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ECMWF Status Report

ECMWF Status Report. Stephen English ECMWF. Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring Research topics related to satellite observations. Overview:. Main areas of activity at ECMWF. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP).

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ECMWF Status Report

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  1. ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF

  2. Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring Research topics related to satellite observations Overview:

  3. Main areas of activity at ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Environmental monitoring and modelling Historical reanalysis for climate research

  4. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) HIRES + ENS Monthly Seasonal

  5. Environmental monitoring and modelling Estimating greenhouse gas concentration and flux inversion Monitoring and forecasting trajectory of dust events Monitoring and forecasting trajectory of volcanic events

  6. Re-analysis for climate research Trend analysis of climate parameters Improved climatology for process studies Cleansed historical observation data sets

  7. Operational NWP

  8. The forecast model

  9. Grid structure of the Global operational NWP forecast model: (time step = 10mins) 91 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa) T1279 spectral resolution (~16km grid point spacing) 137 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)

  10. Evolution of ECMWF forecast skill ~125km ~210km ~63km ~39km ~25km ~16km

  11. The Assimilation System

  12. Operational 4D-Var Algorithm

  13. Operational 4D-Var Algorithm Flow dependent errors from EDA system VARBC term to correct observation bias Weak constraint term to correct model bias

  14. Overview of data usage

  15. Ground based / launched observations

  16. Overview of data usage SYNOP/SHIP/METAR: Meteorological/aeronautical land surface weather stations (2m-temperature, dew-point temperature, 10m-wind) BUOYS: Moored buoys (TAO, PIRATA) Drifters TEMP/TEMPSHIP/DROPSONDES: Radiosondes ASAPs (commercial ships replacing stationary weather ships) Dropsondes released from aircrafts (NOAA, Met Office, tropical cyclones, experimental field campaigns, e.g., FASTEX, NORPEX) PROFILERS: UHF/VHF Doppler radars (Europe, US, Japan) Aircraft: AIREPS (manual reports from pilots) AMDARs, ACARs, etc. (automated readings) Now within VarBC!

  17. Satellite Observations

  18. Overview of data usage

  19. Overview of data usage Level-1 radiances Level-1.5 products Level-2 products SBUV, OMI, GOME2 MLS, SEVIRI, GOES, MTSAT, FY, JASON RA, ENVISAT RA, MERIS, SCIA GRAS, GRACE, CNOFS, COSMIC, TERRASAR-X, ASCAT, OSCAT AMSU-A, ATMS, MHS, MWTS, MWHS, HIRS, IASI, AIRS, CrIS, SEVIRI, MTSAT, GOES, SSMIS, TMI, SMOS, WindSat Research Level-2* products CloudSat, Calipso SST / SNOW / ICE

  20. Overview of data usage Radiances AMSU-A on NOAA-15/18/19, AQUA, Metop-A+B, ATMS on Suomi-NPP (from Sept 2012) AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-19, Metop-A+B SSMIS on F-17, TMI on TRMM, Windsat on Coriolis HIRS on NOAA-17/19, Metop-A AIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop-A, CrIS on Suomi-NPP MVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2 imagers SMOS imager Bending angles COSMIC-1, GRAS on Metop, GRACE-A, Terrasar-X, CNOFS Ozone SBUV on NOAA-17/18, OMI on Aura, AIRS, IASI, HIRS Atmospheric Motion Vectors Meteosat-7/9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2, MODIS on Terra/Aqua. FY2 Sea surface parameters Near-surface wind speed from ASCAT on Metop-A, OSCAT on OceanSat Significant wave height from Jason altimeters

  21. Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/

  22. Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/

  23. Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

  24. Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring Out of threshold anomalies trigger alerts on web site and launch emails to key personnel prompting action

  25. New instruments: FY3 and Suomi-NPP MWTS Ch.3 ATMS Ch.9 MWHS Ch.4 CrIS 14µm

  26. R+D activities relevant to NAEDEX

  27. 1. Hyperspectral IR(McNally/Matricardi/Eresmaa) • New sensors: CrIS • Principal component assimilation • Improved cloud screening • Use of SW and O3 channels

  28. 2. Microwave sounders(Bell/Lu/DiTomaso/Eresmaa/Bormann/English) • Characterisation of bandpass drift in existing sensors • Improved microwave surface emissivity • New sensors: ATMS, FY3 • Observation errors

  29. 3. Microwave Imagers(Bell/Geer/Baordo/English) • All sky assimilation including AMSU-A channel 4

  30. 4. Satellite winds and Geo radiances (Hernandez/Bormann/Salonen/Lupu) • AMV error model and understanding • AMV QC • All sky Geo Radiances • Observing model error growth with Geo radiances

  31. 5. GPSRO(Healy/Harnisch) EDA analysis spread for temperature at 100 hPa Tropics N. Hem S. Hem • Tangent point drift • EDA experiments: sensitivity to number of observations • Surface pressure • Contributions to ROM SAF (ROPP)

  32. 6. Ozone(Dragani) Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2011 - 2012 +MIPAS Reference MLS +IR/O3 SBUV(21), 2011 – 2012 No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012 +SBUV21

  33. 7. Radar and lidar(Janiskova/DiMichele/Martins) • Preparing for EarthCARE using CloudSat and Calipso • Testing forward operator and adjoint assimilation code • Validating model clouds and physical parameterisations • Choices of observation error, QC and bias correction

  34. Summary • Data volumes / instruments continue to increase • Automated alert system now fully operational • Early CrIS and ATMS results are encouraging • Loss of ENVISAT was a major event, especially for ocean and ozone analysis • Principal component assimilation has been demonstrated for cloud-free scenes • FY3 characterisation led to very valuable re-analysis of errors in MSU and AMSU-A data record • EDA techniques used to try to estimate sensitivity of system to number of GPSRO observations

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