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PNACO Scenario

PNACO Scenario. RAPID. January 29, 2008. PNACO Scenario Outline. An analyst needs to find out if any Iranian nano-tech companies have realistic capabilities to manufacture Air-Borne Toxins (ABT). RAPID creates initial probes for REALISM.

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PNACO Scenario

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  1. PNACO Scenario RAPID January 29, 2008

  2. PNACO Scenario Outline An analyst needs to find out if any Iranian nano-tech companies have realistic capabilities to manufacture Air-Borne Toxins (ABT). RAPID creates initial probes for REALISM. From the evidence supplied by REALISM, RAPID identifies a company that we call PNACO that manufactures Nano-Diamond Powder-based lubricants. RAPID instantiates two potential pathways for producing that product: Detonation Synthesis and High-Energy Ball Milling. High Energy Ball Milling is also found in a pathway leading to the production of Air-Borne Toxins. The uncertainty regarding the production of ABT by PNACO is deemed critical by RAPID and it creates several probes for additional information, including one that requests the particle size of the Nano-Diamond Powder produced by PNACO. REALISM finds evidence that the particle size is 5nm indicating the Detonation Synthesis process which significantly lowers the probability of the pathway leading to the production of Air-Borne Toxins by PNACO.

  3. Edit Knowledge Base RAPID Workflow Evidence Propagation Identification of Critical Uncertainties Co-reference Resolution Ontology Probes Evidence Integration Probe Creation and Prioritization Evidence Beliefs Probe Execution State of the World Search and Browse Monitor and Control

  4. Ontology Entity Company Probe Product Evidence Process Pathway RAPID’s general knowledge about the world’s entities, their structure and relationships is encoded in RAPID’s ontology

  5. Company Ontology • Company • Unique ID • Name * (can have several values) • Business Activity * (manufacturing or trading or both) • Product * • Process * • Pathway * • Address * • Phone * • People * • Origin This is a fragment used in the PNACO scenario

  6. Product Ontology Nano Products Nano Biological Agents Nano Coatings Nano Materials Form: powder or suspension Particle size: fine or coarse Nano Lubricants Nano Polymers Air-Born Toxins (ABT) Nano Crystals Nano Metals Nano Diamonds Nano Silver Nano-Oil Nano-Diamond Powder (NDP) Nano Copper Large Porous Nano Particles (LPNP) Nano Aluminum

  7. Pulse Wire Evaporation (PWE) Process and Pathway Ontology Nano Manufacturing Process Nano Manufacturing Pathway High-Energy Ball Milling (HEBM) Detonation Synthesis (DetSyn) PWY-ABT Process1: HEBM Product1: LPNP Process2: Coat+Toxin Product2: ABT PWY-nOil-c Process1: HEBM Product1: NDP coarse Process2: Mix+Oil Product2: Nano-Oil PWY-nOil-f Process1: DetSyn Product1: NDP fine Process2: Mix+Oil Product2: Nano-Oil PWY-nMetal Process1: PWE Product1: Nano-Metal

  8. Nano Manufacturing Processes Detonation nanodiamond manufacturing equipment at Sinta Ltd, Ukraine Metal Nano Powder Fabrication System using Pulse Wire Evaporation (PWE) machine (Korea)

  9. Initial Probes Find Iranian Companies which produce Air-Borne Toxins Probe1 SELECT ID, name, bus-activity, product FROM company WHERE product ≈ ABT and origin = Iran and bus-activity = manufacturing Find Iranian manufacturing companies whose description contains the word “nano”; report their names, products and business activities Probe2 SELECT ID, name, bus-activity, product FROM company WHERE origin = Iran and description CONTAINS “nano” and bus-activity = manufacturing

  10. Example of source information

  11. Evidence provided by REALISM REALISM communicates evidence using IKL (Interoperable Knowledge Language) extension of ISO Common Logic (= ev1 (that (company C1))) (confidence ev1 1.0) (= ev2 (that (name C1 “Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry”))) (confidence ev2 1.0) (= ev3 (that (bus-activity C1 “Manufacturing”))) (confidence ev3 1.0) (= ev4 (that (product C1 “Copper Metal Powder”))) (confidence ev4 1.0) …… RAPID repackages this evidence into the evidence table

  12. Evidence Table 1

  13. Evidence Integration 1 RAPID creates instances of companies and products mentioned in the evidence table • Company c1 • 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • 1.0 Product p1 • Product p1 Copper Metal Powder • Category Nano-Copper • Form Powder • Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Company c2 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • .96 Product p2, p3 • Product p3 Lubricant • Category Lubricant • Company c3 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • .92 Product p4, p5 • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Product p5 Nano Technology Products • Category Nano-Products • Company c4 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya. • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • .94 Product p6 • Product p6 Inorganic Salt • Category Nano Crystals • Product p7 Petrochemistry • Category Products • Company c5 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading • .96 Product p7, p8 • Product p8 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil

