Climate outlook for 2010/11
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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. Maunder Minimum. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Earth. Sun. Magnetic fields. Geomagnetic activity from the sun.

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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

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Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Climate outlook for 2010/11

22 September 2010

Johan van den Berg

Santam Agriculture


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Maunder Minimum


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Earth

Sun

Magnetic fields


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Geomagnetic activity from the sun


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Other contributing factors to global and South African weather


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Tropical cyclones as part of climate change and climate variability

  • Cyclones develop over water with high energy (warm)

  • If water of oceans are warmer then higher frequency of cyclones


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Tropical cyclone

L

H

H


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Tropical cyclone

H

L

Cyclone

Water = 18-28oC

Water = 10-12oC


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

The role of ENSO* on global climate

*ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

H

L


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Nino 3.4


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

ENSO* and the RSA maize crop

* El Nino Southern Oscillation


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

?


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

  • Summary

  • El Nino of 2009/10 – abnormal wet

  • La Nina development for 2010/11 – wet conditions for Summer Rainfall Area and dry for Western Cape

  • Maize crop – favourable production conditions


Climate outlook for 2010 11 22 september 2010 johan van den berg santam agriculture

Thanks


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