AO Forum. May 2012

1. AO Forum. May 2012

2. Policy Context • Government hitting mid-term, historically a difficult period • Economic forecasts remaining bleak for much of 2012 • Spending limits set to continue beyond current SR period • Overall direction set in Coalition Agreement, SRPs, Dept Plans, key speeches • Education a high political/social priority, extensive reform under way • Key signposts include: • CSR (Oct 2010) • Schools White Paper (Nov 2010) • Skills Investment Strategy (Nov 2010/11) • Growth Plan (March 2011) • Response to Wolf (May 2011) • HE White Paper (June 2011) • FE reform programme (August 2011) • Apprenticeship Quality Action Plan (Dec 2011) • Youth Contract (April 2012) • New regulatory arrangements (May 2012)

3. Current Picture for Education • Broad narrative established: structural reform + institutional freedom + core knowledge + targeted accountability = success • Reforming principles include: • Heavy focus on the quality of teachers and teaching • Learning programmes built around a long spine of Eng/ma • Curriculum re-balanced around essentials (for progression and mobility) • Development of new models of professionalism • Transactional model of implementation • Funding tied to the learner rather than programme • The learner/user becoming an informed ‘customer’ • Commissioning/joint procurement of essential services • Strong belief in the positive effects of an open market place • Desire to benchmark against best international standards

4. Six big challenges • Operating within a new funding and efficiency context • Re-balancing the curriculum offer • Securing high standards • Meeting new forms of accountability • Supporting transition for young people • Ensuring a smooth transition to new systems

5. 1. Operating within a new funding and efficiency regime • Details developed through Emergency Budget (June 2010,) CSR (Oct 2010,) Budget 2011 (March 2011,) Autumn Financial Statement (Nov 2011,) Budget 2012 • Context of bleak economic prospects, long-term cuts, efficiencies, value for money • Considerable re-designing of funding systems to accommodate context, extensive consultation period seeing funding shifting towards outcomes, ‘customers,’ core products via direct channelling • For schools: flat budgets, per pupil protection, increase in pupil premium, DSG remaining but growing primary bulge; new system 2013 • For 16-19: small increase on back of demographic drop, increase in apprenticeship volumes, support for NEETs and disadvantage, continuation of bursary system, new learner-based system from 2013 • For FE: continued tightening, grant provision up to L2, fee loan system from L3, simpler matrix with shift to outcome funding, direct Employer/City funding growing, developments under basic skill, innovation code and ACL provision • For HE: dual system as fee loan system emerges, protection for WP and Science/Research, burden loaded on Treasury initially, numbers control operating, impact assessment due end of year

6. 1. Funding context. 3 key developments • Budget 2012 • Direction of travel confirmed, squeeze to at least 2016/17 • Latest forecasts: growth 0.8% - 2.0%, inflation 2.0%, unemployment 8.7% - 6.3% • Next SR 2013, welfare, pensions, regional pay all in scope • Transition to (simplified) funding systems • For FE: Basic principles set Oct 2011, update March 2012, implementation August 2013 • For 2012/13: existing methodology but introduction of Innovation Code, piloting of JOPs, focus on progression in Eng/ma, minimum durations for apprenticeship programmes • For 2013/14: 8 x 5 matrix, rates based on credit rather than glh, app funded by framework • For schools: gradual shift to new school system post CSR; simpler local formula, earlier settlement, retention of MFG, escalation of pupil premium • For 16-19: lagged but shifting to learner-led, bursaries for disadvantaged, level playing field • Funding re - balancing • Individual investment through FE loans; Impact Paper May 2012, learner applications from April 2013 • HE investment through fee loans, knowledge exchange, research, global market • Employer investment through Employer Ownership Pilots, commissioned services, private market • Government investment through standard grants but also specific intervention measures such as RGF, City Skills Fund, Youth Contract, Growth Plan

7. 2. Re-balancing the curriculum offer • Emerging through NC Review, Wolf Review, 16-19 PoS consultation, Apprenticeship Quality Programme, VQ market Review • Focus on core subjects, essential knowledge, robust voc quals, essentials for progression and employability, new standards requirements • Context of increased institutional autonomy and desire to raise standards • For schools: subject to NC Review though emphasis on Eng/ma, EBacc subjects, linear assessment • For 16-19: emphasis on more coherent framework on Wolf principles, strong thread of Eng/ma, strengthening of apprenticeship frameworks, building of transition through work exp, A levels, BTECs, FL as before • For FE: development of voc ladder from basic skills to higher level voc provision, provision of QCF but increasing employer ownership of parts, strengthening of voc pedagogy and employer responsiveness, and pruning of qual volume

