Epidemiologic transition changes of fertility and mortality with modernization
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Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization. Abdel Omran The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538. Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease. Charles Darwin Evolution of Species.

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Epidemiologic transition changes of fertility and mortality with modernization

Epidemiologic Transition:Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization

Abdel Omran

The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538


Abdel Omran

Evolution of Disease

Charles Darwin

Evolution of Species


The new ncd epidemiology and prevention
The New NCD Epidemiology and Prevention

  • Systems approach

  • Disease Monitoring

  • Telecommunications Backbone

  • Deming approaches to Prevention


Epidemiology
Epidemiology

  • Psychiatric Epidemiologists

  • Diabetes Epidemiology

  • Cardiovascular Epidemiology

  • Cancer Epidemiology

  • Infectious Disease Epidemiology



Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death

Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death.

Mortality has no fixed upper limits. Thus if fertility approached its upper maximum, depopulation would still occur.


During the epidemiologic transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases...


Age of pestilence and famine

Age of Pestilence and Famine occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases...

Characterized by high mortality rates, wide swings in the mortality rate, little population growth and very low life expectancy


Age of receding pandemics

Age of Receding Pandemics occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases...

Epidemics become less frequent, infectious diseases in general become less frequent, a slow rise in degenerative diseases begin to appear


The shifts in disease patterns in the 19th century were primarily related to changing SES.With the 20th Century more related with disease control activities independent of SES:e.g. Mexico, China


Stages of the epidemiologic transition
Stages of the Epidemiologic Transition primarily related to changing SES.

  • Pestilence and Famine

  • Receding Pandemics

  • Degenerative and man-made diseases


Epidemiologic transition in developing and developed countries
Epidemiologic Transition in primarily related to changing SES.Developing and DevelopedCountries


14 years primarily related to changing SES.

35 years


Increasing Life Expectancy and primarily related to changing SES.

Causes of Death

100

Other

80

60

Violence

CHD

40

CA

20

Infection

0

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

Population Life Expectancy


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