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Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

CLIMATE OUTLOOK AMT 1 October 2009. Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation. Nino areas. La Nina (2007/08). El Nino (2006/07). H. L. Reen. Reen. Reen. L. L. L. H. H. H. H. L. L. H. H. Outlook for rest of Season. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4.

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Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

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  1. CLIMATE OUTLOOK AMT 1 October 2009 Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

  2. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation

  3. Nino areas

  4. La Nina (2007/08)

  5. El Nino (2006/07)

  6. H L

  7. Reen Reen Reen L L L H H H

  8. H L L H H

  9. Outlook for rest of Season

  10. Nino 3.4

  11. Nino 3.4

  12. Nino 3.4

  13. Nino 3.4

  14. El Nino

  15. El Nino La Nina

  16. El Nino La Nina

  17. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  18. Outlook 2008/09 (3 October 2008 AMT – last year) Wet Dry Wet Dry Non event

  19. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  20. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina Cyclone activity

  21. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  22. Sea surface temperatures

  23. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  24. Tropical Cyclone – Top view L H H

  25. 1982/83 1982/83

  26. 1991/92 1991/92

  27. 2006/07 2006/07

  28. 1997/98

  29. Probability (%) for receiving at least median rainfall

  30. September to November – El Nino developing

  31. December to February – El Nino

  32. December tot February – La Nina (2007/08 and 2008/09)

  33. Probability for at least 20mm of rain (in total per) 10 day period Long term average vs 2009/10

  34. Bredasdorp: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  35. Humansdorp: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  36. Graaff-Reinet: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  37. Delmas: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  38. Delareyville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Average 2009/10

  39. Upington: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  40. Bothaville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  41. Grootfontein Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Average 2009/10

  42. Otjiwarongo Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Gemiddeld 2009/10

  43. Maize production for 2009/10

  44. Indicators maize production 1. Soil moisture – favourable to ensure good plantings conditions if 20-50mm rain occur before planting date 2. Rain in winter and early spring enabled most farmers to do initial soil preparation very early – ensure that rainfall in pre-plant period can be stored 3. Favourable outlook for 50m to 100mm rain still to come in October/November

  45. Indicators maize production… 4. El Nino effect – dry/hot conditions November-January 5. Western production areas (Free State and Northwest) will most probably be hardest hit 6. Eastern production areas – near normal 7. Tropical cyclones/depressions in February can cause problems 8. Very small reduction in area expected in spite of low prices

  46. Indicators maize production …. 9. RSA maize crop: 9.1 Irrigation 220 000 -250 000 ha under irrigation 12t/ha = 2.5-3.0 million ton 9.2 Rainfed 2.0 million ha 2.5 t/ha = 5 million ton 9.3 Total (worst case scenario) = 7.5 to 8 million tons

  47. Indicators maize production …. 11. Frost - Very high probability for frost damage before 10 April and even before 31 March 2010 – El Nino 12. Price risk more important than production risk – long term average yields not sufficient at current prices to cover input cost

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