WHAT CAN BE LEARNT FROM FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SLOVENIA?

1. WHAT CAN BE LEARNT FROM FORESIGHT ACTIVITIESIN SLOVENIA? Peter STANOVNIK Institute for Economic Research VIII. Bled Forum on Europe Foresight Conference “Governing futures” Bled, 2. - 3. March 2007

2. CONTENTS • Overview of foresight studies in Europe within EFMN • Background for technology foresight exercise in Slovenia • First round of DELPHI survey in 2004 • Second round of technology foresight in 2006/2007 • Messages and recommendations for policy makers (Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Technology, Ministry of Economy, Ministry for Defence, ARRS, TIA, JAPTI)

3. OVERVIEW OF ACTIVITIES WITHINEUROPEAN FORESIGHT MONITORING NETWORK • EFMN articles on foresight studies EU, American, Japanese level (22%) Country level: - old EU member states (45%) - new EU member states (10%) Other countries, regions (23%) • Over 1400 foresight initiatives • Other documents

4. CHRONOLOGY OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SLOVENIA • study Key technologies (prepared for Ministry for Science and Technology by prof. M. Kos in 1997) • Foresight-Slotech 2010, conference organised by Ministry for Science and Ministry for Economy, 2001 • Analysis of key technologies and possibilities of establishing technology networks in Slovenia, IER, 2002 • Christians attitude towards the future and various scenarios of the catholic church in Slovenia, R. Schweiger, Gregorian University Rome, 2004 • Future-Oriented Policy Analysis: A Tool for Building and Managing Governance for Sustainable Development, Vienna 2007 (Ana Jakil) • 1. phase of Technology Foresight conducted by Institute for Economic Research for Ministry for Science and Technology, IER, 2004 • 2. phase of Technology Foresight, IER 2006/07

5. EIS 2005 Innovation performance (relative to EU average) - SLOVENIA

7. OBJECTIVES OF EXERCISE IN 2006/07 • a way of discussing a future among main stakeholders • to strengthen a futures-oriented thinking in companies and research organizations and building collaboration culture • to identify thematic areas of expertise with potential for growth and restructuring of manufacturing and service sectors • to collect information and design processes for identifying priority areas in which Slovenia should build expertise (National R&D programme 2006-2010, white book on Competitiveness) • basis for calls for basic and applied R&D projects

8. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH • DELPHI method (2. round), expert panels • identification of 6 technological areas: • information and communication technologies (ICT) • advanced materials • biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition • environmentally acceptable manufacturing • sustainable construction • industrial chemistry • proposal of 40-50 theses in each thematic field (area)

9. SURVEY PROCEDURES The evaluation questions/criteria: • knowledge of the respondent • innovation level of a particular thesis • importance of development (of a particular thesis) for Slovenia • prospects for accomplishment of the thesis within the period of the next 10-15 years • development stage • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to its R&D stage • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to the organisational transformation (business model) • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to the economic use in terms of new products/services • economy’s preparedness and willingness to invest in a particular technological area

10. MESSAGES FOR POLICY MAKERS • Discontinuity and incoherent R&D and technology policy • TF is not a part of the decission-making process (institutional separation) • Need for broader socio-economic foresight study • TF stakeholders are not enough prepared for the technological breakthroughs or technology disruptions • Small critical mass of experts in some areas • Inclusion of politicians, lawyers, media, NGO’s (besides scientists and engineers) into public discourse about the future

11. RESULTS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - 1 • identification of preliminary technological theses within main thematic areas, for example in advanced materials: • Nanocrystalinic materials, • Intelligent materials with sensor and actuator capacities, • Liquid polymers for electrical building materials, • Availability of centres for material development with a particular attention paid to simulation, modelling, engineering and consulting, • Materials for medical-technical purposes, • Water-based metal cleaning, • Steels reinforced with particles, construction steels reinforced with dispersion, composite materials, Al-composites, • Multifunctional materials, • Highly permeable electric sheet-metals, either alloyed or unalloyed, • Composites for thermal durability, • Tapes of steel manufactured according to the methods of dust metallurgy, • Environmentally acceptable materials (elements,…), • Metals for weight reduction in transport of the automotive and railway industry, • Improvement of high-temperature gas combustion systems, • Materials in the automotive industry.

12. RESULTS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - 2 • continuation of dialogue between experts in public research organisations and private business sectors • analytical background for preparation of calls for technology programmes and for applied research projects (MVZT, MG, MO, ARRS, TIA) • follow-up activities (Ministry for Development) • closer co-operation among ministries and agencies (Agency for Technology, Agency for Scientific research, Agency for Entrepreneurship and FDI)

13. Thank you for your attention!