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African Monsoon: Recent Evolution & Current Status

This update from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP provides highlights, recent evolution, and current conditions of the African Monsoon. It also includes NCEP GEFS forecasts and summarizes rainfall patterns over the past week, 30 days, 90 days, and 180 days.

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African Monsoon: Recent Evolution & Current Status

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  1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current StatusInclude Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2018 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP GEFS Forecasts • Summary

  3. Highlights:Last 7 Days • Above-average rainfall was observed over the far western West Africa. • Portions of the Gulf of Guinea countries, much of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, Uganda and parts of DRC received below-average rainfall. • Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over parts of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire. In contrast there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall across parts of Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.

  4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past 7 days, weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over parts of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and local areas in Angola. Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Rainfall was also above-average over local areas in Ghana and Benin, southwestern Nigeria, southern Chad, parts of Cameroon, local areas in Congo-Brazzaville and Angola, parts of DRC, and northeastern Ethiopia. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over many parts of Cote d’Ivoire, parts of Burkina Faso and Ghana, portions of Nigeria, western Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, portions of Congo-Brazzaville, parts of CAR and DRC, much of South Sudan and Uganda, parts of Sudan, and portions of Ethiopia.

  5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, much of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, western and southern Niger, portions of Nigeria and Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, portions of Central African Republic, many parts of DRC, northern Angola, many parts of Sudan, local areas in South Sudan, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, and coastal South Africa and southern Madagascar. Below-average rainfall was observed over portions of Nigeria and Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, portions of Central African Republic. Below-average rainfall was also observed over local areas in DRC, western Kenya and Uganda, and southwestern and southern Ethiopia.

  6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, portions of Mauritania, much of Senegal, The Gambia, much of Mali and Guinea-Conakry, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, portions of Nigeria, Chad, many parts of Cameroon, portions of Central African Republic, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC, Sudan, parts of South Sudan, portions of Ethiopia, local areas in southwestern Kenya, and northern Angola received above-average rainfall. Above-average rainfall was also observed along coastal South Africa, and local areas in Mozambique and Madagascar. Rainfall was below-average over parts of Nigeria, local areas in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, local areas in CAR and Chad, central and eastern DRC, southeastern South Sudan, and parts of Ethiopia and Uganda.

  7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over much of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, many parts of Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, portions of Nigeria, Niger, chad, much of CAR, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, many parts of Ethiopia, southern Somalia, much of Kenya and Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, much of Uganda, Equatorial-Guinea, many parts of Congo-Brazzaville, portions of DRC and Angola, parts of Zambia, South Africa, northern Namibia, southern Botswana, much of Mozambique, Malawi, and parts of Zimbabwe and western Madagascar. Below-average rainfall was observed over parts of Nigeria, western Cameroon, much of Gabon, local areas in Congo-Brazzaville, portions of DRC , northwestern Angola, local areas in Ethiopia, local areas in of Botswana and Zimbabwe, and eastern Madagascar.

  8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected locations shows that moderate rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over eastern Guinea-Conakry (bottom left) and northern Ethiopia (top right). In contrast, seasonal total rainfall remained below-average over northeastern DRC (bottom right).

  9. Atmospheric Circulation:Last 7 Days A broad area of anomalous westerly flow prevailed across the Gulf of Guinea countries.

  10. NCEP GEFS Model ForecastsNon-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: 25 Sep – 1 Oct, 2018 Week-2: Valid 2 – 8 Oct, 2018 For week-1 (left panel) and week-2 (right panel), there is an increased chance for weekly rainfall totals to exceed 50 mm over portions of the Gulf of Guinea countries, parts of DRC, and coastal Kenya and Tanzania.

  11. Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 25 Sep – 1 Oct, 2018 • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over parts of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, and Ghana: A broad area of anomalous lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall across parts of Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda: An area of anomalous lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over parts of eastern Tanzania, southern Kenya and Somalia: Stronger than normal onshore flow and warmer than average SSTs are expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

  12. Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks 2 – 8 October, 2018 • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall across parts of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo: A broad area of anomalous lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall across parts of Southern DRC and northern Angola: An area of anomalous lower-level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall across parts of Southern Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda: An area of anomalous lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall across parts of northern Somalia, and eastern Ethiopia: An area of anomalous lower-level onshore flow and anomalous upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

  13. Summary • During the past 7 days, weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over parts of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and local areas in Angola. Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Rainfall was also above-average over local areas in Ghana and Benin, southwestern Nigeria, southern Chad, parts of Cameroon, local areas in Congo-Brazzaville and Angola, parts of DRC, and northeastern Ethiopia. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over many parts of Cote d’Ivoire, parts of Burkina Faso and Ghana, portions of Nigeria, western Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, portions of Congo-Brazzaville, parts of CAR and DRC, much of South Sudan and Uganda, parts of Sudan, and portions of Ethiopia. • During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, much of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, western and southern Niger, portions of Nigeria and Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, portions of Central African Republic, many parts of DRC, northern Angola, many parts of Sudan, local areas in South Sudan, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, and coastal South Africa and southern Madagascar. Below-average rainfall was observed over portions of Nigeria and Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, portions of Central African Republic. Below-average rainfall was also observed over local areas in DRC, western Kenya and Uganda, and southwestern and southern Ethiopia. • During the past 90 days, portions of Mauritania, much of Senegal, The Gambia, much of Mali and Guinea-Conakry, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, portions of Nigeria, Chad, many parts of Cameroon, portions of Central African Republic, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC, Sudan, parts of South Sudan, portions of Ethiopia, local areas in southwestern Kenya, and northern Angola received above-average rainfall. Above-average rainfall was also observed along coastal South Africa, and local areas in Mozambique and Madagascar. Rainfall was below-average over parts of Nigeria, local areas in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, local areas in CAR and Chad, central and eastern DRC, southeastern South Sudan, and parts of Ethiopia and Uganda. • Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over parts of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire. In contrast there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall across parts of Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.

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