Climate outlook for 2010/11
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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. Maunder Minimum. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Earth. Sun. Magnetic fields. Geomagnetic activity from the sun.

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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

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Climate outlook for 2010/11

22 September 2010

Johan van den Berg

Santam Agriculture


Maunder Minimum


Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Earth

Sun

Magnetic fields


Geomagnetic activity from the sun


Other contributing factors to global and South African weather


Tropical cyclones as part of climate change and climate variability

  • Cyclones develop over water with high energy (warm)

  • If water of oceans are warmer then higher frequency of cyclones


Tropical cyclone

L

H

H


Tropical cyclone

H

L

Cyclone

Water = 18-28oC

Water = 10-12oC


The role of ENSO* on global climate

*ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation


H

L


Nino 3.4


ENSO* and the RSA maize crop

* El Nino Southern Oscillation


?


  • Summary

  • El Nino of 2009/10 – abnormal wet

  • La Nina development for 2010/11 – wet conditions for Summer Rainfall Area and dry for Western Cape

  • Maize crop – favourable production conditions


Thanks


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