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Is The Us Economy Recovering?

Is The Us Economy Recovering?. Angela Sordello Christopher Friedberg Can Shen Hui Lai Hui Wang Fang Guo . Outline. Introduction Original Data Pre Whitening Comparison of Models Modeling Model Validation

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Is The Us Economy Recovering?

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  1. Is The Us Economy Recovering? Angela Sordello Christopher Friedberg Can Shen Hui Lai Hui Wang Fang Guo

  2. Outline Introduction Original Data Pre Whitening Comparison of Models Modeling Model Validation Forecasting Conclusion

  3. Gross Private Domestic Investment • Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) is a measure of fixed investment and the change in private inventories • Used as an indicator to assess the state of the economy • We wanted to see if the United States economy is still in a recession

  4. Original Data St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank The data is quarterly and has been seasonally adjusted GDPI is measured in billions of US dollars

  5. Original data Correlogram of original data Histogram of original data

  6. Unit root test

  7. Pre Whitening: logarithmic Transformation

  8. Pre Whitening Continued :First difference Line graph Histogram

  9. Pre Whitening Continued :First difference

  10. Comparisons of models

  11. Modeling Regression with AR(1) MA(1) MA(4)

  12. Modeling Correlogram Correlogram with residuals squared

  13. Modeling

  14. Modeling

  15. Modeling Correlogram with residuals squared Correlogram

  16. Modeling

  17. Model Validation

  18. Forecasting

  19. The GDPI is increasing. It is signaling the US economy is recovering.

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