epidemiologic transition changes of fertility and mortality with modernization
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Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization. Abdel Omran The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538. Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease. Charles Darwin Evolution of Species.

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epidemiologic transition changes of fertility and mortality with modernization

Epidemiologic Transition:Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization

Abdel Omran

The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538

slide2

Abdel Omran

Evolution of Disease

Charles Darwin

Evolution of Species

the new ncd epidemiology and prevention
The New NCD Epidemiology and Prevention
  • Systems approach
  • Disease Monitoring
  • Telecommunications Backbone
  • Deming approaches to Prevention
epidemiology
Epidemiology
  • Psychiatric Epidemiologists
  • Diabetes Epidemiology
  • Cardiovascular Epidemiology
  • Cancer Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Epidemiology
mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death

Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death.

Mortality has no fixed upper limits. Thus if fertility approached its upper maximum, depopulation would still occur.

slide8

During the epidemiologic transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases...

age of pestilence and famine

Age of Pestilence and Famine

Characterized by high mortality rates, wide swings in the mortality rate, little population growth and very low life expectancy

age of receding pandemics

Age of Receding Pandemics

Epidemics become less frequent, infectious diseases in general become less frequent, a slow rise in degenerative diseases begin to appear

slide11

The shifts in disease patterns in the 19th century were primarily related to changing SES.With the 20th Century more related with disease control activities independent of SES:e.g. Mexico, China

stages of the epidemiologic transition
Stages of the Epidemiologic Transition
  • Pestilence and Famine
  • Receding Pandemics
  • Degenerative and man-made diseases
slide21

14 years

35 years

slide26

Increasing Life Expectancy and

Causes of Death

100

Other

80

60

Violence

CHD

40

CA

20

Infection

0

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

Population Life Expectancy

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