Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials

1. Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division Jdiskey@publishers.org www.aapschool.org November 2009

2. 2009: The Good, Bad & Ugly • Recession & Recovery? • State policy impacts • Stimulus Spending • Obama Administration Association of American Publishers (AAP)

3. 2010: The Year Ahead • State Policy Outlook • National/Federal Outlook • Digital transitions Association of American Publishers (AAP)

4. K-12 by the Numbers • U.S. K-12 school enrollment: 55 million • Adoption states = 20 (5,400 school districts) • Non-adoption states = 30 (10,000 districts) • Total K-12 expenditures = $520 billion annually • K-12 instructional materials market: $7B to $8B • K-12 “Core” IM market = $4 billion Association of American Publishers (AAP)

5. K-12 Expenditures Source: Census Bureau, NCES, Stifel Nicolaus Association of American Publishers (AAP)

6. K-12 Net Sales Growth 1989-2008 Association of American Publishers (AAP)

7. 2009 K-12 Net Sales YTD (thru August) • Basal Adoption Net Sales: -35.2% • Basal Non-Adoption Net Sales: -15.6% • Total Basal:-26.1% • Total Supplemental Net Sales: 2.2% • Total Basal & Supplemental Net Sales: -21.4% YTD Association of American Publishers (AAP)

8. 2009 K-12 IM Market in Review The worst U.S. economy in 70 years led to: • Postponement of California’s K-8 reading adoption & second-year purchase of math. Also, disruption of the state’s adoption process. • Incomplete implementation of Florida’s language arts/literature adoption. • Adoption postponements in Kentucky, Oregon, North Carolina, New Mexico. • Significant funding cut in Illinois. • Consideration of “open source” (OER) initiatives in several key states. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

9. California Meltdown • Reading adoption not fully implemented. • Two-year purchase requirement eliminated. • IM funding is “flexible” as long as Williams sufficiency requirements are met. • IM adoption schedule is frozen through 2013-14 year. • Curriculum Commission unfunded. • Governor new “digital initiative” (i.e. OER) further clouds the outlook on California. California is, in effect, an “open territory” with limited funding. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

10. A Look at 2010 • 2010 adoption calendar looks better. • Large adoptions in Texas and Florida are on track. • Uncertainty over state revenue. • Challenges at the Federal/National levels. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

11. State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECTS Alabama: K-12 Math, Health, PE, Technology, Career/Technical Arkansas: K-12 Fine Arts, Special Education, Agriculture, Family and Consumer Education 9-12 Career and Technology Education California: Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008 Florida: K-12 Math Georgia: K-12 Foreign Language, ESOL, 9-12 English Language Arts Idaho: Humanities: Interdisciplinary, World Languages, Dance, Music, Drama/Theater, Art, PE, Health, Drivers Education, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency Indiana: 1-12 Math Kentucky: P-12 Math Louisiana: Agriscience, Business Education, Marketing, Family & Consumer Science, Health Occupations, Technology Education, Trade & Industrial Mississippi: High School Redesign Courses Nevada: K-12 Math, Secondary Language Arts, Secondary Health New Mexico: K-8 Language Arts/Reading, CORE Reading Intervention, Modern, Classical and Native Languages Association of American Publishers (AAP)

12. State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECT North Carolina: 6-8 Math, Foreign Languages, Sign Language, Spanish for Native Speakers, Agriculture Education, Exploring Biotechnology, K-8 ESL Oklahoma: K-12 + AP Math Oregon: 9-12 Science, Math South Carolina: K-5 Language Arts, 9-12 Math, Science, Social Studies,PE, Graphic Communication, Information Technology, Marketing Management, Business Management and Administration, AP Computer Science Tennessee: English Language Arts, ESL, Communication, Foreign Languages Texas: K-1 ELA/SLA and Reading, 2-5 Reading, 6-8 Reading (elective), 6-12 Literature, 6 Span.Literature, ESOL I and II, 9-12 English Language Proficiency Standards, Teachers Editions AP English Language, English Literature, IB Language Studies, Standard and Higher Level Utah: K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring   Virginia: History and Social Sciences  West Virginia: K-12 Math, Vocational Agriculture, Family & Consumer Science Association of American Publishers (AAP)

