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TMT Predictions . The Long View

TMT Predictions . The Long View. August 23, 2010. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." . Niels Bohr. 1. All cool technologies don’t succeed. 2. Everybody knows that one horse runs faster than another. But which horse?.

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TMT Predictions . The Long View

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  1. TMT Predictions.The Long View August 23, 2010

  2. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  3. 1. All cool technologies don’t succeed The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  4. 2. Everybody knows that one horse runs faster than another. But which horse? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  5. 3. In other breaking news, the sun will rise in the east The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  6. 4. Great technology…too bad it violates the laws of physics The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  7. How we’re different • Eight predictions • One, five, ten and ‘never’ time frames • Pairs of: • Something important that most people expect to happen…but won’t • Something important that most people don’t expect to happen…but will • And two bonus fact checks (no perpetual motion machines) The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  8. Deloitte’s TMT predictions are now released in 58 countries and expected to launch in 50+ cities in 2010. Predictions was first published in 2001. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  9. Smart phones: how to stay clever in a downturn The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  10. Disrupting the PC: The Rise of the Netbook The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  11. The mobile broadband accident in slow motion: traffic jams on cellular networks The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  12. The Long View from 2010 The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  13. eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  14. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  15. Smaller than a netbook, and bigger than a smartphone – net tablets arrive The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  16. $10 per year for print…but $29.95 for the iPad app? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  17. The Goldilocks Device – additive or substitute? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  18. 3D TV: objects may be further away than they appear The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  19. 3D TV falls flat $3,500.00 The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  20. The dangers of too-literal translation The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  21. Lexicon plus grammar The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  22. Old style text-to-text translation (Babel Fish edition) The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  23. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  24. Natural tech monopolies? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  25. Naturally fragmented markets The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  26. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  27. Wrong question. Will there be a de facto standard mobile OS? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  28. Not if these guys have anything to say about it! The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  29. Will 4G Solve the Congestion Problem? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  30. Let’s talk about innovative disruption The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  31. The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  32. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  33. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  34. Powerful tools The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  35. Unless… The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  36. But child’s play with a 1970s calculator The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  37. Public key cryptography Diffie, Hellman & Merkle (no idea what happened to Merkle) Rivest, Shamir & Adleman (aka RSA) The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  38. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  39. Ugly beast, ain’t it? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  40. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  41. Not that kind of flux capacitor The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  42. Poynting flux vector The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  43. Oh well, at least it’s stylish 60 microwatts @0.7V The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  44. Harvested energy versus required energy Volts x amps = watts To fully charge the battery at left at 0.7V by 7 microwatts would take… 581,428 hours, or 24,226 days, or 66.3 years* The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  45. Taking over the world? The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  46. Doing the charging math • Tesla has a 52.8 kWh battery pack • Most folks have a 30A circuit at 240v • You should only load a circuit to about 80%, or 24A • Charging efficiency is about 80% max • Tesla claims a 3.5 hour charge time • 52,800/(240*24)*0.8 = 11.46 hours The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  47. The mobile internet The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

  48. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - IPAC

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