8. 2. Curriculum offer. 3 key developments • Emphasis on English and maths • Policy focus in schools, FE and apprenticeships • Pursued through inspection and observation arrangements • Exercised in assessments requirements from KS2 tests to GCSE SPaG • Supported by funding arrangements including progression-based funding model for basic skills, maths free schools • Reform of 16-19 Programmes of Study • Driven by Wolf reforms, emphasis on coherent package, common principles • Greater institutional autonomy, learner rather than programme funded • Emphasis on progression, interest in signature qual • Further development of qualification framework • Strengthened vocational rungs including higher apprenticeship route • More flexible ‘return to work’ provision • Diversification of HE provision to meet margin places • Piloting of community learning trusts • Review of qual market by regulator

9. 3. Securing high standards • Core part of the government’s transparency and public service reform agenda but also stick for reform • Applies to processes as well as performance levels • Fuelled by massive increase in volumes of data, increase in public scrutiny and devolution of ‘rights’ to the consumer/user • Current focus on the exam system, apprenticeship provision, school performance, HE regulation, government contracts, procurement activities • Considerable interest in new forms of reporting, simpler audit and regulatory systems, different forms of governance and management, international benchmarking • Set within intensive media climate and headline messaging eg: ‘dumbing down,’ ‘teaching to the test,’ fuelled by global challenges and political urgency

10. 3. Standards. 3 key developments • Reforms to qualification system • New assessment criteria for 14 – 16 performance table qualifications • Linear format for GCSEs • Benchmarking report and summer consultation on A levels • New powers for regulator, new arrangements for teacher seminars • Review of examination system • New quality standards for apprenticeships • Quality Action Plan announced Dec 2011 • Follow up series of Quality Reviews • New requirements on minimum durations, requirements for Eng/maths, sub – contracting • Ministerial hot line set up • Raising of teacher standards • Political desire to modernise the profession, greater mobility and flexibility • Interim Report on FE professionalism • Commission on adult education and voc pedagogy providing interim report by year end • Increased autonomy but stronger accountability generally through observations and inspections

11. Ofqual Qualification Reform Programme Key objectives • Develop a stock take of standards • Track grade inflation at GCE and A level • Build up evidence base through research, public confidence surveys, international benchmarking • Increase sources of expert advice • Review operation of the vocational market and employer role • Strengthen rules around academic market • Ensure continued security and rigour of exam system • Streamline, where appropriate, regulatory processes • Publish transparent qualification ‘maps’ • Work within prescribed budget Source: Ofqual Corporate Plan 2012-2015

12. Ofqual Qualification Reform Programme Specific measures ( subject to further developments from the National Curriculum Review and Select Committee Inquiry) Primary • Review operation of YR1 Phonics check • Conduct international benchmarking exercise on KS2 tests • Plan for implementation of spelling and grammar requirements • Longer term: work with STA to review nature of national assessments GCSE • Implement introduction of SPaG and linear routes • Complete any spec changes to Geog, History, English Lit, Maths • Review operation of Controlled Assessments • Longer-term: review design rules; develop clearer brand guidelines; review current grading system

13. Ofqual Qualification Reform Programme Specific measures A level • Follow up findings from international benchmarking exercise • Undertake consultation on A level structure and assessment • Consult on role of HE VQs • Conduct review of Functional Skills and ESOL qualifications • Review nature of QCF and employer requirements • Review standards and assessment arrangements • Longer-term: complete review of operation of the vocational market • Review, where necessary, use of titling

14. 4. Meeting new forms of accountability • Performance tables remaining but gradual shift in approach, less tabular more composite, emphasis on breadth not volume, focus on headline measures and more intrusive detail • Driven by increase in transparency and data, emergence of the Go-Compare model • New ‘technical’ criteria and equivalency system established for 14-16 tables, severe pruning of quals for tables, annual listing • Gradual escalation of floor targets • Retention of EBacc as ‘information’ measure • Further reporting coming on impact of pupil premium, destination measures, completion rates • Greater opportunity for user response through Parent View, CIS, KIS • New inspection regime focusing extensively on quality performance • New intervention processes for ‘failing’ providers

15. 4. Accountability. 3 key developments • Performance tables • Statement of Intent for 2012 tables due June, further information on wider reporting measures • New listing for 2014/15 tables confirmed March 2012, annual listing each November, focus on more transparent system, clearer equivalencies • Destination modelling (at 16) this year, formal reporting ( at 16 and 18) next year • Inspection system • Focus on T/L, creating improvement momentum, clearer reporting • Consultation on some significant changes for Sept 2012 including: new grading descriptors, speedier re-inspections, quicker turnaround time • Wider measures • Opportunities for institutional showcasing • Continuing interest in reporting on distance travelled and returns on investment • Streamlined QA reporting, simpler MLP, standard information sets and course information • Road map set for “a dynamic and de-regulated sector by 2015”

