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A CLIMATE STUDY of ABOVE and BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG with LONGEVITY (Is there a Pattern?)

A CLIMATE STUDY of ABOVE and BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG with LONGEVITY (Is there a Pattern?). Matthew Masek (WFO North Platte, NE). OUTLINE. Data Set Above and Below Normal Average Temps A look at the numbers Patterns/Signals?? Consecutive Days Above/Below Normal Average Temps

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A CLIMATE STUDY of ABOVE and BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG with LONGEVITY (Is there a Pattern?)

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  1. A CLIMATE STUDY of ABOVE and BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURESALONG with LONGEVITY(Is there a Pattern?) Matthew Masek (WFO North Platte, NE)

  2. OUTLINE • Data Set • Above and Below Normal Average Temps • A look at the numbers • Patterns/Signals?? • Consecutive Days • Above/Below Normal Average Temps • 20+ Days, 25+ Days, 30+ Days • By Years (pattern/signal??) • By Time of Year - Months (pattern/signal??) • Final Thoughts

  3. DATA SET • North Platte (LBF) – (used exclusively) • Existing Data Set • Sept 18, 1874 to Present • Used • Jan 1, 1875 to June 30, 2006* (131.5 Years) • Ignored Site and Equipment Changes • Allowed Average T to have .5

  4. DATA SET • 30 Year Normal for Average T • 1970 to 2000 • Assumed representative • 1870s & 2000s (decades) • Estimated based on partial record

  5. INSIDE THE NUMBERS • Total Days in the Study • 48,028 Days • Average T Above Normal • 25,650 Days (53.4%) • Average T Below Normal • 21,381 Days (44.5%) • Average T Equal Normal • 997 Days (2.1%)

  6. INSIDE THE NUMBERS • Difference between Above and Below • 4,269 Days • Over 11.5 Years • Remember ONLY 131.5 Years in Set That’s 9% more Above Days than Below Days

  7. How Can That Be? • Departure of Average T from Normal CAN be More Significant when Below than Above • February 11, 1899 • High -13, Low -29 • Average T = -21 degrees (normal 28 degrees) • Departure from normal49 degrees • December 23, 1964 • High 74, Low 34 • Average T = 54 degrees (normal 24 degrees) • Departure from normal30 Degrees • 279 days with departure below normal 30+˚

  8. 5 years with most 1978 - 222 (60.8%) 1996 - 216 1967 - 212 1993 - 211 1951 - 206 5 years with least 1934 - 86 (23.5%) 1931 - 107 1900 - 108 1939 - 109 1938 - 110 5 years with most 1934 - 276 (75.6%) 1931 - 253 1933 - 251 1938 - 250 1939 - 248 (tied with 1900) 5 years with least 1978 - 131 (35.8%) 1996 - 139 1967 - 141 1993 - 144 1951 - 148 Below Ave TAbove Ave T

  9. Trends • 30s were definitely HOT • Fairly constant last 10 years • Signs of Global Warming (not really) • Remember this is not looking at magnitude just number of days

  10. Consecutive Days • Allowed for crossover Jan 1 • Based on above or below the normal average T – NOT based on Magnitude • 2 degrees or 30 degrees above (don’t care) • Winter 2005-2006 set new record for consecutive days with average temp above normal (49 days) • 20+ days, 25+ days, 30+ days (trend???)

  11. Time of Year • Winter months are when long consecutive streaks have been set • For 30+ day events - all but one during the months from November-April • Ended July 14 1933 (31 Days)

  12. Final Thoughts • Wish there was 200 - 300 Years of Data • Limited Patterns/Signals • Causes - Unknown • History Repeats – • Doubt a 30+ days event of below normal ave T • 20-29 days event possible • Next • Look at magnitude overall and during streaks • Average High and Average Low • Add more sites to see if pattern is widespread

  13. THE END ????

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