism, institutionalism, and feminist theories explain the patterns of international relations we observe in ONE pair of these issue area pairs. a) security and human rights, b) security and environmental affairs, c) economic affairs and human rights, d) economic affairs and environmental affairs. • No mix and match – write only on one of these pairs • Make comparisons across 3 theories and across 2 issue areas. • what parts of a given issue area are best explained by one theory and which parts are better explained by another theory • for each theory, whether it does better, worse, or equally well at explaining international relations in one issue area compared to the other issue area you have chosen

3. The POLITICS of Climate Change:Pessimism and Optimism

4. Generating agreement:From Negotiation To Agreement • “Getting to Yes” • Why are states Pushers, Draggers, Bystanders, Intermediates with respect to climate change? • Ecological vulnerability: Costs countries face if problem NOT addressed • Abatement costs: Costs country will incur if take action to address the problem • Negotiating position as DV; vulnerability and abatement costs as IV

5. Determinants of country negotiating positions

6. Actual positions • Europeans: act now, developing countries not required, flexibility • US: supportive only if developing countries included • AOSIS: developing states pushing for action because their interests directly and clearly affected • OPEC: oppose action on fossil fuels • Developing countries: avert problem but not the cause and lack capacities to respond • Separate “who plays from who pays” (Schneider) • Debates involving lack of concern, effectiveness, and equity, inter alia

7. Goal of negotiations • Find the ZOPA (“zone of possible agreement”) -- intersection of different countries’ positions • Overcome “collective action problems” (incentives to cheat in Tragedy of the Commons problems) • Write agreement to reduce costs or increase benefits to make “pushers” out of draggers, bystanders, intermediates • Negotiators “three-fold choice” (Ikle 1964): • Accept terms currently on the table • Keep negotiating • Exit the negotiations

8. Generating action:From Agreement To Action • Who’s responsible • Where we need to be • Deep social causes of the problem: IPAT • What do we need to change? • The policy options • Mitigation • Adaptation • Geo-engineering • Grieving and loss

9. Who’s responsible?Depends on how you count % of total global emissions 20% 2% 15% 5% 5% 20% 5% http://www.wri.org/image/view/9255/_original

10. Where we need to be:450ppm=2 t/person • CO2: • Pre-industrial: ~280ppm • Current: ~380ppm • Trajectory to 550ppm by 2100 • But major impacts at 450ppm ~4oF • And stopping at 450ppm is “likely ... unachievable with current & foreseeable technologies” (Stern report) Sources: T. Wang. 2007. China’s Cumulative Carbon Emission & Pathways over the 21st Century. Accessed: 19 March 2009. At: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/sussexenergygroup/documents/tao_wang_china_s_carbon_emission_pathways_20070902.ppt and US EPA, Recent Atmospheric Changes. Accessed 19 March 2009. At: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html

11. Where we need to be:450ppm=2 t/person http://www.wri.org/image/view/9255/_original

12. Socio-economic causes of climate change • IPAT Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology • Impact: environmental harm • Population: # of people • Affluence: $ per person (income) • Technology: impact per $ (carbon intensity)

13. +1.3%/yr since 1996 Doubles by 2065 +1.8%/yr since 1996 Doubles by 2050 -0.7%/yr since 1996 Halves by 2110 The Deep Social Causes +2.4%/yr since 1996 Doubles by 2040 Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2010

14. Technological solutions alone may be inadequate • 3% per year net growth due to population and affluence requires 3% per year net decline from technology (CO2/$) just to stabilizeemissions • Meeting 80% reduction by 2100 requires 2% per year reduction in emissions • Technology must generate ongoing 5% per year emission reductions to achieve required reductions but currently less than 1% per year

15. What are the policy options? • Mitigation • Adaptation • Geo-engineering • Grieving and loss

16. What is being done?Mitigation • UN FCCC of 1992 and Kyoto Protocol of 1997 • Governments: India, China, US, Europe, Japan; Costa Rica: 3.5% carbon tax since 1997 • States: Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative; Western Climate Initiative • Cities: ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability: >1000 cities, towns • NGOs/Corporations: WWF, Greenpeace, Nike, Levi’s, etc. • Multinational corporations • Religions: Faith Action on Climate Change, Interfaith Power & Light, Evangelical Environmental Network, • Individuals: Voluntary Simplicity, direct action

17. What is being done?Adaptation Relocate and displace Protect infrastructure Change behaviors

18. What may be done?Geo-engineering

19. The Snows of Kilimanjaro 1976 What has been lost?Grieving and loss Ivory-billed Woodpecker: Killed by Hurricane Katrina? http://earthshots.usgs.gov/earthshots/Mount-Kilimanjaro Mt.Hood: Like this in Winter? http://www.gambassa.com/public/project/profile/0/0/2771/AveryHorne%27sIvoryBilledWoodpeckerreport.jpg http://mthoodrentals.blogspot.com/2011/05/schools-almost-out-have-you-planned.html

20. The Snows of Kilimanjaro 2010 What has been lost?Grieving and loss Ivory-billed Woodpecker: Killed by Hurricane Katrina? http://earthshots.usgs.gov/earthshots/Mount-Kilimanjaro Mt.Hood: Like this in Winter? http://www.gambassa.com/public/project/profile/0/0/2771/AveryHorne%27sIvoryBilledWoodpeckerreport.jpg http://mthoodrentals.blogspot.com/2011/05/schools-almost-out-have-you-planned.html

21. This is a hard and scary problemSo, some words to live by • Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. ~Leo Tolstoy • Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little. ~Edmund Burke • The true meaning of life is to plant trees, under whose shade you do not expect to sit. ~Nelson Henderson • Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better.  It's not. ~Dr. Seuss

22. Ethics andInternational Relations

23. Ethics of war • What ethical responsibilities do we have to people of other nations during war? • Logic of war - inherently unlimited. Clausewitz’s notion that once go to war, placing limits is simply a sure way to lose.

24. Limit of consent - soldiers must have consented • Draft vs. all-volunteer army? What if all-volunteer army is recruited "from among desperately impoverished men, who can find no other way of feeding themselves and their families except by signing up" (Walzer). • Soldiers as victims of war

25. Just Ends of War • Jus Ad Bellum "Justice of War" • Just/moral reasons for going to war • Self-defense against overt aggression • Preemptive intervention • Balancing prior intervention • Rescue people threatened with massacre • Assist self-determination movements when they have demonstrated representative character.

26. Just Means of War • Jus In Bello "Justice in War" • Just/moral methods of fighting war • How do we distinguish war from murder and massacre? • Last resort • Directed by competent authority • Probability of success • Proportionality • Discriminate • Self-defense • Soldiers not responsible for war itself

27. The future of the world:Zakariaarticle • Against realism • Interdependence leads to peace, as institutionalists argue • Actors • Trade • Nationalism

28. Review of post-midterm classes • European Union lecture by Craig Parsons • Institutional / regime theory • Economic development • Human Rights and genocide • International environment and climate change