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GENERAL INFORMATION

GENERAL INFORMATION.

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GENERAL INFORMATION

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  1. GENERAL INFORMATION The objective is to present the methodology used to forecast the demand of a toll road by using a regional transport model in VISUM taking into consideration variables like toll fare and times in the entire analyzed network to crate a choice model which will be integrated in it. In addition, this model will help the authorities in the decision making of the transport planning. In macro-simulation, the four-step model was considered to create the transport model in VISUM with 42 traffic zones in all over Mexico and the countries in the border. The regional transport model was basically created by integrated both an offer model which is the network and the demand model which is represented by trips between zones.

  2. GENERAL INFORMATION The Tepic – San Blas Highway is located in Nayarit State in the center-west zone of Mexico. This highway is intended to be a toll road along 40.2 kilometers between San Blas and Tepic City. As seen in the illustration, there are two ways in which a traveler can go from Tepic to San Blas. One is through Jacocotlan and EL Llano Town in the south part and the other through Navarrete Town in the north part.

  3. METHODOLOGY

  4. OFFER MODEL • Offer Model (Physical & Operative characteristics) • Network of about 500 km. • Number of Lanes • Status of pavement • Type of Terrain • Traffic Lights • Average speed of operation • Macro-simulation: demand of the Tepic – San Blas highway

  5. DEMAND MODEL • Demand Model • Matrices by segments were created from the origin – destination survey. (matrices were expanded and unseasonality) • Macro-simulation: 42 traffic zones. 5

  6. OD AND PD SURVEY 6

  7. DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL It estimate the quantity of people that change their trip behaviour in response to an action or change of the actual conditions. The simple Logit was used Used variables: Cost and Time. Value of Time by segment To estimate this indicator, utility functions are calibrated which contains the time and cost coeficients of every alternative route. So this way, we can reproduce in an equation the users’ response according to their preferences Ui = cte +  (time i) +  (cost i)

  8. DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL • The results obtained from the utility function and VOT are the followings: • The functions will be used as an input of the logit model which will be used to forecast the trips in the Tepic – San Blas highway. 8

  9. TRANSPORT MODEL • The offer, demand and choice model were integrated in the regional transport model to evaluate impacts at regional level. • Calibration: R2=0.976 (volume), R2=0.98 (speed) 9

  10. RESULTS • The main results obtained of the analysis are the demand and the time saving of the users considering the future network 10

  11. RESULTS • The assigned trips for the project are as shown in the table and the percentage of trips attracted is 40% of the potential trips which would use the highway if this were a road without cost. 11

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