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REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POL

REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT?. Uta Ziegler Gabriele Doblhammer Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Tours, 23.07.2005. INTRODUCTION. 1. population aging in Germany 2001 2050

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REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POL

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  1. REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT? Uta Ziegler Gabriele Doblhammer Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Tours, 23.07.2005

  2. INTRODUCTION 1. population aging in Germany 20012050 inhabitants 82.4 Mio 75 Mio 60+ 24% 37% 80+ 3.9% 12% 2. Development of people in need of care? 20012050 needy people 2.04 Mio ? 2.47% ? Quelle: StBA (10. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, mittlere Variante)

  3. Data • SOEP - SocioEconomic Panel • started in 1984 in West Germany with • 5921 households, 12290 surveyed people • in 1990 East Germany was included with • 2179 households, 4453 surveyed people • Analysis starts in 1991

  4. RESULTS - 3912 people are included during analysis time (1991-2003) - 44% males (StBA: 42% in 2000) - 27% East Germans (StBA: 18.3% in 2000) - 309 events

  5. Data Care Question: “Does someone in your household need constant care due to old age or illness?” - if yes, with - errands outside the house - running the household - preparing meals and drinks - simple personal help (dressing, washing, etc.) - difficult personal help (getting in and out of bed, bowel movement etc.)

  6. Data • the different samples in the SOEP

  7. METHOD LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS - event studied: transition into care need of people above age 60 - event-history model applied - left truncated data – no information about health status before entry into panel - definition of care: help needed with „simple personal help“ and „difficult personal help“

  8. RESULTS • absolute risk of transition into care need per • 1000-person-years

  9. RESULTS source: SOEP (Note: ***p<0.01; **0.01≤p<0.05; *0.05≤p<0.1

  10. RESULTS • Interaction between Region and Period ≤ source: SOEP

  11. RESULTS • Interaction between Sex and Period ≤ source: SOEP

  12. RESULTS Figure 2: Trends in the age standardized incidence of care (per 1000 person years) for German males between 1991/92 and 2002/03 (with 95% confidence intervalls) ≤ source: SOEP

  13. RESULTS Figure 2: Trends in the age standardized incidence of care (per 1000 person years) for German males between 1991/92 and 2002/03 (with 95% confidence intervalls) ≤ source: SOEP

  14. IV. Conclusion - Longitudinal - increase of care need with age - care need incidence slightly higher for males - in second period (1998-2003) lower transition risk for West and East Germans - transition risk decreases primarily for males between the years 1994/95 and 1995/96

  15. V. CONCLUSION compression of morbidity or policy effect?

  16. www.demogr.mpg.de

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