  14. Co-reference Resolution 1 .5 Nano Products Company c2 “Pishgaman Nano” .5 .6 .5 .7 .6 Company c4 “Pishgaman Nano Aria.” Nano Lubricants Although the names are very similar, co-references are ≤ .75 Company c3 “Pishgaman Nano Arya” Company c5 “Pishgaman Nano Arya” Products p3 p7 p5 Nano-Oil c5 c2 c3 Nano-Diamond Powder (NDP) p8 p2 p4 Product p2 subsumes p3, p4 subsumes p5 and p8 subsumes p7

  15. RAPID’s Beliefs after Co-ref Resolution 1 To resolve co-references between c2, c3, c4, and c5 RAPID creates additional probes • Company c1 • 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • 1.0 Product p1 • Product p1 Copper Metal Powder • Category Nano-Copper • Form Powder • Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Company c2 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • .96 Product p2 • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Company c3 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • .92 Product p4 • Product p6 Inorganic Salt • Category Nano Crystals • Product p8 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Company c4 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya. • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • .94 Product p6 Co-refs .5 .6 c2 c3 .7 c4 • Company c5 • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading • .96 Product p8 .5 .5 .6 c5

  16. Probes 2 Find phone numbers and addresses of companies c2, c3, c4, and c5. Probe3 SELECT ID, address, phone FROM company WHERE ID = {c2, c3, c4, c5} REALISM returns the following evidence which is added to the evidence table (= ev27 (that (address C2 “No1-Block 2-Ferdos Complex-Pak St. -Sattarkhan St., Tehran, Tehran, Iran”))) (confidence ev27 .95) (= ev28 (that (phone C2 “98-21-88255207”))) (confidence ev28 .92) (= ev29 (that (phone C2 “9125599956”))) (confidence ev29 .92) (= ev30 (that (phone C2 “98-21-66905896”))) (confidence ev30 .92) ……

  17. Evidence Table 2 Every pair of companies has a least one phone number in common Companies c2 and c3 have almost identical addresses

  18. Additional Curiosity This lab equipment supplier has exactly the same phone and fax numbers as Pishgaman Nano Arya. The CEO of this company, Mr. Ebrahim Zadeh has the same name and mobile phone number as the Marketing Director for Pishgaman Nano Arya.

  19. Co-reference Resolution 2 The new evidence raises the co-reference probability past the .75 threshold RAPID creates a new company PNACO which inherits all properties of c2, c3, c4 and c5 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 Nano Lubricants PNACO inherits 4 products from the merger: p2, p4, p6, and p8 Nano Crystals Both p4 and p8 are Nano-Oil and can be merged Nano Diamonds p6 Product p2 is a specialization of p6 and subsumes it Nano-Oil p2 Nano-Diamond Powder (NDP) c2 c3 p4 c4 PNACO p8 c5

  20. RAPID’s Beliefs after Co-ref Resolution 2 • Company c1 • 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • 1.0 Product p1 • Product p1 Copper Metal Powder • Category Nano-Copper • Form Powder • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano • Pishgaman Nano Arya • Pishgaman Nano Aria. • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading • .96 Product p2, p4 • Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil

  21. Pathway Instantiation 1 • Company c1 • 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry • 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing • 1.0 Product p1 • Product p1 Copper Metal Powder • Category Nano-Copper • Form Powder PWY-nMetal-1 Probability 1.0 Company: c1 Process1: PWE-1 Product1: p1 Product p1 matches Nano-Metal; RAPID creates an instance of pathway PWY-nMetal and an instance of process PWE Since no other way of manufacturing p1 is known at this point, RAPID believes that this pathway instance has the probability 1.0 PWY-nMetal Process1: PWE Product1: Nano-Metal

  22. .48 .48 p2a (NDP coarse) p2b (NDP fine) Pathway Instantiation 1 (cont.) PWY-nOil-c Process1: HEBM Product1: NDP coarse Process2: Mix+Oil Product2: Nano-Oil PWY-nOil-f Process1: DetSyn Product1: NDP fine Process2: Mix+Oil Product2: Nano-Oil • Company PNACO • .96 Product p2, p4 • Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil PWY-nOil-c-1 Probability .48 Company PNACO Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Probability .48 Company PNACO Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4

