Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University

1. The Human impact Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University Melting of glaciers: During the last 27 years the Quelccaya glacier in Peru retracted. At its place a lake of melted water appeared Kilimanjaro Temperate regions: From 1990 to 2005 the Morteratsch glacier in the Bernina area (Switzerland) retracted several ten meters.

2. The pole caps Duringthreeyears the north polar iceshieldsshrinked by about 30%.

4. http://www.ipcc.ch http://www.grida.no/publications/

5. The worstcasescenario (steadyrise in CO2emissions Predictedchanges in winterprecipitationup to 2100 Measuredtemperatures, precipitation and snowcover (northernhemisphere) since 1850. Predicted changes in summer precipitation up to 2100

6. Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100

7. What is global change? Major global environmental global changes Climate changeClimate change is manifest through the increase of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases Stratospheric ozone lossO3 protect us from the harmful effects of ultraviolet rays. It is destroyed by chlorofluorocarbons Air pollution Air pollution, once thought to be of only local importance (SMOG) has now become a global problem Ocean pollutionPollution more and more reduce the ability of the world’s oceans to sustain life and to provide food Fresh water issuesA rising number of countries has problems to provide it’s people with fresh water Soil degradationOver the past 50 years, about 11% of the earth’s vegetated land surface has experienced moderate top extreme soil degradation Biodiversity loss Although estimates are very imprecise it seems clear that we are actually undergoing a phase of mass extinction.

8. White - red - jack pine Spruce fire Longleaf - slash pine Loblolly - shortical pine Oak - pine Oak - hickory Oak - gum - cypress Elm - ash - cottonwood Maple - beech - birch Aspen - birch -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 2 Area in 1000 km Speciesdistributionmodelling Potential change in area occupied by 10 North American forest types. Mean values of five climatic scenarios that gave similar results(modified from Iverson and Prasad2001, Ecosystems 4: 186-199).

9. 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Gaines 0.6 Rel. species turnover 0.5 2 R = 0.27 0.4 0.3 2 R = 0.58 0.2 0.1 Losses 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Rank geographic position [north to south] Data from Burns et al. (2003) Proc. Natl. Acd. Sci. USA 100: 11474-11477

10. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Land use Climate N deposition Biotic exchange CO2 Major drivers on changes in biodiversity Relative effects of major drivers on changes in biodiversity. Land use was given the value of 1. Sala O. E. et al. 2000. Science 287: 1770-1774

11. Apine Grassland Arctic Boreal 1 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 N N N N CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Climate Climate Climate Climate Land use Land use Land use Land use Exchange Exchange Exchange Exchange Lakes Desert Savanna Mediteranean 1 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 N N N N CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Climate Climate Climate Climate Land use Land use Land use Land use Exchange Exchange Exchange Exchange Streams Northern temperate forests Southern temperate forests Tropical forests 1 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 N N N N CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Climate Climate Climate Climate Land use Land use Land use Land use Exchange Exchange Exchange Exchange Effect of five important drivers on future biodiversity change for 12 terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems or biomes. Sala O. E. et al. 2000. Science 287: 1770-1774

12. Relativeamounts of change under theassumptionthat major driversact independent

13. Relativeamounts of change under theassumptionthat major driversactsynergistic

14. Global biodiversity conservation priorities CE: crisis ecoregions; BH: biodiversity hotspots; EBA: endemic rd areas; CPD: centers of plant diversity; MC: megadiversity countries; G200: global 200 ecoregions; HBWA: high biodiversity wilderness areas; FF: frontier forests; LW: last of the wild From Brooks T. M. et al. 2006. Science 313:58-61

15. Spatialoverlap (percents) betweenninepriorityapproaches Areas of potentialconservationvalueonlypartlyoverlap. Depending on the criteriadifferentareasreceive high conservationvalues. Thereis no unequivocalcriteriumwhicharea to protect. From Brooks T. M. et al. (2006)

16. Primary causes of endangerment for 98 US plant species Agriculture Exotics 5% 6% Grazing Water control 11% 8% Natural causes Military 1% 1% Trampling Logging 8% 7% Fire control 4% Collecting Development 10% 21% Off-road vehicles 6% Roads Oil, Gas, Mining 4% 8%

17. Invasive species „But the cardoon (Cynaracardunculus) has a far wider range.: it now occurs in these latitudes on both sides of the Cordillera across the continent. I saw it in unfrequented spots in Chile, Entre Rios, and Banda oriental. In the latter country alone, very many (probably several hundred) square miles are covered with one mass of these prickly plants, and are impenetrable by man or beast. Over the undulating plains, where these great beds occur, nothing else can live. Before their introduction, however, I apprehend the surface supported as in other parts a rank herbage. I doubt whether any case is on record of an invasion of so grand scale of one plant over the aborigines” Charles Darwin 1839: Voyage of the Beagle.

