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The African Monsoon Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 08 July 2013. Outline. Current Conditions Precipitation climatology Seven-day precipitation Weekly SST Circulation Madden Julian Oscillation

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The african monsoon week 1 and week 2 outlooks

The African MonsoonWeek-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

Update prepared by

Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Predictions

08 July 2013


Outline
Outline

  • Current Conditions

    • Precipitation climatology

    • Seven-day precipitation

    • Weekly SST

    • Circulation

    • Madden Julian Oscillation

  • NCEP GFS Guidance for week1 and week2

    • NCEP Model outlooks

    • Expert assessments



Past seven day precipitation
Past Seven Day Precipitation

7 day total precipitation

7 day precipitation anomaly

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/weekly_outlook/week1.jpg



Circulation – 850 hPa

21 Jun – 27 Jun, 2013

28 Jun – 04 Jul, 2013


Circulation – 200 hPa

21 Jun – 27 Jun, 2013

28 Jun – 04 Jul, 2013


200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly

  • Green shade indicates areas of upper level divergence and convection or precipitation at surface. Brown contours indicate areas of upper level convergence or subsidence and suppressed precipitation at surface.


Wheeler-Hendon Index - Forecasts

UKMET

NCEP

ECMWF

Statistical


Evolution of MJO-related anomalies

Initial date: 06 July 2013

Red shade indicate areas

of suppressed convection

Blue shade indicate areas

of enhanced convection

1 - 5 days ave. Forecast

6-10 days ave. Forecast

11-15 days ave. Forecast


NCEP GFS 850mb Week 1 forecast


NCEP GFS 200 mbWeek 1 forecast


NCEP GFS 850mb Week 2 forecast


NCEP GFS 200 mbWeek 2 forecast







NCEP GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Ending at 00Z of 15 July 2013

  • The probability of exceedance:

  • Red shade indicates highest chance for precipitation to exceed the pre-defined precipitation threshold

  • Light green shade indicated lowest chance for precipitation to exceed the threshold


NCEP GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Ending at 00Z of 22 July 2013

  • The probability of exceedance:

  • Red shade indicates highest chance for precipitation to exceed the pre-defined precipitation threshold

  • Light green shade indicated lowest chance for precipitation to exceed the threshold


Experimental Week1 and Week 2 Outlook

09 Jul – 15 Jul 2013

16 Jul – 22 Jul 2013


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