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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. Maunder Minimum. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Earth. Sun. Magnetic fields. Geomagnetic activity from the sun.

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Climate outlook for 2010/11

22 September 2010

Johan van den Berg

Santam Agriculture



Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Maunder minimum

Little ice age


Earth

Sun

Magnetic fields




Tropical cyclones as part of climate change and climate variability

  • Cyclones develop over water with high energy (warm)

  • If water of oceans are warmer then higher frequency of cyclones


Tropical cyclone variability

L

H

H


Tropical cyclone variability

H

L

Cyclone

Water = 18-28oC

Water = 10-12oC


The role of ENSO* on global climate variability

*ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation


H variability

L


Nino 3.4 variability


ENSO* and the RSA maize crop variability

* El Nino Southern Oscillation


? variability


  • Summary variability

  • El Nino of 2009/10 – abnormal wet

  • La Nina development for 2010/11 – wet conditions for Summer Rainfall Area and dry for Western Cape

  • Maize crop – favourable production conditions


Thanks variability


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