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Context – Insecurity and Urgency

Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge Opportunities : Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change Andy White, Coordinator Rights and Resources Initiative ECOSOC, 17 April 2008. Context – Insecurity and Urgency.

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Context – Insecurity and Urgency

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  1. Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge Opportunities:Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change Andy White, CoordinatorRights and Resources Initiative ECOSOC, 17 April 2008

  2. Context – Insecurity and Urgency • MDGs overtaken by politically pressing issues of insecurity – energy, national, environmental (climate and water) • Problems behind MDG’s are same as those behind insecurity – political marginalization, poverty, inequity, lack of respect for human rights and democratic processes • Challenges converging on 30% of earth’s surface that is considered “forest” – poor and poorly governed • Rights and democratic governance – not only moral imperative but social and economic, and ecological imperative • Private capital moving much faster than we can

  3. Huge Global Risks – Undoing of Governments and “Development” • Early stages of biggest economic/political/climatic transition in modern history • Risk of: • Expanded civil conflicts, • Further social and political marginalization of rural and forest peoples • Continued deforestation and increased carbon emission • Undoing of governments and “development” • Haven’t dealt with past, not yet equipped for the future.

  4. Outline: Vulnerability and Urgency • Old problems:limited rights, poverty, conflict • New, global, challenges:market/political shifts, energy, climate change • Huge opportunities: local organizations, new markets and technologies • Urgent steps

  5. Old Problems (1) : Lack of Human, Civil Rights and Poor Governance • At least 15 million people lack citizenship recognition – including all hill tribes of SE Asia, most Pygmies of Congo Basin • Women disproportionately disadvantaged, politically, legally, economically and culturally – not a “boutique” or “luxury” issue • Corruption, limited rule of law, limited accountability, judicial redress • Lack of respect for property rights; governments claim 75% of world’s forests – illegal conservation, dispossession and refugees • Lack of basic public services Forest areas: about 30% of global land area, over 1 billion of world’s poorest, socially and politically disenfranchised

  6. Governance: ITTO Countries Doing Worse – Questioning Models The ITTO producer countries score lower in all categories, and for the 3 represented above, this difference is statistically significant (.05 double tailed t-test). This tends to show that it is not merely the presence of forest, but of a large export-oriented forest industry that is correlated to poor governance performances.

  7. Old Problems (2): Extensive Poverty; Slow/No Economic Growth • Extensive, chronic, poverty in forest areas (highest “rates”) • ½ of “Bottom Billion” – 58 countries “falling apart and falling behind” (Collier ’07) • “growth” located in urban, coastal areas • “forest rich” countries doing significantly worse • ITTO producer countries doing even worse – trade NOT the answer

  8. In the past twenty years 30 countries in the tropical regions of the world have experienced significant conflict between armed groups in forest areas. Source: D.Kaimowitz ETFRN NEWS 43/44 Old Problems (3) Conflict and Contestation over Resources

  9. Forests in Conflict Zones since 1990 • 20% of forest in the tropics experienced violent conflict, spread over 29 countries; • Most threatened forest in Africa, most of 127 million forest dwellers potentially affected live in Asia. • Conflict driven by “land” in 40% of cases, key predictor of return • Good news, armed conflicts are declining • Bad news, human rights abuses are continuing at same rates • Unreported news: active tenure contestation remains the norm Source: Capistrano, de Koning, Yasmi (CIFOR, RECOFTC), 2007

  10. New Challenges (1): Fundamental Market Shifts: Walls of Capital and Speculation • BRICS driving Global Growth: • BRICs overtake the G6 by 2040 • $55 trillion global GDP today, near $80 trillion by 2020, $150 trillion by 2100? • the wall of capital • Growth in demand for commodities • Food to double by 2020 • Meat by 50% • Price of sugar doubled, oil, steel and gold tripled and copper quadrupled since 2001 • the wall of speculation • All colliding with “poor and poorly governed” – a “clash of the commons” Global Economics: Goldman Sachs. 2003

  11. New Challenges (2) Convergence of Food, Fuel, Fiber – Land Pressure, Food Riots Source: Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World Markets • Food, fuel and fiber all competing for the same, declining amount of land about 400 million available (IIASA 2007), all driving food insecurity, riots, conflicts

  12. Political/Market Concern about Energy Fuelling Speculation and Subsidies Projected world biofuels consumption(MToe) • By 2030 Demand for energy  50% • Biofuels – increase in investment, consumption and area • Brazil – 4.5 million ha by 2016, • Oil palm in tropics – up by 5.5 million ha in last 10 years • 280 million ha for biofuels alone - 2020 Source: OECD/IEA (2006). Global Biofuels Financings: Q1/05-Q1/07

  13. New Challenge (3) Climate Change • Already happening • Unknown impacts and unintended consequences from intervention • “the social justice issue of our generation” (unfairness in who caused it, who is hurt by it, requires fundamental shifts in “elite” consumption)

  14. Indirect Effects, Social Concerns • Adaptation • Mitigation • Continued elite capture/limited effectiveness of aid interventions – exacerbating tensions 2. Feeds speculation, subsidies and “last great global land grab” 3. Continued unfairness, attempts at social engineering, the “new Washington Consensus” 3. Who sets the rules?

  15. Source: Economist; iAfrica Huge Opportunities: Where’s the Hope? • People and their organizations • entrepreneurship • holding us all accountable • Markets • New opportunities for the poor, shifts and domestic demand 3. Empowering technologies • enabling organization, land rights and pro-poor enterprises

  16. What to Do? – Urgent Next Steps • Recognize the urgency • Rethink, our approaches • Reorganize, our institutions BAU will not deal with the “speed and violence” of social and political upheaval

  17. What to Do? – Urgent Next Steps 2. Secure their rights (property, human, gender, civil) • Dramatically ramp up land mapping, negotiation, delimitation • Focus on conflict prone and post-conflict countries • Ensure that REDD and Conflict mechanisms are pro-poor and pro-rights * The least cost approach to REDD?

  18. What to Do? Urgent Steps 3. Support theirorganizations, their voice, and their enterprises • Encouraging small-scale enterprises (policy and regulatory reforms) • Prioritizing women’s rights and groups • Support community exchanges and capacity building * Rethink and refocus development models and approaches

  19. Challenges never so daunting, opportunity for a dramatic difference never so great “Speed and Violence” We must do things differently www.rightsandresources.org

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