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International Conference “Ukraine and Romania: Partners or Competitors?” Odesa , October 14, 2013

International Conference “Ukraine and Romania: Partners or Competitors?” Odesa , October 14, 2013. Can Ukraine and Romania be a tandem in the Transnistrian settlement?  Sergiy Gerasymchuk , Strategic and Security Studies Group Kyiv, Ukraine. Transnistrian conflict. Recent developments.

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International Conference “Ukraine and Romania: Partners or Competitors?” Odesa , October 14, 2013

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  1. International Conference “Ukraine and Romania: Partners or Competitors?”Odesa, October 14, 2013 Can Ukraine and Romania be a tandem in the Transnistrian settlement?  SergiyGerasymchuk, Strategic and Security Studies GroupKyiv, Ukraine

  2. Transnistrian conflict

  3. Recent developments Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship Priority 5+2 rounds November 25-26 will host the next round of negotiations on the Transnistrian settlement.

  4. Ukraine – Romania tandem? Key questions to answer: Pros and cons of Romania’s involvement? What are the obstacles for cooperation? Are the obstacles artificial and the threats exaggerated?

  5. Arguments in favor of involvement Both Romania and Ukraine are not interested in escalation of conflict Both Romania and Ukraine agree upon the necessity to preserve territorial integrity of Moldova Romania being on the path of the reforms can teach a lot

  6. Obstacles: mutually negative stereotypes

  7. Exaggerated threats Transnistria:

  8. Exaggerated threats Ukraine:

  9. Exaggerated threats & speculations Ukraine should react promptly: in case Romania annexes Moldova – Ukraine should annex Transnistria. Eduard Leonov “Svoboda”

  10. Speculations of politicians supplemented by speculations of “civil society” Idealists Pragmatics Flexible Hypocrites Pro-Russian NGOs

  11. Realistic threat and true obstacle

  12. Ukraine – Romania tandem? Added value: YES Obstacles: LOTS OF THEM Invented or realistic obstacles: BOTH Is there any chance for the tandem?

  13. Ukraine – Romania tandem Already exists formally Has good chances from both perspective of liberal institutionalist : the politics of international organizations and Western States of consolidating democracy and good neighborliness imposed rules of cooperation realist perspective: the patterns of cooperation are produced by the balancing behavior (fear of Russia)

  14. Thank you for your attention!Q & A SergiyGerasymshuk Strategic & Security Studies Group Kyiv, Ukraine gerasymchuk@gsbs.org.ua www.gsbs.org.ua

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