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The Long View

The Long View. Set America Free 101 [One systems approach]. Institute for the Analysis of Global Security http://www.iags.org. We all agree that it’s time to Set America Free. The ABCs of Setting America Free. F uel diversification R eal world solutions E xisting infrastructure

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The Long View

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  1. The Long View

  2. Set America Free 101[One systems approach] Institute for the Analysis of Global Security http://www.iags.org

  3. We all agree that it’s time toSet America Free

  4. The ABCs of Setting America Free Fuel diversification Real world solutions Existing infrastructure Environmentally sensible choices Domestic resource utilization Optimal energy use Maintenance of the American way of life

  5. Energy Security through fuel choice

  6. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) • Think of them as electric vehicles with an auxiliary fuel tank, or “souped-up hybrids.” • All electric range for a portion of the daily driving cycle. • Night time charging means significantly lower fuel cost. • When the charge is used up, the car automatically. keeps running on the fuel in the fuel tank. • Performance equal to that of current vehicles.

  7. Bottom line: System of Systems • PHEV + FFV fueled with 80% alcohol and 20% gasoline = 400-500 miles per gallon of gasoline! • If by 2025, all cars on the road are hybrids and half are plug-in hybrid vehicles, U.S. oil imports would drop by 8 million barrels per day (mbd). Today, the U.S imports 10 mbd and it is projected to import almost 20 mbd by 2025. If all of these cars were also FFV, U.S. oil imports would drop by as much as 12 mbd. • [ASPO-USA caveat: is 2025 at risk?]

  8. PEAK OIL ERA CLOSING DOWN WORLD SOON TO ENTER FRESH CHAPTER OF “TRANSITION ONE” Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari <www.samsambakhtiari.com>

  9. Five R’s Proposal for “Transition One” • R1. RE-PROGRAM • R2. REDUCE • R3. REUSE • R4. RECYCLE • R5. REWARD • <www.samsambakhtiari.com>

  10. Comments from Sadad al Husseini to Denver World Oil Conference • Oil capacity today is not production limited but rather processing limited (tight refining) • Gradual production increases over the next ten years to be limited by slow refining capacity expansions

  11. Dr. al Husseini, con’t • Given the current outlook in terms of global exploration and development, the rate of investments in the oil value chain, energy prices, and the prevailing legal and political investment climate, I believe oil production will level off at around the 90 - 95 mmbd by 2015.

  12. Dr. Sadad al Husseini, con’t • A rapid global refinery expansion program that eventually matches an increasing oil demand rate of 1.5 - 2.0% per year cannot be achieved before 2015 at the earliest and is highly improbable in any case.

  13. Dr. Sadad al Husseini, con’t • Therefore my answer is: under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a 95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at increasing real oil prices.   

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