16. 5. Supporting transition for young people • A global trend but high priority for government • Part cyclical, part structural but against a bleak economic context • 3 broad concerns: school-work transition, work-readiness, regional ‘cold’ spots • Government response developed through Wolf Review, focus on Eng/ma, Special Needs Green Paper, Social Mobility Strategy, RPA and16-19 Participation Strategy, Youth Vision • Current response set out in the Youth Contract • Other measures include: • Reform of the VQ system • Development of apprenticeship route • Creation of 14-19 technical providers • Provision of work experience, internships, sector work academies • Support for NEETs • Creation of new careers and guidance system • Labour undertaking own review • Active area for policy solutions at present: Youth Commission, Demos, Prince’s Trust, CBI, IPPR, Barnardo’s, LGA

17. 5. Young people. 3 key developments • Latest employment picture • Broad trends set, minimal change in latest (Jan 2012 - March 2012) quarterly figures • Total unemployment at 2.63m, slight drop and some growth in private sector • 16-24 slight fall to 1.02m, NEETs at 958,000 • Apprenticeship starts up to 265,500 • Labour pledging Jobs Guarantee, Government pinning hopes on Youth Contract • Launch of Youth Contract • £1bn over lifetime of Parliament, builds on existing work exp measures • 4 elements: AGE; extra work exp places; sponsored opportunities under the Work Programme; outcome - based tendered projects to support NEETs • Introduction of National Careers Service • Continuing quest to strengthen advice and guidance • Statutory Guidance on new arrangements for Schools March 2012 • New universal service April 2012, range of functions, commitment to quality standards • Roles for LAs, JCP, private companies, Youth Inspiration Project • Focus on better use of social media and LMI • Review being undertaken by Ofsted, reporting 2013

18. 6. Ensuring a smooth transition to new systems For schools: • Diversification of provider side, increasing institutional autonomy, fewer intermediary agencies, more transparent accountability, updated professional standards with potential changes to pay structures and mobility For FE: • Increasing liberalisation to encourage new business and new partnerships, streamlined funding and audit arrangements, outcome incentive mechanisms, new customer facing accountability, devolved skills system For HE: • Emphasis on smooth transition to new fee system, continuing focus on widening participation and impact of fee burden, new accountability tools for purchaser, new regulatory framework, eventual lifting of lid on numbers and market

19. 6. Smooth transition. 3 key developments • Births, deaths, marriages • Simplification of landscape following ‘quango’ review, aim for greater accountability, transparency and efficiency • ‘Deaths’ include: BECTA, LLUK, RDAs, QCDA • ‘Births’ include: EFA, TA, LEPs, NCS • New ‘bedrooms:’ SFA, UKCES, LSIS, IfL • Transformation of supply side • Vision evident in 2 landmark Papers (Open Public Services, Social Mobility) • Desire to de-regulate, de-commission, extend choice • More flexible corporation structures and provider models • New sub-regional layer built around LEPs, City Hubs, Big Society • Increasing devolution to employers through EOPs, kitemarking and co-financing • Adoption of range of growth mechanisms including: Enterprise Zones, Catapult Centres, GIB, sector strategies • Stronger global connectivity

20. 3. HE developments • Annual grant beginning to reflect shift towards fee loan system: some ring-fencing (Science and Research,) some grant allocation (WP, SIV, high-cost provision) but reduction in overall teaching budget • Maximum fee level remaining for 2013/14, maintenance grants uprated in line with inflation • Financial health of the sector considered strong but some unease about how a future market might operate • Current model includes unfettered expansion extended for ABB, 5,000 added to margin places • Issues include: so-called ‘squeezed middle,’ growing debt burden, potential lifting of the cap, emergence of high – table, nature of regulation • Uncertainty remaining over requirement for legislation • Initial impact on recruitment patterns taking shape • Continuing tensions around access arrangements and impact on WP • Slight improvement in graduate market, importance of work experience/internships evident, premium remaining high • Retreat on PQA system but some refinements to admissions system from 2014, increasing emphasis on information and guidance for new recruits

21. What to look out for • The emerging shape of the new school curriculum • The impact of the current debate on standards • Potential development of new provider models • Youth employment and school-work transition • The impact of the fee loan system on higher level recruitment trends • Green shoots • Any Diamond Jubilee/ Olympic bounce • A happy ending