13. State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECTS Alabama K-12 Social Studies Arkansas K-12 English Language Arts California Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008 Florida K-12 Science Georgia K-12 Social Studies, Fine Arts, Health & PE Idaho Social Studies, Economics, Character Education, Psychology, Sociology, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency Indiana 1-12 Science, Health Kentucky P-12 Practical Living and Vocation Studies  Louisiana K-12 Science, Computer Education, CTE Journey to Careers  Mississippi Literature, Reading Nevada Elementary Language Arts, Secondary Language Arts and Health New Mexico Social Studies, Library/Reference, NM and Native American Art and Culture North Carolina NO ADOPTION/EVALUATION PROCESS Association of American Publishers (AAP)

14. State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECTS Oklahoma K-12 + AP: Language Arts Oregon K-12 Second Languages South Carolina K-5 Health and Safety, 9-12 Math, Social Studies, K-12 Self-Contained Educable Mentally Disabled, Business Management and Administration, Information Technology, Human Services, Health Science, Industrial Systems and Technology Tennessee Math, Computer Science Texas PreK Systems, 2-8 ELA, 2-6 SLA, 6-8 Speech, English I-IV, K-8 ESL, 1-2 Spell (consumable), 3-6 Spell (nonconsumable), 1-3 Handwriting, 6-8 Speech Utah K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring Virginia Math West Virginia K-12 Social Studies Association of American Publishers (AAP)

15. What’s Ahead for State Budgets? • State tax collections for the 2Q ‘09 showed a record drop of –16.6%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau) • 48 states face budget shortfalls. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities) • State budget gaps total 24% as a share of total state budgets. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities) Association of American Publishers (AAP)

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18. Use of Federal Stimulus Fundsin the K-12 Classroom • 52% Save teaching positions. • 28% Professional development. • 23% Classroom technology. • 17% Classroom equipment. • 12% School repairs. • 10% Software/machines. • 10% Textbooks. (Source: AASA) Association of American Publishers (AAP)

19. Additional Challenges for 2010 • New administration in Washington. • OER – “open educational resources.” • Transition to digital materials. • Piracy. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

20. Federal/National Challenges • Common national standards. • No Child Left Behind reauthorization. • Race to the Top innovation fund. • Obama Administration themes. • Influence of national foundations. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

21. OER Defined • Open educational resources (OER) are instructional materials freely available for use, remixing and distribution. • The term “OER" was first adopted at UNESCO’s 2002 Forum on the Impact of Open Courseware for Higher Education in Developing Countries (funded by the Hewlett Foundation). Association of American Publishers (AAP)

22. OER Providers & Proponents • www.curriki.org • www.ck12.org • www.merlot.org • www.opened.creativecommons.org • www.oercommons.org Association of American Publishers (AAP)

23. OER Claims & Characteristics • Free! • Usually digital/electronic. Belief that digital should be “free.” • Open license allows for collaboration and remixing. • Easy to update. • Foundation funding and now government funding. • Adoption of OER could save states and districts money (maybe, but at what cost?). Association of American Publishers (AAP)

24. OER Drawbacks • Are the OER materials developed by trusted, known, expert sources? • Are the materials accurate? • Are the materials aligned with state standards? • Are they based on current research? • Can OER provide a comprehensive curriculum with content, scope & sequence? • Are the materials really “open” or are the collaborations a form of collective piracy? • Do schools have the technology infrastructure to go fully digital? • What about the MSST? Association of American Publishers (AAP)

25. Current OER Initiatives • Schwarzenegger's “digital” initiative. • Texas (H.B. 2488) “Hochberg Bill.” • Virginia “flexbook” initiative. • Washington state/Gates Foundation initiative. • Federal student loan bill (Sec. 505). Association of American Publishers (AAP)

26. OER & Digital Implicationsfor Manufacturers • Further erosion of traditional K-12 print market. • Implications for state funding and adoptions. • MSST issues. • But, print-on-demand opportunities will likely increase. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

27. Wrap Up Association of American Publishers (AAP)

28. Contact Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division Jdiskey@publishers.org www.aapschool.org Association of American Publishers (AAP)