18. What are invasive species? • Invasive species (neobiota) are those that • were accidently introduced into new habitats by man (alien species) • were intentionally introduced into new habitats by man for commercial purposes • were intentionally introduced into new habitats by man for biological control • greatly extended their natural home ranges towards new areas for instance due to climate change or human activities (roads, tunnels)

19. Some well known examples Gipsy moth Colorado Potato beetle First introduced to Europe in 1877 First record in Poland 1960 First introduced into North America in 1868 Has about 650 different host plants During outbreaks causes major damages in softwood forests

20. Tiger mosquito (Aedesalbopictus) Nil perch The Asian species was first reported from Houston texas in 1985 Now established in Brazil, Europe, and New Zealand Vectors of yellow and dengue fever, as well as encephalitis First occurrence in mainland France in 2006. Now recorded from Belgium, Italy, France, Balkan region. Since 2007 in Middle Europe (Germany) In Germany it partly outcompetes the indigen Culex pipiens. First deadly infection of Chikungunya feaver in Italy 2007. Introduced into the great Est African lakes during the 1950s and 1960s to improve fishering. Caused dramatic changes in faunal and floral composition Caused algal blooms and eutrophication Caused the extinction of more than 200 native fish species (2/3 of all species)

21. Hulecoeteomyiajaponicus Sciuruscarolinensis The Asianbushmosquito was introducuded to southern Europe sinceabout 2000. Since 2013 in Central and Eastern Germany Occasisonalvector of West-Nil virus and Encephalitis. The greysquirrel was introduced to greatbritain in 1989 and sincethenoutcompeted the red squirrelSciurusvulgarisdue to itsresistenceagainstanParapoxvirus. Introducedalso to Ireland, Italy and RPA. In 2006 a campaignagainst the greysqirrelstarted.

22. Eichhornia crassipes Marenzelleria viridis Introduced into China from South America in the 1930s as an ornamental plant, to provide liestock food and to control air pollution Caused reduction of lake areas and let to the extinction of about 30 fish species Reduced lake areas caused climate changes and changes in water cycling The flatworm was introduced via ship ballast water (first records 1979) In the vistula lagoon it has become the dominant species constituting up to 97% of the total biomass of the bottom- living macrofauna

23. Harmonia axyridis In the USA unsuccessfully used as aphid predator in biological control programs since 1916. Sudden spread in USA since 1980. Major impact on natural communities of aphid predators due to its high reproduction rate. First observations of the Asian Lady beetle 2001: Belgium 2002: Germany, Netherlands2004: UK, France 2007: Scandinavia, Poland 2009: Whole of Poland

24. UnknownLeiobunumharvestman(Opilionida) species First observed in the Netherlands (2007) In 2008 massive invasion along the Rhine river up to Switzerland Species are up to 18 cm in diameter. They occur in large colonize of up to several hundred individuals. They show colonial movements.

28. How many species are invasive? Data from McNeely J. A. (1999), Kobelt and Nentwig (2008), Caley et al. 2008, and Sukopp (1990)

29. How do alien species come to Hawaii? 25% of all Hawaiian species are alien

30. A conceptual model of invading species Humanactivities Disturbance Invadingspecies Changing land use Habitat fragmentation Changing of ecosystemfunctioning Changingenvironmentalconditions Changing land management Increasingopportunities for invaders

31. What makes a species invasive? Marcel Rejmanek (1946- • Charcteristics of invasiespecies • r-strategists • have high dispersalability • have small genomesizes • are habitat orfeedinggeneralists • selfpollinators (plants) • havelongfloweringperiods (plants) • have a high proportion of leafarea (grasses) • have small seedsizes (in woodyplants) • occupyoftendisturbedsites DNA contents of 148 Californian angiosperms (from Knight et al. 2005) Whathabitatsaresusceptible to invasions? • Early to mid-successionalhabitats • Mesicenvironments and openwater • Disturbedhabitats • Fragmentedhabitats