  23. RAPID’s Beliefs After Pathway Instantiation 1 • Company c1 • 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry • 1.0 Product p1 • 1.0 Process PWE-1 • 1.0 Pathway PWY-nMetal-1 • Product p1 Copper Metal Powder • Category Nano-Copper • Form Powder PWY-nMetal-1 Process1: PWE-1 Product1: p1 • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • .48 Product p2a • .48 Product p2b • .96 Product p4 • .48 Process HEBM-1 • .48 Process ConDet-1 • .96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil PWY-nOil-c-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4

  24. Pathway Instantiation 2 PWY-ABT Process1: HEBM Product1: LPNP Process2: Coat+Toxin Product2: ABT • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • .48 Product p2a • .48 Product p2b • .96 Product p4 • .48 Process HEBM-1 • .48 Process DetSyn-1 • .96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil PWY-ABT-1 Probability .48 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p9 (LPNP) Process2: Coat+Toxin-1 Product2: p10 (ABT) RAPID creates two inferred products: p9 (LPNP) and p10 (Air-Borne Toxin)

  25. Identification of Critical Uncertainties Company c1 omitted • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • .48 Product p2a • .48 Product p2b • .96 Product p4 • .48 Product p9 • .48 Product p10 • .48 Process HEBM-1 • .48 Process DetSyn-1 • .96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • .48 Process Coat+Toxin-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Product p9 LPNP • Category LPNP • Product p10 Air-Born Toxin • Category ABT PWY-nOil-c-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-ABT-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p9 Process2: Coat+Toxin-1 Product2: p10

  26. Identification of Critical Uncertainties Company c1 omitted • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • .48 Product p2a • .48 Product p2b • .96 Product p4 • .48 Product p9 • .48 Product p10 • .48 Process HEBM-1 • .48 Process DetSyn-1 • .96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • .48 Process Coat+Toxin-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Product p9 LPNP • Category LPNP • Product p10 Air-Born Toxin • Category ABT PWY-nOil-c-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-ABT-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p9 Process2: Coat+Toxin-1 Product2: p10

  27. Identification of Critical Uncertainties Company c1 omitted • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • .48 Product p2a • .48 Product p2b • .96 Product p4 • .48 Product p9 • .48 Product p10 • .48 Process HEBM-1 • .48 Process DetSyn-1 • .96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • .48 Process Coat+Toxin-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Product p9 LPNP • Category LPNP • Product p10 Air-Born Toxin • Category ABT PWY-nOil-c-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-ABT-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p9 Process2: Coat+Toxin-1 Product2: p10

  28. Identification of Critical Uncertainties Company c1 omitted • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • .48 Product p2a • .48 Product p2b • .96 Product p4 • .48 Product p9 • .48 Product p10 • .48 Process HEBM-1 • .48 Process DetSyn-1 • .96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • .48 Process Coat+Toxin-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Product p9 LPNP • Category LPNP • Product p10 Air-Born Toxin • Category ABT PWY-nOil-c-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-ABT-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p9 Process2: Coat+Toxin-1 Product2: p10

  29. Probe Targets RAPID decides that t1 is the most cost-effective target

  30. Probes 3 Probe4 SELECT ID, category, company, particle_size FROM product WHERE company = {c2, c3, c4, c5} and category ≈ NDP • Find the particle size of Nano-Diamond Powder produced by PNACO • Because REALISM does not know about PNACO, RAPID has to use the company IDs received from REALISM • In the future, probes will not be limited to REALISM information requests

  31. Evidence Table 3 • Since company c2 was absorbed into PNACO, this evidence is used to update RAPID’s beliefs about PNACO • Nano-crystals with particle size of 5nm match product p2b – fine Nano-Diamond Powder hypothetically produced by PNACO • This raises the probability of p2b to 0.85 and lowers the probability of p2a to 0.15 • Next slide shows the effects of evidence propagation

  32. RAPID’s Beliefs After New Evidence Integration Company c1 omitted • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Coarse (> 50nm) • Company PNACO • 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano … • 0.15 Product p2a • 0.85 Product p2b • 0.96 Product p4 • 0.15 Product p9 • 0.15 Product p10 • 0.15 Process HEBM-1 • 0.85 Process DetSyn-1 • 0.96 Process Mix+Oil-1 • 0.15 Process Coat+Toxin-1 • 0.15 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 • 0.85 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 • 0.15 Pathway PWY-ABT-1 • Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder • Category NDP • Form Powder • Particle-size Fine (< 50nm) • Product p4 Nano-Oil • Category Nano-Oil • Product p9 LPNP • Category LPNP • Product p10 Air-Born Toxin • Category ABT PWY-nOil-c-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p2a Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-nOil-f-1 Process1: DetSyn-1 Product1: p2b Process2: Mix+Oil-1 Product2: p4 PWY-ABT-1 Process1: HEBM-1 Product1: p9 Process2: Coat+Toxin-1 Product2: p10

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